crazysnowcatz4
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Posts posted by crazysnowcatz4
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Well below freezing in Canterbury at the moment , my weather stations is actually warning of snow,,, radar shows the weather system trying to pivot but the showers seem to evaporate just after leaving the channel and meeting the really cold air. Beeb presenter warned sleety rain and mentioned a possible light covering on top of ice by the morning which won't be fun, take care on the roads and pavements when you get up.
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The GFS 6 is trying to raise our hopes with a final sleety event lasting pretty much any time from 6.00 PM tomorrow until midday Monday. It really would be ironic if this turned into more than it should be as it seems certain that the Atlantic will then roll in a blitz any further hopes of snow for the year. ( and I know snow is possible in late March , April etc but it seems very unlikely now ). For me the Wind direction looks wrong for this to happen until late Sunday may be Monday when we get a NNE wind which should at least bring a chance of sleet and may be a final streamer of the year. How bad that we are hoping for sleet, and I concur that warmer weather would be preferable to sleety / cold rain..
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No sign of anything red or pink on the radar at the moment. Interesting to see how the London heat mass effect turns even the sleety rain straight back to rain as it approaches London. Temperature here has dropped away to around 3.9C now, after plummeting at points in the heavy showers and then rising as warmer sectors of air passed over. Must think that the snow warning will be removed for the SE corner unless something dramatic changes. All I can see is the possibility of some transitory snow Friday 3.00 - 9.00 AM , I suppose it will be a pain as it will occur during the rush hour which could explain the weather warning. and then almost the same again from 15.00 to 18.00 which would also not be pleasant.
Weekend doesn't promise much , except and this is a big if Monday morning 0.00 - 9.00 AM , maybe a south coast affair, if it gets cold enough.
Keep on watching and hoping.
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Radar shows rain turning to snow on the trailing edge . The sleet >> rain boundary is slowly moving east as temperatures slowly drop away. Showers currently over Birmingham could be heading our way for around 4.00 PM ish . Despite the weather warning the BBC forecast hasn't got much instore for here with the GFS only showing a limited possibility for some snow / sleet.. I suppose it depends where the low is centred and how quickly it pivots. However surely on Saturday afternoon until Sunday 3.00 am there must be a fair chance of some kind of streamer which could bring localised snow. Looks to be favouring northerly coast this time..
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17 minutes ago, Updraft said:
just had a pretty decent squall here in Dover, one moment it was calm and the next blowing a gale with torrential rain almost horizontal, it turned to sleet since with a few moments of snow which has settled around the frames of the windows.
Similar in Canterbury ,
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Yes the Mackley had snow on her forecast for tomorrow, think this is being over egged. Friday looks very complicated. The origin of the cold air is from France / continent , it curls round a low pressure and then cuts back in from the west.
Lets keep watching.
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Met O has weather warnings for snow for almost the entire North and West and country , with only the center south not covered.
They don't go for snow, anywhere in our region atm. GFS still goes for outside chance of snow Wed evening, early Thursday possibly very localised. The increased chance comes Friday over the weekend still ,favouring more North and Westerly regions. Really we need to wait 24 hours and see how equivalent models compare and how they perform tomorrow.
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While it is the more unreliable member of the family the 6z GFS shows a possibility of a sleety event tomorrow. Perhaps in the morning favouring the western and central edge of the region but with a westerly flow this seems unlikely . Just perhaps the far SE could prove cold enough tomorrow evening for the rain to turn to snow and perhaps be more prolonged. While I don't predict any laying snow there does seem to have been a pattern for something like this to occur for a few days now. NW UK and Wales are set for a snow event on Friday morning, and we could catch the tail end of that on Friday.
Again it will be a NW flow , which never favors the far south east . This on / off possibility of a wintery mix could continue into Sunday. Again would have been great in January , much more marginal now but at least in a reliable time frame.
No promises and this probably is the last chance saloon.
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Meto and GFS concurring with a possible sleet / snow event for SE corner for Wed 9.00 PM but as it is from a NW flow I have little faith in that particular scenario. Slightly better direction for Sat evening / Sunday suggested by GFS. Will be very marginal either way, but as I suggested yesterday in 14 days the chance of a snow day will have decreased by 75% on average so we should take what we can get now.
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27 minutes ago, snowrye said:
Seems the kent streamer is in full effect,how ironic as we enter into march soon,bah you couldnt make it up
Have to agree completely , I have seen this kind of set up deliver many inches of snow, but sadly that was January and a degree or 2 makes all the difference, having said that more inland areas could well get a smattering of snow, I'm guessing around 20 - 30 miles inland minimum as it is currently just too warm near the coast. Interestingly the BBC SE and national forecaster completely omitted /admitted to any chance of precipitation of any type over night in the SE even though it has been present for 3 - 6 hrs by now. While I have no belief in a "snow cut off date " if you look at the facts the chance of snow rapidly decreases once March starts from around an 8% chance at the start of March to around 2% once you get into mid March. So if nothing happens within the next 7 - 14 days it really is highly unlikely to do so. Having said that I do remember walking to the local church in the snow at Easter with it up to the top of my wellies and recently driving to the airport at Easter through a snow storm. So all is not lost....
