Gaz1985
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Posts posted by Gaz1985
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Oh, you never know... February is on average colder than December, so the measly difference in sun angle will be compensated for.
When was the last time we had a bitter cold February? probably 1986? it's been one of those months where it's been difficult to achieve, proper.
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EC seasonal highlighting a possible -ve AO pattern in Jan/Feb in particular, so perhaps any cold weather later on rather than early winter.
That's good news, if any snow falls in February it will melt quicker than December, a green Christmas anyone?
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Decent weekend looking almost nailed on now with strong high pressure, away from Scotland and N Ireland the wind will be light so in any sun it will feel very pleasant indeed.
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The recent GFS runs have not looked as good as what the ECM and UKMO have been coming up with- the high pressure on the GFS 18Z is not as favourably placed as it is on the runs from the ECM and UKMO if it's warmth you're after. Fingers crossed that the GFS starts to come into line with the others in the morning.
Away from Scotland the wind is coming from a warm source and not from the North or Atlantic, continental Europe is still warm at this time of year.
GFS temperatures' haven't changed for days. Still looks good to me.
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The pressure increases as we move into Friday
Saturday looking good with strong high pressure
Sunday looking similar, overall a decent weekend, make the most of it
Into the new week and the high pressure is still dominating our weather and get's joined by the one in the Atlantic, yet another great run tonight, time to get outside and enjoy the fine weather when it arrives while you still can, overall warm or very warm depending where you live
(apart from the likes of North Scotland and Shetland who will be closest to any lower pressure)-
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Not sure if I already posted this but here goes, what a good spell this was 2 years ago, great pressure
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There is zero correlation between a hot spell in September in the UK and the forthcoming Winter. Did the freezing cold Spring presage the superb July? Of course not. Does the cold few days we are having presage a freezing Winter? Of course not. To compare:
...and 2011...
Not much in common there (apart from the rather shapely ridge over us). In fact, the 2011 chart screams raging polar vortex versus the 2013 arctic high. But again, no conclusions can be drawn because you know, it's September.
Chill out dude, did I say a mild Winter was definitely going to happen?, nope all it was was wishful thinking on my part like the other poster said, god forbid it did turn out mild all hell would break loose in here considering the majority are cold lovers
, anyway enough of this bickering some great weather for late September coming up to enjoy!-
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It could work the other way Gaz, settled and warm spells in late september and early october have historical links with cold and snowy winters, the experts are expecting significant northern blocking to take hold again as we head towards winter which indicates something similar to last winter or even something more severe such as nov/dec 2010.
It could do yes, but I think Winter it's still way out in FI for anyone on this site to make any proper judgement yet, I certainly won't, I bet the Met Office have a good idea though....would be interesting to see what they see.
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Most Septembers have warm spells like this. Its perhaps just wishful thinking on your part. I don't remember the last 3 winters being particularly mild?
2011-12 Winter was mostly mild apart from a bit in February. It's been mild at the end of September but apart from 2011 I can't really recall many proper warm or very warm ends to the month at least not here, in the south east probably but not here, the early part of month yes it has certainly been warm. And yes of course it is wishful thinking for me to want a mild Winter, what's so wrong with that? others have been ramping up cold charts way out in FI a few months away. So I'll do the same with any mild charts that come my way thank you, as the mods say.... if you don't like what someone posts then there is a block feature
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Incredible 12z ensembles for Manchester and very dry
, I wonder if could this be de-ja-vu in terms of the following Winter? a very warm end to September 2011 brought a mostly mild Winter. -
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One of the best Winter charts EVER, mouth watering Bartlett Pressure and direct very mild SW winds. Manchester reached 16 degrees that day
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GFS 18z still showing strong high pressure this weekend, looking great
Still in control into Tuesday with it shifting a bit westwards
By Thursday the high pressure moves back east slap bang over the UK, great run tonight
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How's that?
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That's a real nice ridge of pressure
don't know what all these dense fog comments are about, even if fog forms it won't last all day in September it will soon burn off to leave warm sunshine, 4-6 weeks from now then it would last a lot longer, oh and where's humberto?? -
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Friday looking good for the pressure increase..
Saturday more pressure..
Sunday too, fantastic GFS run, possibly a great weekend coming up with strong high pressure
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After the shocking Dec 2010 who would of thought the following Winter months would give us some fantastic mild weather to enjoy, in fact February was like a pre 2008 Winter month
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The suns out here now.
It always amazes me how many times a miserable Sunday brightens up at about tea time, just when it too late do do anything with it.
Yes true that, clear skies here now
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Very pleasant if this came off
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A thoroughly miserable day here, can't wait for the high pressure at the end of this coming week.
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Nope don't intend to yet either indoor temperature is 17.5c at the moment in the room I'm in which is just fine.
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CFS has flipped this afternoon to its less cold side
Blocking shifts to the east In January not the first time CFS has had this
Let's hope northern blocking gets eradicated altogether this Winter
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High pressure nudging into the UK on Thursday
Azores pressure increasing it's influence into Friday...
Saturday we have 1020-1025mb high pressure over us and with a slack flow away from the far NW it will feel nice and warm in any sun
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Haha I guess some people forgot that I posted a glorious Summer 2005 chart on the previous page
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But is that really a favourite archive chart? With all the glorious summers available? If someone posted a dismal wet cold July chart and claimed it as an all-time favourite, I would question their motives, wouldn't you?
For a Winter temperature it's about as good as it gets, so I'll take that, it was 15c here today so for January that is fine in my books
, anyway enough of this bickering some great weather for late September coming up to enjoy!
Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
But it wasn't a sub zero CET month Gavin like December 2010 or February 1986.