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West is Best

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Posts posted by West is Best

  1. I'm not entirely sure what the point of this is? Are you disagreeing with the MetOffice analysis?

    'Peak gusts in the region of 60mph, perhaps 70mph in places and possibly up to near 80mph in one or two exposed coasts.' That, please note, will be the criteria by which this is measured.

    Windy enough for precautions and at the moment, based on latest observations, I see little cause to disagree with the Met Office warning from yesterday:

    1996059203_ScreenShot2019-03-03at07_25_34.thumb.png.cc1fd6de35607d2b979b653ff6e652f8.png

    Clearly in Thorpe Park you're not expected to feel much but this isn't, or shouldn't be, about NIMBY.

  2. Freya is developing and deepening rapidly. Look at this sequence over the last 4 hours:

    406809441_ScreenShot2019-03-03at06_46_26.thumb.png.f4d9dca8415bd281a7ce438f86026b3e.png

    888137566_ScreenShot2019-03-03at06_46_38.thumb.png.c2c66dfa3d7920ef230393e0de244c5e.png

    805289927_ScreenShot2019-03-03at06_46_48.thumb.png.47e252938fd6ee9c1442e2b463ea07e7.png

    851846145_ScreenShot2019-03-03at06_46_59.thumb.png.7c80a53032141b86052073e00a3c47d7.png

     

    I think the Met Office will be correct: peak gusts in the region of 60mph, perhaps 70mph in places and possibly up to near 80mph in one or two exposed coasts.

    Standard fare for Altnaharra, less so for Altringham.

  3. 25 minutes ago, Surrey said:

     

    At 6am the GFS has it at 990mb..give it 10-15mins and the live surface obvs will be at 6am 

     

    This would mean so far, the GFS is calling it right.. Arome and Arpege notorious for over doing wind speeds 

     

     

     

     

     

    In many years observing the weather I have never known the GFS be correct about UK storms. They either have ludicrously deep ones in mid-Atlantic, or ignore ones that develop and deepen late. This comes from a big fan of the GFS but it's definitely their weakest link.

    Met Office all the way on UK storms. Every time.*

     

    *Well apart from the obvious one that we don't need to go on about.

    • Like 1
  4. Well to Surrey in particular and my old friend The Pit, a certain rather well-known forecaster was once a tad cavalier about a rapidly developing storm  They're notoriously difficult to get right. It's these ones which develop at or over the UK which can be very potent. The rapidly deepening low is the one to be most circumspect about.

    50-60 mph fairly widely, 60-70 mph in the SW and possibly Midlands later and I don't mind betting we see an 80mph gust somewhere. That's worthy of the Met Office warning. So please be careful folks.

    • Like 4
  5. I don't have a problem about disagreeing with the Met Office but as many people use this site, could you please back up your remark with something rather more factually based? After all, this is the current Met Office position on Storm Freya which refers to possible injury and danger to life:

    1677862146_ScreenShot2019-03-02at10_21_18.thumb.png.add325c991ce5b47f6e84ef927666ddd.png

    • Like 2
  6. On 18/02/2019 at 14:18, Quicksilver1989 said:

    From the 06z I estimate the CET will finish around 7.2C so not too far away...

    Yes it's a long shot to break the record but I wouldn't be surprised if the MetO adjust the final figure upwards so anything within around 0.3C is going to be close. And there are some exceptionally mild (even warm) temps showing up on the latest runs. We might see 18C in the south this week.

  7. I'm not sure I can ever recall such a convincingly early start to Spring. Yesterday here in Exeter was quite extraordinary: I literally was in shorts and a t-shirt with the windows open. The models continue the theme. However, if you want a straw clutch, the ECMWF does appear to offer the vaguest hint of a more retrogressive Euro high which would introduce south-easterly rather than south-westerly winds:

    1402398691_ScreenShot2019-02-15at08_13_35.thumb.png.d5f7ae86539d9d5d2ded469695efb5bd.png

    As the ECM has been rather poor in the long range I'm not holding breath.

    So enjoy Spring! It won't last, of that we can be fairly sure. But by the time colder spells return we will be into meteorological Spring proper. That doesn't preclude snow events but, hey, you know the score.

    • Like 2
  8. Lots of very sensible posting today, if I may say so without sounding horribly patronising. 

    It's probably true for a lot of us that if we can't have a good snow event we might as well have Spring. The grey muck in between isn't a ball of fun.

    The 6z just continues the Spring theme. It won't last forever but we may as well enjoy it for now. It is absolutely glorious out there today in Exeter.

    • Like 5
  9. 34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Meteorological winter is Dec , Jan and Feb.

    All winter records cover those months . I’m really not sure why this new view of winter has taken off in here !

    Wow I didn't think my post would generate quite the response but I guess it's a sign of the pretty awful models for coldies. As I mentioned in the post earlier, we can still get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But there's no getting away from the meteorological fact that winter ends in just over 3 weeks and that the clock, therefore, is now ticking. I guess we all know this so it's perhaps unwise to repeat it too often (sorry). The 6z run is a gruesome affair. I suppose a crumb of comfort is that the high pressure isn't static, so it can't really be called a Bartlett. In fact, in the 6z it retrogrades to the UK before heading off to Germany .. which is coincidentally where Mrs May should be going. I suppose in theory a run or two might show it going further and dragging in an easterly. But this is clutching at straws.

    It's a tad grim. We're entering the latter stages of winter on a mild note with little obvious cheer.

  10. 1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    The only positive on the GEFS is there are some members dividing off a cliff towards the end . Up until then it doesn’t get much worse for cold . 

    6C2AC7AD-99B3-4CFD-8B0F-DBD6940DF1AE.png

    And the trouble is, the clock's ticking. We all know we can get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But meteorological winter ends in a little over 3 weeks 

    • Like 1
  11. 45 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    March 18th last year ... just saying 20180318_070710.thumb.jpg.1fc03de373e415c72735d91286190d37.jpg

    20180318_084300.thumb.jpg.9b1e00bf2ef2d53430dd516653f730fc.jpg

    Yes indeed. We might have a short 'first sign of spring' phase but that can just as readily be followed by 'heck it's still winter' right through March and even into April. In fact some of the heaviest falls I've seen have been in March. Last March in Exeter was an epic snowfall.

    • Like 1
  12. 2 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    Why? If they had paid attention they wouldn't have been stuck in their cars

    I've also mentioned previously that I think warnings should be issued further ahead, but the Met did a brilliant job.

    What astonishes me is how people don't pay attention. I told my Ex to leave Exeter early afternoon: I'd have left at 1pm and I said '3 pm cut off.' She eventually left at 4pm and only just made it back into north Devon through thick snow.

  13. Good point Kold (hi by the way). The UKMO gives a hint of what can happen with the (Bartlett) high sliding more into the Atlantic at the end of the run, which would potentially open up mid-Atlantic blocking and riiiiiiiiiiiight at the end of the GFS something similar.

    But basically there's no real getting away from the fact that the models are suggesting the first signs of Spring.

  14. Beautiful scene outside.  I just want to state what an incredibly brilliant job the Met Office / BBC / MeteoGroup did in forecasting this so accurately. Remember that the GFS had mostly rain and this was marginal, the Met stuck to their guns and went for it. The marginal nature can be seen in that for 3 hours it rained here in Exeter whilst it snowed 8 miles to the north-west in Crediton. Then even here it turned to snow.

    Impressive.

    @johnholmes

    • Like 2
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