Blessed Weather
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Yet another weather front steaming towards the Alps, shown here on today's GFS 12z precipitation chart for 21.00 tonight.
Today's Euro4 output shows the front bringing snow to the French and Swiss Alps during Friday 21st Feb.
And by the early hours of Saturday 22nd the front has continued east bringing snow to the Tyrol region of Austria.
GFS 850 hpa charts show the 0c isotherm (freezing level) will be above 1,000 metres.
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Just to put a more positive spin on my post above, I've spent an hour today looking at lots of webcams around lower resorts and whilst the villages might be a bit thin on snow, there is indeed plenty of great looking pistes and skiing to be enjoyed above the villages. And no doubt aided by artificial snow making, it also looks like the runs back to resorts are being maintained.
Anyway, another good fall of snow moving into the Alps as I type. Some heavy bursts, judging by the intensity of the ppn shown on the GFS 06z run today:
The 850 hpa chart indicates the 0c isotherm will be above 1,000 metres.
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What a shame - looks a frustrating time for lower resorts. Below for example is Mayrhofen. Top picture is today, 11th Feb, and the lower picture is the day before. Whilst snowfall after snowfall is seeing good depths build at higher levels, runs back to the villages at the 700 to 800 metres level are clearly suffering from the milder incursions the current westerly sourced weather is delivering. Hopefully there's still some great skiing to be had on the slopes above the villages!
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Huge snowfall in the Alps over the coming days, including today. But closer to home, the Scottish ski resorts have epic conditions too - Jo's blogged about it here
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5665;sess=
Indeed, at the right altitude the snow keeps piling on - lovely!. But I think altitude is an important factor to consider if you want to get the best from a ski holiday in the Alps this year. Your decision could mean lots of soft snow with great skiing on higher slopes & resorts, or heavy, wet snow (or even slush) on lower slopes & resorts. Looking at webcams today, there was rain on webcam lenses at 1,400 m in Feldberg, Germany, and at 1,300 m in Brixen im Thale, Soll, Austria. The 4-day forecast on the Obergurgl/Hochgurgl website (highest parish in Austria) published Friday 7/2/14 sums up the on-going influence of the weather systems driven in from the Atlantic:
A very changeable and windy west- to south-westerly current will continue to determine the weather in our regions. On Friday night, new frontal systems will cross our regions and bring some precipitation. Further unsettled conditions will approach from the Atlantic and cross our regions in quick successions until Sunday morning. On Sunday, a strong westerly wind will result in changeable and partly sunny weather. On Monday, a stormy southerly foehn wind will set in at the mountains. Further frontal systems will approach from the Atlantic and result in continuously changeable partly showery weather conditions.
http://www.obergurgl.com/weather-forecast-winter
And the chart below from this evening's 12z ECM run for Friday 14th Feb shows the sort of 'mild' south-westerly flow that's not good for snow conditions on lower slopes.
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Grey skies and flat light today in La Clusaz (Wed 29th). Further to my post above and to confirm the forecasts of warmer weather in the Alps later this week, the Meteo France weather bulletins posted at the bottom of lift stations today says the 0 degree isotherm will rise from 1,000 today to 1,500 metres by Friday.
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Happy to report it's been a great start to my week's skiing in La Clusaz in the Haute Savoie. As uksnow reports above, I think the snow amounts have exceeded expectations. Meteo France weren't forecasting much but over the 3 days from Fri 24th to Mon 27th Jan snow fell each day and looks a good 20 cm on higher slopes. (I found the Euro4 model particularly good for predicting snowfall for 48 hours ahead).
After a mildish blip Sunday reaching +4c in the village at 1100m, today is sunny and cold and remaining sub-zero. Both on and off piste conditions are pretty good at the moment - fantastic skiing - but it does look like getting warmer later in the week.
