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J10

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  1. J10
    [b]Background and Current Position[/b]

    This is the first Alps blog for the winter season 2014-15, so far this autumn/winter period it has been mixed for snow conditions. There has been some snow at times even down to some lower levels, however due to the milder weather recently much of this has thawed, although parts of Austria did see some fresh snow last week.

    [b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

    Currently the main driver for the Alps is low pressure to the South West of Italy, with East to North Easterly winds for the Alps, and 850HPa temps below freezing for the North and East and above freezing for the South and West.
    There is also a High Pressure system in the Atlantic, and low pressure centred over Iceland, brining a cooler air mass into NW Europe.

    [attachment=232096:Alps 6 Dec.png] [attachment=232097:Alps 6 Dec +24.png]

    Into next week, the initial low pressure will edge away to the South, with cooler winds from the North West edging in for Monday, Upper Temps still above freezing far south of Alps, but below freezing elsewhere and close to -5c for the German Alps.

    [attachment=232098:Alps 6 Dec +48.png]

    Colder weather from the above pattern pushes in for Tuesday, with 850HPa temps below -5c for much of the Alps, with North Easterly winds. With Low pressure to the South East of the Alps

    [attachment=232099:Alps 6 Dec +72.png]

    The winds are forecast to slowly veer in the Wednesday – Friday period, from initially North Westerly to Westerly on Thursday and then South westerly on Friday. This is due to High Pressure ridging up a little from the South and South West. The air mass is likely to be Returning Polar Maritime, 850HPa temps back closer to zero.
    [attachment=232100:Alps 6 Dec +96.png] [attachment=232101:Alps 6 Dec +120.png] [attachment=232102:Alps 6 Dec +144.png]

    [b]Alps Freezing Levels[/b]

    Sat – 800m-1000m North West, sharp gradient moving South East. 1400-1600m generally South East, and 1800-2000m locally South East Switzerland
    Sun – 800m-1000m North West, gradient moving South East. 1200-1400m generally South East, and 1600-1800m locally South East Switzerland
    Mon – 800m-1000m North 1200-1400m Central, and 1600-1800m locally South East Switzerland
    Tue – 600m-800m North and Central, 1000-1200m S Switzerland and N Italy
    Wed– 600m-800m E Austria, 1000-1400m Central Areas, 1600-1800m Far South West
    Thu– 1000m-1400m North and Central, 1400-1600m S Switzerland and N Italy
    Fri– Variable 1200-2200m

    [attachment=232141:Alps Temps 6 Dec.png] [attachment=232142:Alps Temps 6 Dec +48.png] [attachment=232143:Alps Temps 6 Dec +96.png] [attachment=232144:Alps Temps 6 Dec +144.png]

    [b]Precipitation[/b]
    [b]Weekend – [/b]Showery precipitation mostly, perhaps more persistent at times over Austria, snow levels 600m (NW) , and about 800-1000m elsewhere, higher to start in S Switzerland. Could be moderate snowfalls over parts of Austria over say 1000m

    [b]Early Next Week[/b] - In association with colder weather from North West, bands of precipitation will edge in from the north West. Areas over 1000m should see this fall mostly as snow, with snow levels closer to 600m at times, the heaviest off the snowfall for Germany, French Alps, Switzerland and W Austria.

    [b]Late Next Week[/b] - A bit drier, especially for Southern areas, although some precipitation at times for Northern parts of the Alps Snowfall above 1400, by day, closer to 800m by night.

    [b]Totals [/b]- Not massively impressive, wit up to an inch of precipitation possible next week.

    [attachment=232145:Rmgfs144sum 6 dec.gif]

    [b]Summary –[/b]

    Good Snow building Conditions seem likely for the early part of next week, and if the forecasts are correct good skiing conditions to fairly low levels towards the end of next week
  2. J10
    So this is the final full blog for Glastonbury 2015, ahead of the gates opening tomorrow.

    [b]Daily forecasts [/b]

    [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
    [attachment=253786:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 24.JPG]
    Mostly Fine and Dry with a small ridge of High Pressure over Southern parts of the UK. Sunny to start, a bit more cloudy in the afternoon. Temps low 20s,

    [b][size=3]Thursday 25 June[/size][/b]
    [attachment=253785:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 48.JPG]
    Very similar conditions to those of Wednesday a ridge over Southern UK, and Low pressure still away off in the Atlantic. A but warmer than Wednesday with temps low 20s but perhaps hitting 22/23c by mid afternoon, cloud amounts possibly a bit more than Wednesday.

