Lincslad
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Posts posted by Lincslad
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The showers are light and will remain largely light over next few days. Possibility of slightly heavier showers on wednesday eve, but not amounting to much. Sweet spots may include NYM, Yorks and Lincs wolds.
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GFS is useless and pretty much ignored by the pro's - particularly when considering FI. Its fair to say, cold is here to stay for a while yet, which seems to be supported by the majority of models. Its not unusual to see to surface pressure patterns persist for several weeks.
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Any showers towards the East Coast will be light. Only a few cms at best. Lincolnshire could see a few heavier ones friday/sat though. Any precepitation towards SW will be rain other than on Dartmoor.
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Most models continue with the cold theme through this week and Easter Weekend. The UKMO will be keeping a close watch on any developing North Atlantic depression and where, in the UK, it could affect. The bank holiday is one of the most important weekends economically, so any warnings would need to be as early as possible. At this stage through i would suspect low confidence of widespread snowfall. Key area of interest, is Cornwall and Devon - particularly, Dartmoor.
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If the system catches the far SW, It would potentially only be settling snow to higher ground - say 250m. Dartmoor, Bodmin and Exmoor, rain, sleet or wet snow to low ground and coastlines.
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I suspect very little change on the models over the next day or so, apart from the position of the low pressure on friday. Im most cases these are pushed to the south taking any adverse weather with them. Snow showers across Eastern parts, particularly though tonight, could leave a few cm in Yorks and Lincolnshire.
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The Metoffice will be very cautious over the upcoming bank holiday, so any adverse weather will need to mentioned pretty early. Currently, any attacking system on friday will fail to push the block away and, possibly, clip Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, bit at this stage significant snow is unlikely away from Bodmin, Dartmoor etc... But this could change over coming days.
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The cold air in place over the UK will retreat over the coming weeks with solar warming. This happens most years in central Iceland and Scandinavia even with a north flow mid spring.
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Yes, with the suns strength, any lying snow will thaw over next few days.
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/03/13 08z ----->
in Regional
Posted
If the fronts make it to the SW, it would largely be rain or sleet at low levels and coastlines. Settling snow could be an issue for Dartmoor, Somerset levels and maybe parts of S Midlands. However too early to state amounts. Cornwall and most of Devon would be wet.