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Hi Chris,I'm not an off-piste skier so will only comment from a weather perspective. As my post above suggests, the coming week is forecast to be reasonably cold and snowy in the Alps, so I would imagine good off-piste conditions would be found. However, will it last? If you've been looking at the Model Output Discussion thread you will see that there is a big question mark over what happens from late next week onwards. There is a strong possibility of a more mobile pattern setting up with the Atlantic influence gaining ground. So I guess the big question for you is, do I risk the Alps or play safe and head for the Rockies? (Presuming your "head west" meant just that). If skiing powder off-piste is a 'must', my decision would be head west. But check out the conditions at the chosen resort as (apparently) some resorts in Utah are actually short of snow!Planning to book a late deal next week departing on 1st Feb for by 30th on the 7th
Not really sure what to do ........ http://www.youtube.com/user/NoProSkiChannel -
Good to read the 'on location' reports from John H. in Wengen and uksnow in Kitzbuhel. Especially that snow conditions in both resorts are good despite the somewhat erratic winter that ski resorts have experienced so far this year.
I will be enjoying a weeks skiing in La Clusaz in the Haute Savoie from this Saturday 25th Jan so will also report from the resort. Looks like the Alps will become increasingly cold next week which is good news. It also looks like becoming increasingly unsettled as recent runs from ECM and GFS show low pressure becoming the dominant feature. With 850 hPa temps varying between 0c and -5c, there should be a fair amount of snow around, including down to resort level.
For interest, below is the Euro4 chart for tomorrow (Friday 24th Jan) showing fairly widespread snow across the Alps.
Finally - J10, I'm looking forward to your updates this week! Carinthian, any thoughts from the Austrian team about the upcoming weather?
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Happy New Year Guys! Hope you are all well and healthy. First of all, I would like to thank you for the incredible information you deliver above. it is very helpful for all ski and snowboard lovers! I am new to that thread, so I am sure I have a lot of reading to do
Now, I need your help on maybe an off-topic subject, but I would appreciate it if you could guide me in the following: I am planning a ski trip early-middle March and I want to be sure that I will not face snow coverage and depth difficulties..Could you recommend me some resorts to look at in French Alps (as they are closer to the UK) or in any other country if you have been and you think its great?
Thanks in advance,
Alex
Hi Alex,
I too am new to this thread and share your thoughts about the great info posted in here!
I'm a great fan of the skiing to be had in the high French Alps, I just wish the resorts were as pretty as Austria/Switzerland and the French did après-ski as well as the Austrians! I've got two recommendations for you. I've had great skiing holidays in both Val Thoren and Tignes and both are very high resorts with seasons that last until late April/early May.
Val Thoren is France's highest resort at 2,300 metres so should be pretty snow-sure in March. The resort centre is reasonably compact and there are plenty of bars and restaurants. And as part of the 3 Valleys (linked with Courchevel, Meribel and Les Menuires) there is almost limitless skiing to be had. Val Thoren is the only European resort I've been to with NO drag lifts (good for boarders?).
Tignes is at 2,100 metres and also has a glacier at 3,100 metres which is accessible by cable car or funicular railway from the resort. Tignes is so confident about its' snow, it stays open into May. There's a high speed chairlift that links Tignes with Val D'Isere, so again you have massive amounts of fantastic skiing. And as Val D'Isere is rather expensive, many people choose to stay in Tignes but enjoy skiing both resorts. Note that Tignes is not quite as compact as Val Thoren, with two separate centres, Le Lac and Val Claret (you can ski between them by day, or use the ski bus shuttle, but they are rather far apart to walk between at night). Plenty of bars and restaurants in either centres though.
Anyway, hope that's enough info to give you a feel for the two resorts. PM me if you wish to discuss further.
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I'm posting this weather/snow conditions update for the Savoie region of France for info. I ski every year at a small and friendly resort called Val Cenis. The village is at 1450m and skiing up to 2800m. It's the next valley over from Val D'Isere and from a few miles down the valley you can also get a lift into the 3 Valley's circus. The ski company I go with is run by a Brit who used to teach geography here in Suffolk before setting up his company 21 years ago. Now lives in the resort with his family and his young son trains with the French national ski team (but can't decide which country to ski for if he 'makes it').
