[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Honestly the above really is extreme straw-clutching. There's almost nothing on the latest 6z GFS to suggest anything other than continued mobility across the UK. The T144 extension of the Azores high into a nascent high pressure forming over the Bay of Biscay is itself fairly fraught. But even if it materialises it does nothing to alter the south-westerly conveyor belt across the UK. We would need it extending 300 miles further north and I can see no sign of that?

I've been studying the weather for 45 years and I don't think I have ever seen anything like this. The idea that we are going to pass quickly from 1. The strongest jet core probably ever seen across the Atlantic, 2. One of the deepest Atlantic lows ever recorded, 3. The stormiest February on record, so far, ... into something blocked and cold seems to me quite implausible. The upstream drivers look to me to be continuation for the foreseeable future of the powerful jet and cyclogenesis.

I wish it weren't so, but I can't see much to restrain this westerly onslaught. It's astonishing, to be frank.

[Hill-walking weather discussion]

p.s. might bump into you as I'm doing part of the St Ives section in 4 weeks

[Hill-walking weather discussion]

I regularly walk the SW coast path (I've covered over 1000 miles by doing several sections multiple times) and, trust me, it would be bloody awful in these conditions. Nothing even remotely enjoyable.

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

Guess we will latch onto anything after what has happened so far this winter but I have to say that in any normal scenario what the GFS and ECM are tantalising at c. T216 (ECM) and T228 (GFS) would hardly get a second look. It may develop into something more substantial which often happens. At the moment we'll all seize it with alacrity but it's not exactly thrilling.

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

It remains a never ending mystery to me why the cold and ice lovers seem to feel that they deserve more than the rest of us mere mortals. As witnessed by the oft repeated saying, or words to that effect, "God, do we ever deserve it" at the possibility of crippling snow and ice sometime in the next six months. I mean, do they contribute more to the Cornish destitute fund? No; the survivors of the 47, 62-3 winters fund? No. So essentially they are just a bunch of whingers who are not getting their sweeties 

I do wish you'd get off the fence

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

The worst winter for cold weather I can ever remember.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

55 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Another day.....another set of runs going nowhere...



Above average right out to day 15. A lack of any rogue cold ensemble members. I only like to look a couple of weeks ahead as things can and do change quickly, so the last third of January is still up for grabs, albeit with very low chances of anything baring fruit.


 

Yep. It's pretty relentless right now.

The wettest autumn on record (hardly typical Mr Geordiesnow) is being followed by the most Atlantic-dominated winter that I can ever recall. The jet is ridiculously powerful.

So far, that is. Perhaps it will abate. Meanwhile, we continue to batten down the hatches.

 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

This is relentless.

Meanwhile, every Australian state hits 40C.

It's pretty difficult to ignore that AGW is driving our own model outputs. The power of the jet this whole autumn / early winter is something to behold. Every time you think it's about to relent, it roars back. Sigh.

 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

10 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Well after last night's 18z I thought we had another chance of something more cold. But looked this morning and we have a agreement now with a southerly wind developing just after boxing day etc. so any signs from last night seem to have disappeared and only one member off the ens goes to - 10 850hp.like many have said before me big flip need now for cold to develope. 

Not even the ensembles within themselves agree. Massive scatter and some significant colder members, with the operational right at the maximum extreme.

So let's ditch the despair please folks

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

Despair not at the 6z Operational ...

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

4 hours ago, swfc said:

Nope.gfs and ukmo look very similar and going flat.latest BBC live forecast just showed wet and windy weather from the west later next week.ukmo -showing the low

It's the form horse and we'd be foolish to bet against it. Flattening out across the models with only the vaguest glimmer at the end of the ECM. 

Sadly 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

Gawd bless the pub run. 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

Pretty interesting ensembles:

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

At some point one of these GFS operational runs is possibly going to take a very different tack. The spread is considerable, with some significantly colder members. The transition point appears to coincide with the synoptic setup around 27/12:

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

Not a huge amount of support for the GFS 0z FI transition. On the other hand, neither is it an outlier:

Models have been indicating the high pressure transition post-Christmas on and off for a few days. 0z ECM at T240 clearly shows the advent of the high retrogressing towards Scandinavia. The result would be something similar to the GFS FI.

So, whilst this is all rather distant it is definitely something to watch and hold on to in hope.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Richard

yes I do, and the UKMO model has been edging and edging colder over recent days, and that’s the one I’ll go with, couple more days too for further small steps.  
 

BFTP

Hi Fred,

Great to hear from you and it's good to be back.

Yes and what a wild period of weather. Snow at times over this week.

R

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

3 hours ago, Weegaz said:

The next couple of days showing good snow potential for Ireland, Scotland and Wales based on the updated Euro4

Sorry only just saw this. Ties in with my question 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

39 minutes ago, Dennis said:

with the forecast for tomorrow its a cool start of thursday morning

Yes indeed. And with each run in the last 36 hours the pivot has increased. Latest fax charts are showing almost an easterly on the stalled leading edge.

 

So does anyone think the snow potential for the borders / north is being slightly under-estimated?

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Of course it is.

You've taken one line of what I said and therefore removed the context of being locked into a slug Euro high.

Yes but you've said that we would need the zonal winds to drop. Which is it? The zonal or the blocked Euro high? The two aren't mutually compatible with halting cold over the UK until February March

It's December 9th. 

FI looks tasty on some ensembles. That's the -10C over London.

 

Meantime a lively week of weather with plenty of sleet and snow around.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

51 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We then need to wait for zonal winds to drop again in February/March for a proper cold spell to develop. 

 

Based on a lifetime of weather watching and 15 yrs on Netweather, this is a faintly ridiculous post. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

There should be little reason for despair. It's the first week of December and the weather is extremely lively. If it's only snow that floats your boat there's some of that in the mix this week. The more serious point is that mobility is much better than a stagnant dirty high. And there's some FI eye candy appearing in the ensembles too

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV snow possibilities for Wed/Thur/Fri.

Thank you for this. It's really good. Is there any chance you could post up some of later on Thurs e.g. 15h00, 18h00 and 21h00? Sorry to ask but it's Election Day and it's looking a bit fiery.

 

 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

A wild week ahead. For cold lovers it's not a bad one though. We remain for the majority of the week north side of the PFJ. Hill snow will feature e.g. on Wednesday. Lots of heavy rain and gales too. 

I'm intrigued about Thursday. GFS has a pretty flat zonal flow with heavy rain. UKMO continues to see a buckled jet with a northerly. ECM is literally halfway between the two.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

Interesting to see the orientation of UKMO at T120 is subtly different from GFS, delivering potential for a much more potent north-westerly on Thursday/Friday.

 

Contrast this with UKMO which is quite juicy: