[Winter 2015/16]

I find it rather amazing how many people are writing off winter and we are not even in November yet. The fact that models are showing no signs of cold is a good thing. Every year they show cold and and it never comes off. Maybe this year our cold will come out of the blue, just like it did in 09/10. Writing off winter this early is ridiculous!

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Got a feeling upcoming cold spell is just massively hyped up and will disappoint many. Can't believe they are already saying a return to westerlies next week! What a joke. Temps don't even look that cold for my neck of the woods and even further north. Met are saying highs of 5 degrees on Sunday, hardly arctic weather is it. 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Sadly it seems the models are still very good at predicting zonal sh*te but awful if anything cold is possible. They have been laughable and as for the OPI, well nice theory but yet another busted flush it would seem. The polar vortex is king and stuck in the same place every time.

I'm not one to give up normally, and there is still plenty of winter to go, but I am fast losing faith. Long range forecasts seem to always be wrong unless they predict westerlies it appears!

 

The current forecast is for at least 2 weeks of below average temps and wintry showers. Is that not good enough for you? 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Well after many years of reading the Mod thread I have now finally come to the conclusion that it's best to stick to the Met 15-30 dayer for a basic idea and sod the rest.  I'm fed up with the constant highs followed by the invariable lows of looking at the runs on a daily basis.  And I certainly won't miss seeing the expression 'going forward' being typed as well as being heard a miilion times a day!!

 

Agreed, there is an awful lot of tripe that gets spouted on here these days. 

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Been snowing in central Scotland all morning and it's actually lying! Got a good feeling about the rest of this winter. It's already much better than last year which was absolute rubbish for snow unless you lived on the top of a munro. 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Met office are saying mild to very mild temps well into February. WTF!

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

So what happened to all the positive chat that was going on in here last night? Have the models turned mild again?

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Anyone else concerned about the 30 day met office forecasts? pretty much no mention of cold.

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

It's maybe a positive the models aren't showing cold. Least we won't be let down again and we'll all be happy if they flip to cold

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

I'm not writing winter off, just saying it needs to buck it's ideas up before Feb, latest mo update is once again very uninspiring for coldies.

 

Don't forget March as well. Maybe our winters are just going to start later from now? I hope 

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Anyone writing off the rest of the winter needs to get their head checked out. For all you know the models could flip to cold tomorrow. Just a gut feeling but I really think the SSW will be our savoir this winter and models will start picking up on it sometime next week.

It's been rubbish in the south so far surely?
Further north a few wintry days out of 33..room for improvement.

 

Maybe has been rubbish in the south but as I type this message it's 1 degrees here and has been snowing on and off all day. 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Getting a very bad feeling about this winter. Final nails hammered into coffin tonight for any prospects of a 'real deal' cold spell before mid January I'd say. 100% agreement on zonal at days 6/7 and at least ten days from that point.

 

Looks like one of those winters where we just need to hope we squeeze one cold spell worthy of the name.

 

Lay off the sherry.The models don't even no what's happening after 3 days so I'm not sure how you can come out with something like this. 

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Got to laugh at some people on this forum. Just last night a lot of you were saying we are guaranteed an easterly. Today the same people are saying we are not. Kinda confusing to newbies and people who can't read charts. I don't know why people are analyzing charts that are outwith 5 days. The next 4 days are going to be cold pretty much everywhere in the UK, after that we will just need to see what happens

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Even if we do get an easterly will it actually be any good? Europe isn't very cold right now.....

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

The fact that the met office are hinting about a pattern change to potentially prolonged cold at the end of the year is huge. They have been pretty accurate so far this winter. I wouldn't worry too much about what the models are saying right now. 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

I've got a bad feeling this winters Synoptics are looking more and more like a Bartlett setup with us missing out on the cold yet again! Can't see the low heights around Greenland disappearing UNLESS we get SSW in the reliable timeframe! Rant over

 Missing out on the cold again? There has been at least 4 days of snow lying in lowland Scotland so far and it's only the 14th of December. 

[Winter 2014-15 thread]

It's encouraging to see that the met office are hinting towards colder weather in the new year. Their outlook doesn't mention the word mild anywhere. 

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

Met office having none of it - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-an-arctic-freeze-snowstorms-the-most-severe-winter-in-years-probably-not-says-met-office-after-cold-weather-warnings-9890202.html

 

So biased towards mild weather

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Met office having none of it - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-an-arctic-freeze-snowstorms-the-most-severe-winter-in-years-probably-not-says-met-office-after-cold-weather-warnings-9890202.html

 

Met office seem rather mild biased these days. Must be trying to kid people on that global warming actually exists. 

[Early winter hopes and chat]

This feels like November 2010 all over again....... I hope

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Got to admit, I am really concerned that the met office look a head forecast mentions nothing about cold, not even for Scotland. Can anyone remember when they picked up on what happened in 2010?

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Are the charts today looking as good as last night?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Are the charts today looking as good as last night?

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

So begs the question, was the BP oil spill the main cause of the cold winters back in 2008,2009,2010?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

The only positive thing I can think of at the moment is that the charts are clearly all over the place. Hopefully they are just getting grips with the seasonal change and will hopefully start being a bit more consistent soon.

 

Ps - Is anyone fed up of Brian Gaze? He comes across as a mild troll sometime on his Twitter account. He's one forecaster that really gets up my nose!