    [size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
    [attachment=253782:GFS 23rd June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253784:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253798:ECM 23rd June 00Hz + 72.png]
    As has been suggested for a number of days turning a little more unsettled with some rain edging in during the morning and this continuing through the afternoon. However not likely to be that heavy, but enough to wet the ground. 2mm currently suggested. Sunshine is set to be very limited, with temps high teens/low 20s.

    [size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size]
    [attachment=253781:GFS 23rd June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253780:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253797:ECM 23rd June 00Hz + 96.png]
    Unsettled for Northern parts of the UK with Higher Pressure for the south of the UK, so a bit mixed with a risk of some showers at times, but with some sunny intervals likely as well. Temps 19c/20c again.

    [b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
    [attachment=253778:GFS 23rd June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253779:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253796:ECM 23rd June 00Hz + 120.png]
    A little more unsettled again, as some rain/showers spread in from the west, current indications show not that much rainfall however some ensembles make it that little bit wetter. Again with the chance of some sunshine at times, temps a bit cooler into the high teens.

    [b]Ground Conditions [/b]
    Currently not many problems at all, the rain on Friday and perhaps Sunday may dampen the ground a little, and some prone spots may see some mud, but no huge problems are currently expected.

    [b]Rainfall Totals [/b]
    [attachment=253806:Total Rainfall.gif]
    The latest GFS suggests a total of 4mm of rainfall for the festival. Although some ensembles are a bit higher, perhaps as much as 10mm but even that is not too bad.

    [b]Ensembles[/b]

    [b]Pressure [/b]
    [attachment=253794:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253804:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 12Hz.png]
    The pressure drops a little Friday and then again for Sunday and more especially into Next week.

    [b]Summary[/b]
    [b]Temps [/b]
    [attachment=253792:Ensemble Temp 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253805:Ensemble Temp 23 June 12Hz.png]
    The temps rise steadily until Friday and then drop back somewhat over the weekend.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]
    Some rain expected for Friday and perhaps a little over the weekend, more especially for Sunday, some runs showers some moderate/heavy rain into Monday
    [attachment=253793:Ensemble Rain 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253803:Ensemble Rain 23 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Hopefully it will be a great Glastonbury for all of you lucky people going. To answer the obvious question to anyone asking do I take my wellies, off course you do, but also takes your suncream to cover all eventualities.

    If I could be a little self indulgent If you have enjoyed these blogs, please click on the like button below.
  3. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    After some remarkable snowfalls over the Alps over the past month, it should be a quieter week weather wise, it should be mostly dry with plenty of sunshine. There will always be a NE/SW split, always colder in Austria ,and very cold to start, and always less cold the further SW you go, but bitterly cold overnight throughout. However with all sunshine it should be a great skiing week, however there may be an avalanche risk in some areas, so beware this.

    More Details as ever on the Ski Club of GB website.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url]

    And also in the Netweather SkiCentre
    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=

    It should turn slightly milder as the week progresses but a large degree of uncertainty as to the medium term outlook.

    [b]Synoptic Patterns and Progression[/b]

    As ever, my synoptic pattern is based on the GFS, this week there are some significant differences between this model and the others towards the end of the week. So there is greater uncertainty than normal for Friday etc.

    Currently we see low heights over the Northern Hemisphere, right from North America as far East as Svalbard, Low Pressure over Eastern Europe, with High Pressure over Russia, with the Azores High (1028mb) and a separate High Pressure over the UK (1028mb).

    The low pressure over Eastern Europe is feeding in cold or very cold air for all of Scandinavia and most of Eastern Europe as far west as the Alps (esp Austria). Milder over Western Europe but with winds from the continent, temps cool and settled over the UK.

    [attachment=127267:14 Jan Current.JPG]

    Little change by Sunday and Monday, however the pattern over Europe has pushed a bit further east, still very cold over much of Eastern Europe, but milder SW winds starting to push east over Western Scandinavia. Remaining mild over most of Western Europe, cool and settled over the UK with surface winds from the continent.
    [attachment=127261:14 Jan +24.JPG] [attachment=127262:14 Jan +48.JPG]

    By Tuesday, low pressure (with low heights) over much of the Northern Atlantic including Greenland and Svalbard. High Pressure now over most of Europe as the Azores High has merged with the High over the UK, This will start feeding in milder SW winds over the UK and Western Scandinavia. Remaining cold over much of Eastern Europe.

