[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

I reckon we will have an epic winter. I reckon we will have a potential 1979 on the cards.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Perhaps it’s a rogue run with the models? I just hope our foe the Azores High doesn’t muck it up for us otherwise we need to ask for it to be flattened man made style.

Then again, it’s early in the game. November 2009 was mild and we all know the winter that followed that. 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

It's promising to say the least. I'd rather get the cold in,and build on snow for DJF. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

Don't forget the trend is your friend

That's lies! 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

I know predictions can go belly-up, and we’re still early in the game but I think we’re in a stronger position than we have been over the last few years.

I think this may be the start of a cold run similar to the one nearly 10 years ago.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

probably not. but if the trend of blocking and a disrupted vortex continues, jesus might get a white birthday....

That would be nice to see on that day! 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Some impressive ensembles - not in terms of deep cold but notable for lack of an organised vortex...

For example

I might get a white birthday this year then?!! 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

I just hope that’s a rogue model run for December. Can’t be living with that again. 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

I have confidence in the linkage posted by Paul  

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

18 minutes ago, LRD said:

I think CFSv2 is going for quite a cold November (I think) so let's see if it predicts a month ahead accurately before giving it 10 gold stars for a forecast 2-4 months out. I agree it doesn't look good though. Looking at the latest GFS, aside from the last few frames, it has the damn Azores High in the worst possible places. Again. It's relentless, especially in the autumn... but in the winter too to a lesser extent

 

It's all guess and conjecture. As for the Azores High, can we ask Kim-Jong Un, Donald Trump or Mad May to fire missiles at it to stop it ruining our winter? 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

I don't believe that chart from December. Seems set on a default setting. 

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

The Daily Express - a comic of a newspaper. Only followed by The Star as an even more “Oh my God, We are gonna die!” Paper. 

[Where have the long fetch northerlies gone?]

Perhaps we may be in the start of a new phase that began in August of a cool period? Granted October has been mild, but something tells me the four year mild winter saga is over.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

If anything,it's seasonal and that's what I want! 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

If anything I want seasonal temps, and I take it this is what the models are showing. I'd like snow, but it's a bit early especially for us in the South West. January would be ideal. 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I wouldn't say no to a winter like 2008-2009. It was certainly better than the last 4. February 2009 in particular was decent for snow, around here we got a good snowfall with some minor drifting from these synoptics below.

 

I reckon we'll get a winter like that one - a good snow spell and fairly cold - a "meet halfway" option. 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

5 minutes ago, tlo said:

 

I hope you are right, but you do not believe the forecast I have to ask why ?

I’m just a believer in what and see. I think the mild thing is just a default setting as the last four winters have been mild. 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

Strangely enough the February 2007 snow spell, I remember it very vividly. It was a welcome respite in a very mild winter.

As for the video above, I refuse to believe that forecast. I don’t think it will be mild this winter. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

I  do agree this ridiculous warm late October thing is getting a tad bit tedious. It's rinse and repeat every year almost. Then again, something will give in. October and November 2009 were very mild and gave us a cold winter, so who knows. Plus if there is another storm in the mix, that could knock the temps down to size. 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

25 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

It seems the CET's in 1978 were Oct= 11.9c and Nov= 8.5c. In 2009 Oct= 11.6c and Nov= 8.7c. So pretty similar. I do remember it been very zonal and mild in early Nov 2009 though. 

I know both occasions were very mild - obviously I wasn't alive 78/79, but 09/10 it was very very muggy and wet in the November. Can remember the day, I got a lift home from work (it was early November) and it was absolutely lashing it down! Was glad I didn't have to get the bus home! 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

Didn't October / November 1978 have warm temperatures? Then again, October and November 2009 were rather mild with a lot of rain (I remember moving house in the October and it was so warm it was like a summers day), and the rest they say is....history. 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

I think that Azores high needs a lesson teaching. Can't we fire a load of stuff at it to make it go away? 

[November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

A very safe 6.6

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

I don't believe that forecast. Unless there is snowy and stormy? 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Anything for Jan and Feb? Would be amazing if it came off. A February 1986 please.