Interesting that as per our own uncertainty for the upcoming weather next week, the local met office in the Savoie are also struggling with the forecast for beyond Monday 13th Jan. Below, copied from their website:-
Thursday January 9th UNCERTAIN
This past week has been exceptionally mild and largely sunny, with very little wind to speak of. The resort was full for New Year and now pistes are almost empty. Combine this with pretty good snow conditions and it’s unsurprising that the atmosphere on the slopes is relaxed and people are enjoying themselves.
The snow last weekend has improved off piste conditions considerably and the advanced group has had some adventures in the country, skiing in nice powder at times. Piste skiing has been a real pleasure, with space to cover the full width of slopes, and few skiers to worry about. Again though the mild weather has taken a toll on the south facing side of the valley, and the difference is marked when compared with the snow depth on the north side where our pistes are situated.
The forecast is for sunshine to dominate tomorrow and at the weekend, with a gradual fall in temperature. On Monday some snow is expected as a depression moves through the Savoie, but the situation after this is very uncertain as two weather systems are expected to influence our area, but as yet the meteo office in Bourg St Maurice is not clear as to what will happen.
What is more certain is that next week should again offer some great skiing on uncrowded slopes, so those arriving on Saturday should be looking forward to plenty of time on the slopes and some tired legs at the end of each day after clocking up plenty of miles!
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Interesting headlining story on Channel 4 News tonight showing the record breaking cold in USA. On Channel 4's website the coverage of the story includes a video.
http://www.channel4.com/news/us-snow-storm-polar-vortex-weather-deep-freeze-video
The United States is being gripped by record-breaking cold and snow as forecasters warn of life-threatening conditions and wind chill as low as 60 degrees below zero.
Icy conditions caused havoc across the midwest and thousands of flights were cancelled or delayed, days after the northeast was hammered by the first winter storm of the season.
Frostbite"The coldest temperatures in almost two decades will spread into the northern and central US today behind an Arctic cold front," the National Weather Service said on Sunday. "Combined with gusty winds, these temperatures will result in life-threatening wind chill values as low as 60 degrees below zero."
In weather that cold, frostbite can set in on uncovered skin in a matter of minutes, experts warned.
Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton ordered all public schools in the state to be closed on Monday to protect children from dangerously cold weather.
Chicago public schools followed suit - reversing an earlier decision - saying in a statement on their website that it would be dangerous for children to commute to school amid sub-zero temperatures and high winds.
Polar vortexThe NWS said the widespread chill was a result of a relatively infrequent alignment of weather conditions, allowing the Arctic polar vortex to be displaced unusually far south.
Forecasters warned Chicago and Indianapolis could see overnight lows of minus 12F (-24C), Minneapolis minus 29F (-34C) and Fargo, North Dakota, minus 31F (-31C). The coldest temperature reported in the lower 48 states on Sunday was minus 40F (-40C) in the towns of Babbitt and Embarrass, Minnesota, according to the National Weather Service. Between 6 inches and a foot (15-30cm) of snow was predicted from Chicago to Detroit, AccuWeather said, while icy sleet and rain was forecast for much of the northeast, where a brief thaw was forecast before intense cold returned late Monday.
Officials closed several Illinois roads because of drifting snow, and warned residents to stay inside. Roads in the midwest were particularly dangerous, and officials in Missouri warned it was too cold for rock salt to be very effective.
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I am thinking of booking a last min ski holiday to Nederau, Austria which is medium levelled at 800m - 1400m snow looks slightly patchy at 800m and I was wondering if it is likely to improve for 11th January which is when I plan on going.
Doesn't bother me too much as I can always head higher but friend is a beginner and they are restricted more to lower slopes.