    [attachment=127263:14 Jan +72.JPG]

    The Azores High pushes further NE by Wednesday and still feeding in mild SW winds over the UK and much of Western Europe. Still the Russian High keeping it very cold here, in between pressure around 1020mb, remaining cold over Eastern Europe, but slightly milder further west, now including the Alps. Upstream some cold air starting to be pushed down into the Mid Atlantic.

    [attachment=127264:14 Jan +96.JPG]

    By Thursday, High Pressure again for the Southern Atlantic, it should turn a bit milder over Central Europe, as the previous mild air over Western Europe gets pushed a bit further east, but remaining cold over much of Eastern Europe. starting to turn cooler over the UK with a brief NW flow, and turning colder as well with low pressure bringing westerly winds over Scandinavia
    [attachment=127265:14 Jan +120.JPG]

    By Friday, there should be High Pressure to the south of the UK. GFS gives a mild flat pattern with mild air, for NW Europe including the UK and Southern Scandinavia. Cool over much of Central Europe, remaining cold over NE Europe It should also stay mild over the UK for the weekend under this pattern.

    [attachment=127266:14 Jan +144.JPG]

    ECM and most of the other models to an extent go for more of a NW flow, with a ridge over the Atlantic, up to Greenland, giving cool or cold winds over the UK, and turning it cold and unsettled over the UK for the weekend, however it should be a mild start for much of Europe on the Friday, but turning much colder over the weekend.

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 14 Jan - [/b]600m to 800m (generally), 1200m to 1600m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
    [b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0 to 400m (E Austria), 600m to 1000m (Generally), 1000m to 1600m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
    [b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0 to 400m (E Austria), 600m to 1000m (Generally), 1200m to 1400m (West)
    [b]Tue 17 Jan - [/b]600m to 1000m (Generally), 1000m-1600m (South and West)
    [b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]400 to 800m (E Austria), 1000m to 1600m (Generally), 1800m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
    [b]Thur 19 Jan - [/b]1200m to 1600m (East), 1800m to 2200m (West)
    [b]Fri 20 Jan -[/b] 600m to 1000m (North and East), 1200m to 1600m (Generally), 1800m to 2200m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
    [b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
    [b]Tue 17 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
    [b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally), pockets higher
    [b]Thur 19 Jan -[/b] 0m to 400m (Austria), around 600m generally, pockets higher
    [b]Fri 20 Jan[/b] - 0m to 400m (North), around 600m generally, pockets higher

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 14 Jan - [/b]0 to +2 in South West, -1 to -5c Central, -7 to -8c in North and East,
    [b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in South West, -2 to -6c Central -7 to -11c in North and East
    [b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in South West, -2 to -6c Central, -6 to -8c in East
    [b]Tue 17 Jan -[/b] 0 to -2 West, -2 to -6c in East
    [b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]0 to +2 West, -1 to -3c in East
    [b]Thur 19 Jan -[/b] 0 to +4c Generally
    [b]Fri 20 Jan[/b] - 0 to +3c in South West, -4 to -6c in North East

    [b]Sat 14 / Sun 15 Jan[/b]
    Mostly dry and settled over the Alps but moderate snowfall over Central Austria during Saturday morning and afternoon. Sunday looks mostly dry apart from light snowfall over Central Austria again, very cold generally over Austria
    [attachment=127292:14 Jan +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon 16 Jan[/b]
    Dry and settled with plenty of sunshine, very cold again for Austria.
    [attachment=127291:14 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue 17 Jan[/b]
    Mostly Dry and settled again, with plenty of sunshine, however patchy snow at times for Eastern Austria.
    [attachment=127290:14 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed 18 Jan[/b]
    Dry and settled with plenty of sunshine, not quite as cold generally.
    [attachment=127289:14 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thurs 19 Jan[/b]
    Dry to start, perhaps more general precipitation edging in from the north during the day, with heavy bursts for much of Switzerland, Germany and Austria. Low confidence in this.
    [attachment=127288:14 Jan +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Fri 20 Jan[/b]
    Any overnight precipitation should fade away during the day, leaving another mostly dry day.
    [attachment=127287:14 Jan +144 Alps.JPG]

    View the latest snow forecasts and reports for resorts across the world here:
    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=
  4. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    The Alps has joined the UK in enjoying warm sunshine this week, with suntan lotion a must however this has meant that snow levels have dropped this week, by around 30cm, however at least temps have been cold overnight to refreeze the lying snow.

