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And it turned to snow briefly here in north leeds as it got down to 2.2c
Snow falling again
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Temp has dropped 3.6 to 3.1 here 150m
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Oh dear. Like I thought. The models/atmosphere aren't providing us with much hope
that's why I said we needed these charts to fulfil quiet side if Christmas on here. Just to think back to 2010 at what we were looking at...... If only again
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Another early crock from ECM as per last year but UKMO was never on board and I agree with Steve Murr, we need that model on board with the ECM for confidence in stellar outcome...never mind, it is still only November. winter hasn't even started.....but I get the feeling that December is going to be a long month on here.
BFTP [/quote
It doesn't matter that the winter hasn't started etc. the Pv is cranking up and may not get similar charts again.
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Trust me on this one. This pattern will stick for a while. Eventually the high will allow in the west or south west.Few weeks....? Got any evidence to suggest it will last that long apart from assumptions?
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Boring few weeks of settled but at least cold weather. Nothing wintry though.
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It gets me quite frustrated when people keep saying -it's not winter yet, these charts bode well for later on etc etc. well actually they don't. The model output right now was potentially showing some very exciting 'potential' cold conditions!! We may never see similar Synoptics again this season. It is also perfectly normal for snow at this time of the year.
If the current output by the gfs continues to grow and gain support then I can quiet easily say that the next 3-4weeks at least will be pretty much uneventful if you like snow and cold. (Okay maybe slightly frosty). Then were talking winter rolling away before our eyes in no time.
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I would have thought we wanted to see that storm push under any high into Europe to push up the high and give lower heights. If it goes to Greenland doesn't that scupper this surely!
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Interesting by Fergie there.
Come on 12z's give us something exciting and not downhearting.
Please also can some in here be slightly more optimistic rather than pessimistic. Usual caveats......
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So in summary....??? We still get the ec runs tonight though??Just so everyone knows ECM is undergoing an tomorrow (Tuesday 19th) along with the EC32 http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_40r1/
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Ukmo looked great until 144
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What is the point in potential updates and reading from the background signals because things can and have looked decent but at the end of the day it looks pretty simple from continuing model output and stratospheric input that the over riding signal is for milder zonality because the PV continues to be far too strong
doing us no favoiurs! Remind me of this post if I'm wrong.-
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It's crazy how in this day n age of technology the models still and will always continue to struggle and disagree with each other at such short range! Most especially in interesting weather changes/patterns.
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the answer was in the post.
& I do believe I have ignored all the shi*e runs from the GFS that topple the high at day 5/6/7 & so on....
Maybe its because ive seen it all before from the models & there bias......
but just to say it again the ECM looks to be forcing to much northern arm jet energy into the block forcing it to topple just like yesterdays ECM.
The weather isn't MESSY very often- usually its seemless transitions.... The ECM is very messy.
No since POST 2009, where the Euros seem more clued up with blocking but the GFS eastward bias still remains the All hail IAn ( or GFS) suddenly fails day in day out....
So what I read for the last week......
Toppler, sinker, flat & zonal coming, its all over soon- all from Ians posts actually was lead by the GFS- which of course is wrong.
** IF YOU KNOW THE BIAS YOU KNOW HOW TO PLAY THE MODELS *
The ECM is likely to be wrong tonight, it has ZERO continuity with the ECM 00z suite or Mean, or the UKMO or the 00z ECM operational.
Your welcome to question why I discard it, however its Always for good reason, not just because it doesn't point to cold.
S[/quote
You are 100% correct there! Couldn't have said it better.-
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Decent
Can you please not comment on it when its only out to t72? Two posts above, one says it's more like the UKMO and the other says it isn't...[/quote
I agree!! And looks colder to me]
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This might sound stupid but how? I went on profile n no edit button etcWelcome aboard, ARNOTT...Please can you pop your location into your profile?
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First post after years of following this forum.
The problem we have that not everyone is seeing is that the previous outlook by the models has looked great but now not so great. So point being-any of these good Synoptics need to happen because we are NOT guaranteed it again even later in winter.
that's why I said we needed these charts to fulfil 
Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
1.9 and snow falling here north leeds at 150m