Hi mullender83,
I've enjoyed 2 skiing holidays in Niederau, first one 1981 and again in 2006. On both occasions I've been very lucky with great snow conditions. Stayed in the Hotel Staffler. As J10's snow & upcoming weather reports suggest, the situation in the Alps is not ideal at the moment, but tonight's ECM T850 chart (below) for Monday 13th Jan at least offers some hope that early in the week of your holiday some decent cold air may (subject to verifying) be over the Alps. I'm sure some of the more experienced posters will correct me if I'm wrong, but -5 uppers on the T850 charts means it should be approx. -5 C at 1500 metres height. Even if no precipitation falls, should at least mean the snow cannons can operate for much of the night/day and enable enjoyable skiing. Anyway, enjoy your holiday and the wonderful Austrian hospitality.
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The new UKMO Euro 4 model available on the WeatherOnline website shows some welcome snowfall for the French and possibly Swiss & Italian Alps this Thurs 19th. Unfortunately (esp for Carinthian) it appears to miss the Austrian Alps.
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For Boxing Day the GFS 00z is suggesting the main chunk of PV will be slap bang over Scotland, presumably squeezed our direction by the Russian and Alaskan high pressures ridging polewards? Certainly stormy, but I can't help imagine what temps and snowfall the UK would experience in this situation if it wasn't for the moderating effect of the North Atlantic.
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A quick question - do you want the forecast I am doing on this thread or in a blog like last year, they are not in as much detail as last year, and that is why for the time being they have been in here instead,
So here or blog that is the question.
Hi J10. I've been enjoying reading your forecasts in this thread, so please keep them coming. I'm a keen skier and most seasons I'm lucky enough to squeeze in 3 trips to either the Alps or some other European skiing destination, so I'll be following (and hopefully contributing to) this thread as the winter progresses. This Christmas I'm off to the small ski resort of Feldberg in the Black Forest (alt. 1450m), so at the moment I'm very worried about the current euro high pressure pattern and forecast up to the Christmas period. Desperately hoping the upcoming more mobile pattern from next week turns out less flat than GFS projections and we manage a trough digging further south into the mountains. Come on this evenings ECM 12Z! Let's have a straw to clutch!
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Hi Paul,
I tried to make my first post with some charts today and followed your instructions from the 'Learners' area. i.e. I right clicked on the chart, went to properties, then copied the url. I then clicked on 'image' within my post and pasted the url into the box I was offered. Trouble was, the resultant image within my post was a full-page monster and not a small thumbnail like everyone normally posts. What have I done wrong? Many thanks in anticipation.
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Why does winter bring out the worst in everything on weather forums?Histrionics, panic merchants, doom merchants, tantrum throwing, toys out of the pram, shysters, so called experts, yarn spinners, trolling, wind up merchants, exaggeration, tabloid type sensationalism, childishness, complete denial of facts, wishful thinking, straw clutching, whinging, scriking, spit the dummy out...
I've been following the various Netweather forums for a couple of years now and thoroughly enjoy the great posts from many members. Despite the weather being a life-long hobby I'm still learning a lot from posters so thank you all. When I read the post from Weather-history this evening I nearly fell off my seat laughing. An absolutely spot-on observation. But do you know what? It's the passion that makes the Netweather forums the best!
On a more serious note, I think there are the first signs in various model output that the current zonal conveyor will come to an end during the latter half of November. Any future posts from me will try and add a bit more value in the way of reasoning, analysis and charts.
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Not really sure what to do ........ 
The Alps Snow thread Season 2013-14
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Hi Tim,
I see from your post in the Model thread that you're off to Pas de la Casa in the Pyrenees. I've never skied the Pyrenees, but taking a quick look at your resort it looks great! And with the resort being at 2,050m, any whiff of precipitation this time of year must fall as snow 9 times out of 10?
So I'm sure you've already picked up on the favourable model output for next weekend, with both ECM and GFS showing fronts coming in at first from a N'Westerly direction and then on a Northerly. GFS shows precipitation starting on Thurs 27th Feb and keeping going until Tues 4th March. And with both models showing the 850 Hpa 0c isotherm line well South of the Pyreness, it's got to be snow, snow, snow!
A couple of charts for next Saturday 1st March. Have a great holiday.