    Best conditions can be seen on north facing slopes and the higher up you go the better the conditions. Elsewhere conditions are turning progressively slushy into the afternoon as the powerful sun melts the snow.

    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url]

    A bit of a change next week as things are set to turn a fair bit more unsettled towards just before the Easter weekend, with the chance of some decent snowfalls over higher ground.

    [b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    The High Pressure from last week, has retrogressed North Westwards, and a cold norherly wind is pushing cold air into the low countries, staying quite mild though for much of the Alps
    [attachment=132643:31 March.JPG]

    The initial blast is pushes away into Eastern Europe, but it does turn a bit colder for Austria for a time, but staying quite mild over western parts of the Alps
    [attachment=132642:31 March +48.JPG]

    High Pressure to the North West of the UK is set to bring very cold easterly winds over the UK, and northern parts of Germany, furtherr south over the Alps, a bit milder but turning more unsettled with low pressure.

    [attachment=132641:31 March +96.JPG]

    The pattern edges a bit further south, so turning colder over the northern half of the Alps, and turning very unsettled with the chance of quite high precipitation totals, with snow over higher slopes.

    [attachment=132640:31 March +144.JPG]

    A lot of uncertainty at the moment for next weekend,

    [b]Alps Detail [/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 1 Apr - [/b]1400-1800m NE Austria, 2200m-2400m E Austria, 2800-3200m Southern and Western Alps
    [b]Sun [/b][b]2 Apr[/b][b] - [/b]900-1500m Austria/E Italy/Germany,1500m-2100m Switzerland, 2600m -3000m Western Alps
    [b]Mon [/b][b]3 Apr[/b][b] - [/b]2000-2500m generally, lower in parts of E Italy and E Austria (1500-1800m)
    [b]Tue [/b][b]4 Apr[/b][b]-[/b] 2200-2500m generally, lower in parts of Italy (2000-2100m)
    [b]Wed [/b][b]5[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] - [/b]2200-2400m generally, 1500m to 1800m France, N Switzerland and W Germany
    [b]Fri [/b][b]6[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] -[/b] 800m to 1200m North, 1400m to 2200m elsewhere
    [b]Fri [/b][b]7[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] -[/b] 800m to 1600m North, 2000m to 2200m elsewhere

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 1 Apr - [/b]+1 to +4c North, +6 to +10c elsewhere, +10 to +12c parts of W Italy
    [b]Sun [/b][b]2 Apr[/b][b] - [/b]-5c to +0c Germany and E Austria, 0c to +4c N Switzerland and W Austria, +4 to +9c S Switzerland, France and Italy
    [b]Mon [/b][b]3 Apr[/b][b] - [/b]+2 to +5c generally, +6 to to +8 E Switzerland and W Austria
    [b]Tue [/b][b]4 Apr[/b][b]-[/b] +6 to +10c generally, +3c to +4c parts of Italy
    [b]Wed [/b][b]5[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] - [/b]+5 to +9c generally, +1c to +4c France, N Switzerland and W Germany
    [b]Fri [/b][b]6[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] -[/b] -5c to -1c North, +4 to +7c South
    [b]Fri [/b][b]7[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] -[/b] +2 to +5c generally

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]

    [b]Sun [/b][b]2 Apr[/b][b] - [/b]300-600m Austria/E Italy/Germany, 900m-1500m Switzerland, 1500m -2700m Western Alps
    [b]Mon [/b][b]3 Apr[/b][b] - [/b]1000-1200m generally, 1800m-2000m parts of Western Alps
    [b]Tue [/b][b]4 Apr[/b][b]-[/b] 2000-2200m generally, lower in parts of Italy/SE Switzerland and SW Austria (1500-1800m)
    [b]Wed [/b][b]5[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] - [/b]2200-2100m generally, 1500m to 1800m France, N Switzerland and W Germany
    [b]Fri [/b][b]6[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] -[/b] under 1000m North, 1000-1600m Central 1800m to 2200m South
    [b]Fri [/b][b]7[/b][b] Apr[/b][b] -[/b] under 1000m North, 1200-2200m Elsewhere

