draztik

@Summer Sun it’s up to 19.2C as per latest met office update.

Extraordinary!

Sigh. no context. Just a photo? Pls elaborate for new and existing members.

For Ireland, in particular, these are the setups they can only dream about. West is best and any breakdown is post 14+ days by the looks of it. Great to see it!

It is the same year in, year out. If this does fail, give it a week or so... and they'll be back for the next great adventure. I ignore the thread for the most part at this time of year.

The positive SST anomaly around the UK and France .... is this a driver to what we're seeing? And Im wondering if this is why we are seeing these strong & never ending positive heights indicated for autumn & winter 22/23.

This is what the seasonal ECM is forecasting for Autumn. Sadly, the horror show has a while to run yet if this is anywhere near to panning out as shown. Also, JMA & Met office also showing similar to this. I suppose this is why they have been suggesting this could linger into next year re drought.

Met office don’t seem to recognise that temperature.

Time and time again, the GFS is routinely binned for showing Synoptics that look ‘suspect’… however, we have all been here before. It’s the golden rule of model viewing.. esp w/ regards to the GFS. Once it picks up a trend, and builds on it with each successive run… you know something is afoot. Hopefully next time when it does this again, it won’t be so unceremoniously binned. However, I won’t hold my breath!