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Amazing actually seen it snow , all be it very briefly in Canterbury, now turned back to rain but hey , beggars can't be choosers.
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Radar shows that most places except far east of kent got some snow last night, initially heaviest snow seems to have been in paddock wood area and east sussex a brief spell of heavy snow over Rochester, sheerness around 3.00 . Sussex then got a rainy / sleety , snowy mix
Better than nothing I think
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2 hours ago, crazysnowcatz4 said:
If it is to believed the radar shows the snow falling in areas around 2C up north, the band of ppt is quite fast moving It covered the distance across the whole of Birmingham to Coventry in around an hour. So I expect it to be around Milton Keynes by around 6, Luton around 7.
North London around 8 , Rochester Medway around 9 , Canterbury around 10 ish... all guestimates of course, should be plenty cold enough to snow by then , if and it's a big if any ppt survives.
It really is the wrong direction for snow for this region , to a large extent , but probably best to take what one can get.
Seems to be going to plan radar shows first snow in Luton (ish ) 6.25. seems to be sinking south, seems to be very intense in Leeds mind you.
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If it is to believed the radar shows the snow falling in areas around 2C up north, the band of ppt is quite fast moving It covered the distance across the whole of Birmingham to Coventry in around an hour. So I expect it to be around Milton Keynes by around 6, Luton around 7.
North London around 8 , Rochester Medway around 9 , Canterbury around 10 ish... all guestimates of course, should be plenty cold enough to snow by then , if and it's a big if any ppt survives.
It really is the wrong direction for snow for this region , to a large extent , but probably best to take what one can get.
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The North sea showers do seem to be taking a more southerly path atm rather than bending out into the channel however this would only give very light snow/ sleet /rain and very localised..
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The clump seems to be sinking south presumably as the low pressure system driving it sinks south as well.
The problem for the north and east of the region is that the path of the ppt will take it over the Thames estuary, warm it and melt it, which you can see happening at the moment. To the west although the ppt may be a little lighter , it could well be cold enough to fall as snow. Obviously as the night goes on this good change and the added moisture from the estuary could be beneficial to the amount of ppt.
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1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:
Not in the SE; from the early 90's we had over 15 years of 'low or no snow' winters. I remember chatting with friends about it, remembering that we were quite spoilt in the 80's. The Midlands obviously did better in that period.
Mmm I think there were a number of snowy years from 1990 - 2005 in the south east, 1995 December ,snow all round pretty much, snow on Christmas day of 1996 and 1997 was absolutely momentus in January with loads of snow . It was so cold and snowy in my neck of the woods that the shops had to close early. There is also a really good photo of Canterbury Cathedral covered in snow from 1991. However South East is quite a big area.. for me Surrey is up North..
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Canterbury currently 4.0C rain rather than snow.
Dew point is 0.6 so , could get a a bit sleety soon, can see snow on radar just 1/2 mile or so further south
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Well after a soggy school run I went for a bike ride in the eye of this weather system which plonked itself over Canterbury for a couple of hours. Didn't rain once from 10.00 - 12.00 ,Sun even came out for a bit, until the centre shifed slightly south , at which point it started tipping down agan. Quite a bit of localised flooding on the roads, huge puddles etc..
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Well in Canterbury it is throwing it down with rain , dark as night , almost constant thunder and lightning for 15 minutes
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Good report on BBC news site about 100 Brits getting stuck in N .Spain , not aware of mountains and cold snap..
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In my view, at least this year has been better than last year for snow. It has at least snowed on more than 5 days already with 1 day of laying snow,.
O.k. not great but could be worse. Looks like south kent coast is getting a mini streamer now, with a smaller effort heading the way of Canterbury.
Still Winter not over yet and plenty more potentially snowy months to come.
Anyway on another note a lot of Brits 100 + have got stuck in snow in Spain after getting off the Santander ferry and trying to drive South , not realising N. Spain is having one of it's snowiest years on record. A good report on that on the BBC website on the most watched.
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the blob might be over us in thanet but there is nothing falling from the sky where I am in ramsgate
Ah well , tis doing the usual over Canterbury now, rain, hail and snow combo, you should get at least rain from the next blob which is shaped like a Scotty dog...
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Next snow blob over Planet Thanet , current rain upto the border ,turning to sleet as it approaches Canterbury, look potent, is now much colder here around 0 - 1 C so would expect it to hit home as snow in around 15 - 30 mins.
South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards
in Regional
Posted
Seems to be snowing on leading edge as the front approaches. but then rapidly to sleet as seen on radar,