    [b]Alps Daily Summaries[/b]

    [b]Sat 31 Mar [/b]- Dry to start, precipitation edging SE into Austria late evening and overnight, moderate bursts possible especially in Tirol [SL dropping from 1500m to 1000m - [5cm snow in places] [attachment=132648:31 March Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sun 1 Apr - [/b]After any overnight precipitation fades away in Western Austria, it should be dry and mostly sunny, with a thaw especially in western areas .

    [b]Mon [/b][b]2 Apr [/b][b] - [/b]A mostly fine day with good sunny spells in most spots, with a further thaw of lying snow, a few light showers in the west for a time in the afternoon, [attachment=132647:31 March +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue [/b][b]3 Apr [/b][b] -[/b] A dry start to the day with some sunshine, but some showers will develop in to the afternoon and evening, some heavy and possibly prolonged, snow level around 1800m, giving some localised moderate snowfalls, [attachment=132646:31 March +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed [/b][b]4 Apr [/b][b]- [/b]Heavy showers to start in the west, with the chance of more prolonged precipitation in France in the morning, showers becoming more widespread further east later with the chance of prolonged precipitation in E Switzerland, parts of Austria [SL around 1200m - west, 1800m in Austria]. Further precipitation possible in Switzerland and Austria, through the evening and overnight [attachment=132645:31 March +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thu [/b][b]5 Mar - [/b]Further heavy precipitation to start the day in parts of Switzerland, N Italy and W Austria, [SL 1200m north- 1600m south, this continuing through the day, and showers possible anywhere across the Alps during the day.

    [b]Fri [/b][b]6 Mar[/b] - Another day of heavy showers across the Alps, some prolonged and heavy again, the snow level much lower the further north you go [attachment=132644:31 March +144 Alps.JPG]
  5. J10
    [b]Introduction [/b]

    It remains a very disappointing start to Winter for the Alps, with very little snow for the lower slopes, However the cold overnight temperatures have meant that snow cannons have been in operation, and a large number of resorts have been able to open. However the lack of snow has meant that the opening Ski races schedule for Val D'Isere have had to be moved to Beaver Creek in North America.

    More details on snow amounts and general conditions available on at the Ski Club of Great Britain website. [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ew/default.aspx[/url]

    Looking at the current synoptic chart, there is High Pressure (1036mb) covering the South of the Atlantic. There is low pressure over the Greenland through to Scandinavia area, with a number of separate centres. However this is generally feeding in cold or very cold Polar Maritime air for much of this region. The UK and NW mainland Europe is in between the High Pressure to the SW and the low Pressure to the NW, with a ridge of High pressure to start, before rain pushes in from the NW later in the day. The rest of Europe (including Eastern Scandinavia) mostly mild with SW winds, but remaining cold in Russia.

    [attachment=124063:Current 2nd Dec 850Hpa.png]

    [b]Synoptic Progression[/b]

    The previous blogs this winter have gone with full detail for 7 days, however accuracy of the charts after 5 days has not been that great, as a result, I'll give the general pattern only.

    Saturday sees the whole pattern move further east, Low Pressure now for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Western Europe including the UK and now the Alps. High Pressure remains for the Southern Atlantic, and SE Europe remains under High Pressure.

    Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning cooler over the UK, remaining quite mild for the Alps, the low countries and Northern France with SW winds, still cool for Scandinavia as we have a returning Polar Maritime airflow despite the SW wind direction.

    [attachment=124048:2 Dec +24.JPG]

    Sunday sees a very similar pattern, but the colder air has edged slightly further SE. A Surface High pressure has formed over Greenland above a potent Polar Vortex, feeding bitterly cold winds down from the Arctic. Low Pressure now for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Central Europe including the UK and now the Alps. High Pressure remains for the Southern Atlantic, SE Europe now has pressure around 1016-1020mb.

    Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning colder over the UK with a NW Polar Maritime airflow, with very cold air for Northern parts, cold for Southern parts of the UK, much of Northern Mainland Europe and Scandinavia. Still though rather mild for much of France, the Alps and most of Southern Europe. .

