irishlad69
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Posts posted by irishlad69
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the cold always seems so close, and then BANG, it gets shoved out of the way, we seriously need the North Atlantic current to break down around the beginning of November every year, we just need to figure out exactly what controls it ?
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When forecasts are not accurate after 5 days what really is the point in "long range forecasts" they are utter tosh!
totally agree, 100%
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I do believe that we are going to get a winter like 08/09, I am basing that on my gut instinct and seeing now what we seen during 08/09, I cannot believe that so many people put their trust into the charts & science, when in the past both have been wrong, instead they should just say what they feel is going to happen, sorry if that sounds strange but I have had a few vodka & cokes, lol
, I am just really looking forward to a white Christmas and everything is pointing that way, -
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AO will stay positive this winter?? Dr. Cohen’s method has changed. He used to look at total snow cover at the end of October. Now it’s the rate of change of the snow during October. That makes a difference this year, so, even though the Eurasia snow was the 4th most ever recorded, the rate of change wasn’t very large.
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-232835491.html
The AO is currently negative, so I do believe he is wrong
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may I ask everyone's opinion as to which chart is the best to look at overall, but let me stress I only believe them up to 3 days
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well I have just had a mixture of rain, hail and snow, so the weather doesn't even know what's it wants to do, lol
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I find it amazing that one chart says one thing and another chart says something else, not two charts say the same thing after 3 days, but yet people still go by what they are saying 10 days - 2 weeks down the road, charts are only as good as the data is put into them, but after 3 days they are useless, our climate/weather system is that sensitive not even models can tell you what's happening.
The other thing is that even the great almighty MET Office has said that this November has been on average 3 degrees colder than last November, does that tell you something, I believe that we are going to have a cold winter, and a white Christmas.
I also believe that the winter of 09/10 was so cold was caused by the BP oil leak clogging up and nearly stopping the North Atlantic Current, I could be wrong but that's what I believe.
Come on winter, let it, let it snow, let it snow,
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yeeeeeeeeeeeeee haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, its snowing heavy, and lying, get in,
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That Paul Hudson post from Gavin kind of backs up my argument, and Express haters are shooting themselves in the foot by talking about them on forums like this because any publicity is good publicity, and I tell you now, I know this from living in an area with a very high elderly population, the Mail and Express are the 2 most read papers around here and no matter how many times they get it wrong, they have a loyal readership which wont change paper, most who read it even laugh at the headlines and then turn the page to read the more respected columnists on politics and sport etc, etc.
I do realise that old people are slow, however for you can be there when every single OAP reads the front page of their paper, laughs and turns it straight over must mean you are extremely fast, or you all meet up in a hall somewhere and ask them to turn all at the same time,
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Sunspot numbers are not high at the moment, and solar activity today is low. It has been up and down the last 6 weeks at least, but certainly not consistently high.
I am no expert in all this stuff and I am still learning, so 200+ sunspots is not high, and does it matter what type of sunspots they are?
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can I just ask all those who have slagged off certain newspapers (express etc) and forecasters (Mr Madden and Powell) for their snowmageddon predictions, if they are right, are we going to see a massive apology from you all
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I have got to admit and even repeat myself, nut the extremely high sunspot numbers are worrying me a lot, I do believe they have a say in which way our weather goes
, I really do hope I am wrong though, PLEASE GOD LET ME BE WRONG -
Met office ensemble mean maps out and high pressure is now shown to sit over the UK for winter
As a result of the high pressure we have below average rainfall
850 temps slightly above normal
2m temps slightly below average for England and Wales, slightly above for Scotland
So the met office are going for a very quiet and settled winter, just jamstec left now before we have them all in for the final time before winter
Had a look beyond winter and that high doesn't shift
Jan to April its still over the UK
As a result rainfall remains below average for the 5 months those maps cover
well if the met office says its going to happen, then it will, (NOT),
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And all of a sudden winter is over and it's only the 17th of November.......
totally agree with you there, people seem to give up way to soon
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the ECMWF seems to be giving it colder than the GFS, is that good or bad, I mean in the terms of which chart is better of course, is it just me or does the cold seem to be winning and keeping the warmth at bay as the month goes on
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back to the weather, and this is just my personal view, and with NO SCIENTIFIC EVEIDANCE, I believe in my heart, and yes I am a coldie lover that this winter will be very cold, with heavy snow, and that's for the whole of the winter period, not just certain days, weeks, or months.
At least all the above is just what I am wishing for
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Disagree with your point about the met office imo the met office do a fantastic job and they certainly do not have a terrible record with things further than 3 days out
well that's me told how can I ague with such a comeback as that, that is sarcasm if you didn't notice
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one thing I have noticed about people on here, is that one moment your saying this and the next your saying that, for example
1. when it comes to all the models, one moment your saying they are wrong when they say its going to be cold, and when they say its going to be warm they are right. I think its time people made up their minds if they believe in the models at all, not just when it suits them. seriously anything an further than 5 days max is useless, but yet some people are looking at 3 months away
2. when people slag off certain papers and forecasters (and I am no fan either), and say they are scaremongering etc, but when the Met office says something then its got to be right and yet they have a terrible record for forecasting when its any further than 3 days out.
all I am saying is that to many people seem to sit on the fence on here, and whatever way the weather goes they will be able to say, I WAS RIGHT,
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if the charts are correct, and that's a big if, going towards the end of the month the cold
seems to be winning more and more, and yes I know its a long way out, but we can always hope -
i think people should stick to the topic at hand, THE WEATHER, an not pick on certain individuals, regardless of what they is happening in their area, unless of course you are there at the time,
, GROW UP, -
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I have noticed the sunspot numbers are decreasing hopefully this will have an effect and go for a colder winter
and thats only my personal opinion, just in case people ask for evidence-
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Can someone please direct me to the correct models showing this,as I can't find any freeze next week. :-)
maybe they are just saying that the temperatures next week are going to be much colder compared to how warm its been, but as usual papers blow it out of proportion just to sell papers. or maybe they know something we don't, lol,
, I am just really looking forward to a white Christmas and everything is pointing that way, 
, I really do hope I am wrong though, PLEASE GOD LET ME BE WRONG
seems to be winning more and more, and yes I know its a long way out, but we can always hope
, GROW UP, 
Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
where are you getting that from, what do you think the charts are trying to say ?