Dusk1983
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Posts posted by Dusk1983
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I told you. Worse than expected. Like I said. Something about this is unnerving.Just hit 60mph gusts here, picked up very quickly.
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As a 30 year old man I am not ashamed to admit I'm a bit scared this evening, 4 storeys up here in North London.
Anec dotally, comfortably the worst storm of the year here and probably even for a few years.
Horrendous.
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Very odd today, getting on the tube at 6.45 in hot sunshine, walking out from the station at the other end at 7.30 with my sunglasses already on, exactly as I have for the last 4 months... but finding it almost dark already! Really struck me today, Summer has gone for another year. Personally feel ready for some cooler, fresher weather.
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Probably because it getting darker earlier feels like something closing in - approaching and closing in... trapping you into short daylight hours... In spring they draw out - releasing you into the freedom of daylight...
British people tend to be sedentary and insular by nature. They genuinely do not like being out there with strange people and away from TV, internet, fire and fridge.
Daylight isn't "freedom", it ruins their preferred lifestyle.
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Can anyone more knowledgeable make a synoptic comparison with July 2006?
Looking at the chart for back then, that was a genuine Euro high much further East, which I imagine created a hot tropical Southerly but other than the placement of the anticyclonic centre, the latest ECM and GFZ 00z don't look that far off to my novice eyes...
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Yes, though as some still suggest (and that we can see from some models), there is a chance of better weather from the 6th onwards. But I suppose the lesson I have learned is to focus on 'chance', and not to get too carried away - such as telling my son about heat at Glastonbury and the Mrs we would need a new barbecue, who laughed and said 'as if we will need that'...ha!!
Thing is, only a few days ago, netweather and many forum members were saying this weekend and most of next week would be glorious, and now, the models show a very average setup. So, though it is showing better weather from the 6th of July onwards, I'll wait until a few days before, to verify.
This has definitely opened my eyes, and I wont be jumping the gun from here on in!
As John said there are a small number of unbiased analysts here, but I'm afraid to tell you that the over-ridding lesson is nevertheless "nobody really knows".
In my opinion charts beyond 3 days - yes, 3 - should not even be available. They're no better than sticking your finger in the air. People posting charts at T168 and T240... sorry, it's absolutely hilarious.
Check the models for today and this weekend from the last 5 days. Only in the last 48/60 hours were they progging anything like the actual conditions. Further back than that, the elusive (imaginary) high pressure was progged as taking control delivering a largely fine weekend. It hasn't happened and I'd put money on it not happening, even in another 10 days from now.
As for the METO, their "5 day forecasts" change constantly, usually on the day in question. That's not a forecast. Sometimes you'll know the weather before they do and experience the "downgrade" before the "forecast" even reflects it!
As I say - nobody really knows. It's the future, after all, and our unique geographical position means the variables are simply too complex for any number of computers (our brains) to accurately predict.
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Have you EVER made a post that doesn't tell us how much you hate Summer?'Normal' service appears to have been resumed,then. OK guys,move along now,nothing to see here. Now the days are getting shorter can we ressurect the Autumn thread and forget all this warmth and sunshine nonsense?
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You've become quite known as a pessimist on the model output discussion thread, so your inherent, and indeed, never changing, pessimism/negativity is permanently untrustworthy IMO.
You seem to be a HIGHLY selective favourer of the most unsummery, wettest and rubbishist charts possible.
Such charts exist ATM, of course they do, but you're a stupidly obvious and in fact major dismisser of any more positive charts.
Watch this man's 'want to be negative' bias folks.
And yes, I do apologise for my personal remarks there, but do check someone's posting history before assuming any objectivity at all is possible from them ...
I think you need to get a grip of yourself. This is a weather discussion forum. We're just expressing our opinions on the weather. It's not life an death!
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3rd day of absolute, featureless dross here in East London with only tomorrow's rain looking likely to break things up.
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does this chart scream 12c and slate grey skies ?http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013061006/gfs-0-6.png?6 cos that is what it is here today, dear me, a couple of days ago the forecast for today was sunny and 20c, forecast was wrong by 8c, in winter when it is forecast to be 8c it never ends up being 0c but thats just typical of this climate
Shhh, Tony! It's really bad form to pull up old charts and, you know, actually CHECK how accurate they were!
I know that seems like it should be the only goal of forecasting...
...but actually it's much more fun to stay locked in the future, always over the hill and far, far away from any pesky verification stats to put a dampener on our day...
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Absolute dross here in East and South West London. I keep reading the weather is "set to break" this week, well it's already finished here in London. Dire.
Rain, wind, storms, convection - all are fine by me.
But when people talk about the UK's uniquely depressing weather, it's exactly these interminable, almost claustrophobic, solid grey skies they mean. The kind of day you don't get anywhere else...
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12 degrees, 70% cloud cover with some heavy and looking like light rain is very possible (East London)
Laughable that at midnight the MO was showing unbroken sunshine, 17 degrees with no rain until at least 1pm, in fact their app still shows that despite the reality. Effectively, in terms of prevailing conditions they haven't managed to issue a forecast for today.
Echoing what another new poster said on the day thread yesterday, nobody really has a clue with regards to the weather, do they? Sorry, it's kind of funny to watch the model discussion threads and talk of T120, T180, T240 and seasonal long term forecasts... We can't even accurately and reliably predict the next day's weather!
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Another woeful OVERNIGHT downgrade here in East London, now locked under 90% cloud cover. Forecasting reliability appears to be at rock bottom. Really poor stuff.
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I'm bumping this despite the general lack of interest (willingness?) to engage with the topic.
Another significant downgrade today (bank holiday monday) this time with the forecast changing OVERNIGHT from sunny to cloudy in the London area.
so, basically, no forecasting even happened. there was no forecast. No actual prediction, just changing the symbols according to the conditions out of the window. everyone may as well pack up and go home.
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hi everyone, long time lurker, first time poster.
I'll keep this brief - things that've been bothering me for a while.
If a 5 day forecast changes every day - as they often do - then it's not a 5 day forecast. It's a 1 day forecast.
What use is a 1 day forecast to the general population, who can have a look outside and make a decent guess themselves? Not much. This Sunday's weather in my area has just been downgraded - 36 hours ago it was looking like 20C+ and plenty of Sun. Now we're heading for c. 15C and cloud. So what was billed as a 5 day forecast is in fact a 3 day forecast, at best. After all, it may well change again!
It seems that many forecasters live permanently in the future.
I've seen a page on model verification statistics but there appears to be suprisingly little interest in them. Some forecasters prefer to keep making predictions about the future without ever putting those to the test in the here and now - not to mention being able to change them every day, if needed.
What are your thoughts?
Severe Atlantic Storms Over The Christmas Period #2
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Dusk1983
Almost no rolling news coverage either, given the fact most outlets are now on festive outage. All the reports finished late last night, while the worst seems to be happening right now.
As a result I think most people are severely under estimating what's going on.
Have never heard gusts like this. Although I was very young at that time, they sound and feel like 87. Obviously, probably not sustained like that.
I do have a feeling we are in the middle of a big one.