    [attachment=124050:2 Dec +48.JPG]

    Monday sees a very similar pattern, but the colder air has again edged slightly further SE. A Surface High pressure remains over Greenland (1024mb) above a potent Polar Vortex. A massive area of Low Pressure (centred west of Norway 960mb) now covers most of Europe, with very cold winds on the western side, slightly milder SW winds on its Eastern Side. for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Central Europe, High Pressure now restricted to the far SE of Europe.

    Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning colder over the UK with a NW Polar Maritime airflow, very cold air (sub -5c 850Hpa) covers the whole of the UK and parts of the low countries. Most of Northern Europe seeing cold air (sob zero 850Hpa) including progressively the Alps more detail on the snow potential to follow below), cold or very cold for the Scandinavia, with the mild air now restricted to the far south of Europe.

    [attachment=124052:2 Dec +72.JPG]

    Tuesday again sees the general pattern, low pressure for most of Europe. bringing cold or very cold air from the North West. The very cold airflow cutoff for most apart from Scandinavia, but remaining cold from most of Northern and Western parts of Europe, if anything turning colder in NE areas, as the initial cold now pushes in here.

    [attachment=124054:2 Dec +96.JPG]

    Wednesday and Thursday sees the wind direction turn round to more of westerly direction as opposed to North Westerly direction, so turning milder for the UK and much of Mainland Europe. however signs of a further blast of colder air pushing back down across the UK initially and then for most of NW Europe for Friday, so a further chance of wintry weather. Staying very cold in Scandinavia throughout, and mild over much of southern Europe.

    [attachment=124058:2 Dec +120.JPG]
    [attachment=124060:2 Dec +144.JPG]
    [attachment=124062:2 Dec +168.JPG]

    The outlook sees the potential for High pressure to build from the South West, and perhaps move back into Euro High Territory.

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]850Hpa Summary (Noon) ,Regional Detail
    Sat 3rd Dec +1 to +4 Generally
    Sun 4th Dec +2 to +7 +2/+3 Italy, +4 to +7c Generally
    Mon 5th Dec -3 to +6 -3 (North) up steadily to +6 in Italy
    Tues 6th Dec -5 to +2 -5 (Austria) up steadily to +2 in Italy
    Wed 7th Dec -5 to +4 -5 (Austria) to to +4 in Italy, generally milder though then recent days
    Thurs 8th Dec -2 to +5 Generally +1 to +4
    Fri 9th Dec -5 to +6 0 to -5 (N Alps), 0 to 3 S Austria and S Switzerland[/CODE][/font][/size]


    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]0c Isotherm Summary (6am) , Regional Detail
    Sat 3rd Dec 1400m-2200m 1400m-1600m Generally
    Sun 4th Dec 1400m-2800m 1400-2200m SE Switzerland, SW Austria, Higher elsewhere
    Mon 5th Dec 1200m-2800m 1200m (NW), 1600-1800m generally Austria/ Switzerland
    Tues 6th Dec 600m-1000m Generally, but 1000-1600m Italy
    Wed 7th Dec 200m-1400m 1000-1400 (W and W Austria), lower Eastern Austria
    Thurs 8th Dec 300m-2400m Local Variations
    Fri 9th Dec 900m-1800m Generally[/CODE][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]0c Isotherm Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
    Sat 3rd Dec 1800m-2200m Generally
    Sun 4th Dec 1900m-2400m 2200-2400m Generally
    Mon 5th Dec 1000m-2200m 1000m (NW), 1400-1600m generally Austria/ Switzerland
    Tues 6th Dec 800m-1400m 800m (N and W), 1400m Southern Austria and S Switzerland,Italy
    Wed 7th Dec 800m-2000m 800m (NE Austria), 1000-1600m Switzerland and much of Austria
    Thurs 8th Dec 1600m-3000m 1600m (NE Austria), 3000m SE Italy
    Fri 9th Dec 800m-2600m 800m (N and W), 800-1400m Southern Austria and S Switzerland, [/CODE][/font][/size]

    [b]Saturday 3 December [/b]- Quite a lot of precipitation to start Saturday morning, especially for Eastern Switzerland and Western Austria and Central Italy. Snow level around 1400m. This tending to move away to SE Austria later in the day , before a more general frontal band of heavy precipitation moves into the NW alps by late evening. This continuing during the early hours, with the potential for moderate snowfalls for NW Switzerland, the Portes Du Soleil, and into Southern Germany above around 1900m, potentially 10 inches of snow in the Northern Portes du Soleil.

