NeilN
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Posts posted by NeilN
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1st February 2009 - Birmingham, UK
At the time, I remember snow was due to be forecast, but it wouldn't be until late in the evening / Monday morning. I wasn't convinced any of it was going to come off, and was due to meet an ex (we broke up the week before and were friends briefly until an argument) in the city centre of Birmingham to visit a museum.
It was cold - I was in a warm coat and hat and the sun was shining. As soon as we got out of the museum, it started snowing. It was coming down thick but only sticking a little bit. This was an example of me getting totally effing wrong! We sheltered in a couple of shops (my Dad's birthday on the 3rd so I managed to get a present), and decided it was best to get back home before it got worse. Luckily, as the train route covered both of us (me - Lea Hall, ex - Coventry), we both got on the same train and I got off at my stop saying we'll arrange something in a couple of weeks. It was still snowing and coming down. It was then starting to get thicker on the ground. I think by 4-5PM, it stopped. I thought it would melt away by the morning.
The weather forecast for the snow WHEN it was due (I actually watched the Countryfile weekly forecast to see what was in store) did come off. I went to bed about 11PM and it was coming down thick. I woke up the following morning to go to work, luckily I was covering for a morning at a local premises and it was like a Christmas card. I was woken up by excited kids playing out in their front gardens chucking snowballs. I posted my Dad's present after I finished from work. He's the lucky one being born in February (he was born 1963!!).
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This is either going to be a tactical guess or go horribly wrong.....
3.7c and 44mm
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Again so close...fourth overall for this season is pretty good going mind :)
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1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:
Our luck will change soon I think. Early 2021 is my prediction. It will stay mild until Christmas 2020.
I'm with you. I think this is the year the "shift" comes in. I can see this winter being an introduction like 08-09 to a spell of a colder ones.
As for the potential change from 1987, there's probably some truth in that. The one thing that does stick out for me is the very cold year of 1986. Was it a final farewell of colder times or were other factors a part of it? I know the very cold February was before Chernobyl, but could that have had an impact on the climate of Europe?
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13 minutes ago, MP-R said:
I guess we shouldn't be alarmed if we're seeing charts like this appear during November. After all, I'd expect it more in November than after New Year - it's the wettest month for a reason.
What we haven't had in a while is a benign first half of November.
November, the month where the song "November Rain" comes true.
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Are the US and the British Isles allowed to be in the freezer at the same time, or does one have to lose out? To be fair, in our case we win if that comes off!!
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2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
i agree apart from the blistering cold and snow for about 4/5 days winter 86-87 was kind of non descript and for me comes third in those trilogy of winters...hard to separate between 84-85 and 85-86 as to which comes top
It seems odd doesn't it? I understand 1947, 1963, 1979, 2010 (both start and end) but surely those two deserve their limelight? I would love to experience a February like 1986 in my lifetime so I can say I have experienced it. I'd love the winter like 84-85 as it seemed perfect from people's memories!
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From memory (BEST):
1990-1991 - Snow before Christmas, and of course *that* February
1995-1996 - The cold never gave in, and we had a fair bit of snow in February that year.
1996-1997 - The snow after Christmas
2000-2001 - It snowed after Christmas that year, and I am sure it was on and off as I remember my brother being born in the middle of January.
2008-2009 - The intro of what was to come
2009-2010 - Best winter I've ever experienced! Perfect in every way.
2012-2013 - Unpopular opinion, but it felt like a proper winter
WORST:
I think most of the recent ones, mainly 2019-2020, 2015-2016 and 2006-2007. I'd put 2010-11 down as a disappointment as the cold just vanished come mid January.
Bare in mind, I was born late 1984 - my parents mentioned about that three year golden run for winters. 1985-1986 does seem to be forgotten it seems and 1984-1985. It seems 1986-87 takes the limelight for that memorable January for some reason.
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I know it's a 1000-1 long shot, but what's the chance of a February like 1986 happening?
I was one when it happened, and have no memory of that winter at all. Just once weather fronts, let me experience it once in my life!!
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Too early to tell re: long range predictions for winter. Wasn't 2009-2010 predicted to be mild? Coldest winter since 1979 happened.
I think the "mild run" will break, but even if we get another 17/18 repeat or 08/09, it's better than most recent ones.
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10.6c and 89mm
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It's been mentioned, but "November Rain" by Guns N Roses is apt for November. Even in duff years, November is always wet. I just think of 2016 where it rained almost every day, and the floods around my 32nd birthday. I would apply the song from Mid-October to be fair. Unwanted memories of October 2014.
One for winter, especially January / February - "Bright Eyes" by Art Garfunkel. I know it was released in Spring (ironic it was #1 during Easter 1979
), but it has a winter feel to it. Plus, the song is very sad. Also keeping with a "dark theme" as winter is a dark season with the long nights and short days, "West End Girls" by The Pet Shop Boys. The sinister sounding music and lyrics.
Spring - In terms of recent events (lockdown), "Blinding Lights" by The Weeknd seems more appropriate probably because it has the lyric "The streets are cold and empty" reflecting those dark three months. Any other year and I know it's a bit of cheesy one as it reminds me of childhood a lot is "Who Do You Think You Are?" by The Spice Girls. I think it's because it's a song that is just kicking and screaming the spring warmth and changes and telling winter to "do one".
Summertime - I nominate "Carnaval de Paris" by Dario G. It must be the Brazillian feel that adds to the summer charm and the fact it was released during World Cup 1998! Throw in "I Love Your Smile" by Shanice - positive and uplifting, like summer.
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14.1c and 88mm please.
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Although it's probably unlikely, what's the chance of a February like 1986?
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14.8 and 111mm - the non-summer of 2020 carries on...
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4 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Gusty winds.
Manchester Summer Index is down to 182
Where is 2020 so far ranked?
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A very safe 16.1c and 80 mm. I think this July will be different from the last two.
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1 hour ago, mathematician said:
I don't think you are in the minority. I am absolutely with you on this.
I'm also the same too - I did predict this summer not to deliver, but that prediction has been filed into the dustbin now. However...I'm getting serious 2007-2009 vibes with the models.
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Well....my prediction of a summer without 30c breached is out the window! I'll eat my words!
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It does feel the warm spring could be a kiss of death for a good summer. I'm going for something like 2017 as a best-case scenario. A warm June, turning horrible into July. Some good spells in the first half of the month, and after that - crud, with the hope of an Indian summer in September.
What I reckon could happen is a wet summer.
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14.9c and 50mm por favor
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Is it cautious thinking that this milestone may not be reached this year? I'll eat my words if it happens.
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12.6c and 65mm please. We'll be gradually released from lockdown but greeted with the rain!
), but it has a winter feel to it. Plus, the song is very sad. Also keeping with a "dark theme" as winter is a dark season with the long nights and short days, "West End Girls" by The Pet Shop Boys. The sinister sounding music and lyrics.
November 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- the last month of this contest year
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The omens are there with one year