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    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    But its been well advertised that no cold pattern, if it was going to occur, was likely at all until at least the end period of January and more likely into February. I know I have said that myself countless times. 

     

    The way I see it is completely the opposite  - it shouldn't be a surprise at all that we are still waiting and could well have to wait for a little longer. The period in question hasn't even arrived yet and I've considered the recent missed easterly and the borderline one under the microscope for potential snow next weekend a large bonus if they occured against the background pattern. I've said that so many times as well on this thread..

     

    Its strange and rather a new experience to find myself seeing the model output meeting expectations whilst it seems to be frustrating and disappointing so many others. There may be no guarantees that the changes occuring will lead to snowflakes over the UK down the road, but whilst none of us are prophets, lets at least wait till the period in question before venting so much frustration and making so many snap decisions. Its only the weather !Posted Image

    It's not only the weather when your starved of snow in 'season winter'. !!

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I agree with quite a few on here. Tamara I'm afraid we can't all think positive, we've done that since November! The models are absolutely rubbish right now for snow chances. I just can't believe how poor this winter has been! It's quite frankly unbelievable! Can anyone believe how the AO has just gone from mega neutral to mega positive! Typical. I too think that's at least half of fen gone now. We're guaranteed nothing from a warming!! Sad times

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It seems to me that were all straw clutching at the slightest changes in model output in the last week or so. The ecm last night was a glimmer of hope but is now more or less back to square 1. The charts frustratingly seem to be stuck in a rut with the uk in no mans land and in n out of milder uppers compared to East and west of us.
    I for one think it's game over for this winter because the met office have resumed there status quo forecast well into feb (when days get longer and the sun stronger). They have mongreps and other information at there disposal which is obviously showing no potential. Whilst at the same time we try to find any crumb of comfort from the ecms easterly and gfs NWesterly etc which just simply is very unlikely to come to fruition Posted Image So a very poor winter in my books.

    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    With their wealth of extra information that they have access to, compared to what joe public get, i'm more than happy to go along with them, regardless of how tricky the situation has been. Their short to mid-range forecasts have been fantastic through Autumn and Winter!

    So true!! And whilst everyone on here is hope casting for February, the met office have already practically nailed it off constantly as pretty much 'status quo'. Rubbish winter!Wouldn't it just be fantastic to just see the met office outlook using terms such as/ widespread snow, severe cold, blizzards, drifting etc. we can only imagine. Ps. Did anyone ever save the wintriest outlook they've ever put/had?

    Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    No offense Steve, but I stopped reading after your first few sentences as I knew where your bias and repugnant tone was headed...I observe all the models and the ensembles. Your bias for cold clouds your overall judgment and your ability to communicate with people who do not always see it as you do. Back to the models, UKMO does not look good for heights to our NE. Wish we could see its next frame.

    You never have anything positive and upbeat to say about chances of. Old and snow so why not lighten up and listen to what Steve says who knows more than most on here inc you and me
    • Like 8
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