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trevw

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    Alps & Pyrenees Snow Thread 2015/16

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by trevw
    addition

    On 3/1/2016 at 10:02 AM, Blessed Weather said:

    Is it this coming weekend you're off to La Plagne trevw? I'm off to Val Cenis and I'm rather excited about how things are shaping up! Last Saturday I posted the Arpege snowfall accumulation chart for Sat/Sun/Mon for the Alps and it was showing over a metre for large swathes of the mountains. Running the same chart this morning, it's showing a further metre plus between this morning and next Saturday morning with the French Alps and our 2 resorts in the sweet spot! Ski Club forecasting 144cm for La Plagne and 101cm for Val Cenis over the next 9 days.

    'Zero' hour accum ( with resorts marked) 56d5641992718_Arpege0zSnowAccumTue01Mart T114 Sat 05 Mar 07.00 56d564a842ea8_Arpege0zSnowAccumTue01Mart

    Freezing level a little bit up and down with this week's snowfall, but any resort or slope above 1,700m looking very good. For our arrival weekend freezing level falls below 800m. And at the moment the models are suggesting a cold week for our stay with the -5C 850 hPa isotherm (so approx. 1,500m) over much of the Alps virtually all week. Should be a great week's skiing with plenty of powder to play in on higher slopes (but care needed - avalanche risk likely to be high off piste).

    It is! very excited :-) Thanks for the above - it looks like we will have a great snow... My kids have been a couple of years running but always with 'old snow' and frozen off piste areas.. not enjoyed the pleasure of floundering around in deep powder - am hoping for a week of 'clear-ish' weather (the odd top up snowfall evening/night would be nice of course :-)  )

    My only concern at the moment is getting to the resort given the forecast on Saturday!

    Good point on avalanche risk, I might skirt the edges but don't do much real off piste so should be okay.

    Looks a bit wet low down on the webcams at the moment, looks like from tomorrow it will be colder..

     

    Have a great week!

     

    • Like 2

    Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    An overstated feedback.

    The ice decline is mainly in late summer when sun at high latitudes is very low and strikes the water at such an oblique angle very little radiation will penetrate.

    Furthermore, open water will lose a great deal of heat to the air above.

    The heat loss almost certainly exceeds any supposed solar heating.

    Understand the point on angle (although as the melt gets earlier and earlier this is changing to an extent), but as you say heat lost will be to the air/atmosphere in large part and so retained in the system?

    Model Discussion January 18th

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Lets hope the GFS is either overdoing that low in the atlantic or it tracks further south as on its current course it will do us no good in terms of a cold pattern.

    I have a vague memory that the GFS tends to overdo lows and that the northward motion of the low is related to it's depth in which case you would get both wishes?

    Arctic Ice Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    This whole climate change reminds me of religion.

    I bet that the people that believe that we are causing it (sin) and can somehow reverse it or prevent it getting worse, are on the whole religious.

    I bet that people who are not convinced, who require more convincing evidence for the pro man made warming stance, who think that perhaps this could be nothing unusual in the grand scheme of things, are on the whole generally skeptical atheists.

    The Climate Change Industry is a golden goose to a lot of people, and it's Church is the Met Office, who deliver regular sermons.

    There will be exceptions to my belief/non belief, theist/atheist theory, before anyone says "no, it's not true for me actually/ no, it's not relevant"

    Sounds a bit like you are saying that "anyone who believes that AGW is significant is a religious nut. But if you believe in AGW and not God you can't disagree because you are an exception" ? :-)

    For my part I'd say some of the more uncompromising viewpoints on both sides have more than a hint of 'religious fervour' about them and that rhetoric without scientific proof should probably be ignored.

    Arctic Ice Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    In your scenario we have miraculously over-ridden all natural drivers and have become more powerful than nature - we haven't.

    Agree with some of the rest of your post, though I think you may exagerate the level of some of the unknowns as a lot has been done in these areas..

    But what do emotive statements like this one even mean? In what way are you measuring 'Power'? With a bit of actual effort I am sure mankind could sterilize the planet, put the climate back into an ice age or any number of things that would demonstrate a level of significant 'Power' over the rest of nature - on the flip side 'Nature' by which I guess you mean all things not a result of mans activity? Can wipe out populations with tidal waves, volcanoes, disease etc. It's not really measurable unless you narrow down the point of comparison?

    Fortunately, despite appearances, we are not 'actively' trying to trash the planet, so what is more interesting is to what extent the side affects of our activities are nudging nature in a direction it would not otherwise have gone. Whether the climate system is in some kind of generally stable equilibirum or a meta-stable equilibrium with many different possible 'quasi-stable' states and maybe even some completely unstable states (hopefully not).

    To me your comment suggests an assumption that 'natural drivers' work to maintain an equilibrium and anything we do has to 'override these' and seems to include some anthropomorphising of our climate system in a Mother Nature/Ghia like direction. There are good reasons to believe that there are alternate less icy 'quasi-stable' states for our planets climate as they have occurred in the past. And no reason as far as I can tell that our activities couldn't (if continued) move us towards one.. That's not to say they will - but they could, and the level of perturbation required to do so may be less than we would wish (or greater than some fear).

    All the while that the ice levels in the arctic trend towards a roughly linear decline it doesn't seem massively unreasonable to extrapolate? This may not continue for ever - it may accelerate or recover (hopefully). Might be a bit fatalistic, but given human nature and the short termism inherent in all of our government structures I suspect we will see minimal action without some kind of crisis, so I imagine we will get to continue to watch until it goes one way or the other..

    T

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Ive always wondered, why do the models not "come out" until a good few hours than their time? Like, I notice the "12Z" obviously means 12:00, but we don't see it until around 4pm. Just a newbie being curious :closedeyes:

    had always assumed that 12z refered to the time of taking the data sample on which the run was based/time of starting model run - then you have the time to run the model against the data and produce the output..

    Empty Cone Above Winchester On Radar - Artifact Or Real?

    in Help, support and feedback

    Posted

    Hi,

    I realize that the radar is not perfect and wouldn't expect it to be - I have noticed however that there is almost always a cone shape on it's side over winchester that doesn't contain precipitation.. anyone know whether it is a radar artifact (no coverage or something blocking the radar) or a real gap in the preciptation perhaps caused by some geographical feature (we do seem to get generally less precipitation here than elsewhere - especially basingstoke than just down the road). I've attached an image that shows the gap..

    cone.jpg

    thanks

    Trev

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ooooh you are so close! I'm on Burley road. You on the main bereweeke road in one of those posh houses?

    No flakes of snow this end. That or I was too slow and missed it lol.

    afraid not..some really nice houses up there! am between bereweeke avenue and weeke school just off stoney lane on the side closer to town.

    it was only about 3 flakes and haven't seen any since..:-) According to the netweather radar a sizeable amount of snow should be falling in bournemouth... anyone?

    I'm lost ...

    went round that loop twice myself, should that read "new thread. Old thread here..."?

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ooooh waitrose! Where about's are you in Winch? I'm at the far end of Harestock so I have mini tescos. Otherwise 15min walk up the hill for me to waitrose.

    How was the supplies there?

    over near weeke/bereweek so about 5 mins for me - plenty on the shelves no evidence of panic buying yet! (am a regular at the mini tescos as well)

    Still have frost in the shadow of all the houses here so perhaps being that little bit colder than the actual coast will help - am sure we will wake up to something but it would be great for it all to fall as snow so we can have several inches of snow..

    talking of which.. just saw a flake!

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