NeilN
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Posts posted by NeilN
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When was the last time a -16 / -20 upper hit the UK? 1986? 1979?
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So where are we at the state of play re: the weather?
I want some snow in Weston! Jealous of my relatives in the Midlands.
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The coldest February in a long time:
1.9c and 56mm
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Sadly, I think this is the sign of the times. You'll never get the weather we had before.
Sounds crazy, but what about nuking these fronts that are disrupting the cold? Perhaps a few up to the arctic could bring a man made SSW?
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2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
If only this would happen. One of the most beautiful winter months I ever experienced. Over here (Netherlands) there was almost no snow (which I don't mind) and we had our Elfstedentocht; 200 kilometers of skating.
That sounds lovely! I was only 1 at the time it happened, but my parents said it was a brutal winter month. Even if a watered down version more like 2010, 1996 or 2018 would be nice too.
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2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic paths to upgrade potential, is always a good scenario at the range we're tracking at this point. I like the fact it's around 20th-25th Jan also, one of the most likely times from climatology for long duration cold to set in. Almost every significantly cold February had its origins in a gradually decreasing temperature trend in late January, not always hitting very severe levels until near the end or into early February itself. I think that's where this is all heading, a severely cold February.
Completely agree with you. I think we're having a February 1986 repeat on our hands.
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Well, it seems the handsome Chris Fawkes has said it will possibly turn colder from Thursday onwards on the Countryfile Forecast!
There is hope, and a mild spell isn't the end of the world.
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If all this comes off with the models for a cold spell mid-month onwards, I can see a sub 2c month!!
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I know this isn't the right thread, but would this potentially throw a winter 85-86 outcome?
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How it's going so far, we're going to mild up for a bit - to be fair probably welcome for a lot of people, especially as we're all at home and got to stay in and save on heating costs.
I do think it will snow, but February looks the "magic month" - I'll go for a nationwide spell the first fortnight of the month.
This is more of an 08/09 style winter - decent, but better than what we've had.
Best case (if an SSW does deliver cold and other things go our way but who knows) - an 85/86 clone - the January is looking similar, though to pull that February off will need luck. Even a watered down style one with an average of 1.5-2.8c would be a "win".
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Just now, WINTRY WALES said:
Has there ever been periods where the US and us in the UK are in a cold (very cold) , snowy period for lengthy periods??
I think early 2010 had us both in the freezer? Possibly some of the 1980s ones? I know Feb 1991, the UK was in the freezer and they had an unusually mild winter.
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The thing is, these are predictions and I guess any outcome can come off.
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1 hour ago, Alderc said:
Looked at the radar first thing and just couldn’t help but think ‘what a waste’ endless convective showers being driven WSW on a cold breeze in the first week of January. 25years ago almost everything on the radar would have been snow. It’s been the same story for the last week now, wouldn’t surprise me if this theme continues and solid Synoptics are wasted.
It makes you wonder, is global warming neutering these fronts? Then again, perhaps it a case of wrong place, wrong time? I think this winter is more of an 08/09 than anything classic.
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It seems like everything is on the table regarding the weather. I do think this mild spell will be less potent, but with these SSWs, it takes a while for it to pay off.
To me this is more akin to early 2009..
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Just out of interest with the BBC and their Countryfile forecast - what model do they use? I know weather apps are unreliable, but for my location (Google's weather app) the highest is 4c, yet the BBC has me at 5-6c degrees for a couple of days this week. Are they seeing something we've not twigged on to, or is them just being a bit cautious / mild ramping with the temps?
Personally looking at the models, it doesn't look that bad - but there's a long way to go, and from history and personal experience February seems to be the best month for snow.
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2 minutes ago, Don said:
After the Januaries we've had since then, I would be more than happy with another January 2013!
Seconded. To be fair that winter wasn't bad and even we had snow down here a few times. If we get that, I'd take it.
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West Based -NAO good or bad for cold prospects?
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1.3c and 66mm
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4 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:
All 7s and 6s on the Bbc forecast next week . Not very good is it!!
Don't they have a habit of underplaying things?
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The BBC Countryfile forecast - where are they getting their temperatures from?
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Just now, damianslaw said:
Mmm you wonder if government new Christmas rules took account of weather forecast, I suspect may well have had some influence, people unable to travel back and being stuck somewhere else, emergency services, I would not at all be surprise and being serious.
This is what I had in mind. It does make you wonder, they've had an advance warning in regards to the weather but we'll have to see what happens!
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Perhaps the weather models are letting us get the cold the long way round? I do think January is the magic month.
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Each run is different and with anomalies.
Considering how bizzare this year has been, I am not ruling out any prospect of a cold winter. Perhaps the holy trinity of winters could see a new challenger? Remember December is not realiable.
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Yes the models seem to be a bit dull and lifeless, but isnt it too early in the game?
I'm sure many a good winter have started like this and have built upon it. As long as it stays dry and is cool is what matters.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
All I'll say if them uppers did come off - wow! Didn't February 1986 have that as well?