    [attachment=124047:2 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sunday 4 December [/b]- The precipitation only slowly dying out during the day especially for much of the French Alps, Switzerland, the German alps, and Northern Austria. The snow level generally around 2200m without much regional variation, remaining dry over the south of the Alps. Into the evening and a cold front edges in from the north. Further heavy precipitation possible for the Portes du Soleil, Switzerland, the German Alps, and Northern Austria. Snow Level around 2000-2100m.

    [attachment=124049:2 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Monday 5 December [/b]- The precipitation continuing Monday morning and turning very heavy through through the Portes Du Soleil, a swathe of Switzerland including Wengen and Zermatt, and into Southern Germany and the far NW of Austria. Snow levels dropping as a cold front brings in colder Polar Maritime air, from 1800m on the front edge (to the SE) to around 1200m on the back edge. A wider area covering the France Alps, all of Switzerland the German Alps, and most of Austria, excluding the SE, will see some moderate precipitation.

    During the afternoon the precipitation will become patchier but remain in the wider area described above, Snow Level, 800 (N) - 1800m (SE), During the late evening, patchy snow will fall to resort level for Switzerland.

    [attachment=124067:2 Dec for Mon am.JPG]
    [attachment=124051:2 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tuesday 6 December [/b]- The morning will see patchy snow for Germany and Northern Austria, mostly dry elsewhere, By evening, further Precipitation edging in from the west, snow down to around 1000m, moderate precipitation for the French Alps, Switzerland and the German Alps, mostly dry for Italy and Austria.
    [attachment=124053:2 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday 7 December [/b]- The precipitation continuing into Wednesday, and moving by morning to be centred over Switzerland and Austria, and largely dying out in Switzerland during the day with some heavy precipitation in western Austria during the day, snow level around 1200m.
    [attachment=124057:2 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]

    Thursday looks mostly dry at this stage, While Friday looks as if more snow may push down from the north associated with the colder plunge, but no point going into detail this far out.
    [attachment=124059:2 Dec +144 Alps.JPG][attachment=124061:2 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Summary [/b]

    For the first time in months, there looks to be a probability of moderate snowfalls down to lower slope or resort levels. By the middle of next week, 25cm of snow seems very possible widely for parts of France, and Northern parts of Switzerland across to Germany, with up to 50cm in places.

    There is also the chance of further snow towards the end of next week, however there is the possibility of a Euro High returning after this.
  6. J10
    [b]Background and Current Position[/b]

    There have been a number of articles about the lack of snow in the Alps. As move in the middle of December, this is the time of year when many resorts open however the lack of snow at some resorts has meant this being delayed. What has helped though is some snowfall to low levels and some cold weather allowing those all important snow cannons to operate.

    So in summary conditions are worse than normal, but we have seen worse years.

    [b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

    So on this basis, we would like to see the better conditions of recent day set to continue.

    Looking at today's weather pattern, there is low pressure over Iceland, with cold North westerly winds over North western Europe. The Azores High covers the Southern Atlantic, there is also a small low pressure system over Portugal and this is feeding up mild South Westerly winds over the Alps, with 850HPa temps around 5c for Northern Alps, cooler further south.

    [attachment=233152:Alps 13 Dec.png] [attachment=233153:Alps 13 Dec +24.png]

    By the start of next week, the flow from Portugal gets cut off and the mild air gets mixed out a bit, and with no dominant weather pattern and a weak westerly veering North Westerly flow, 850Hpa temps gradually drop closer to zero.

    [attachment=233154:Alps 13 Dec +48.png] [attachment=233155:Alps 13 Dec +72.png]

    By the mid part of next week, the Azores High slowly start edging east and on its northern flank, it brings some mild Tropical Maritime air mass for NW Europe and The Alps, so upper temps rising up back above 5c at 850HPa. This is associated with a warm front, so some moderate precipitation seems likely.

    [attachment=233156:Alps 13 Dec +96.png] [attachment=233157:Alps 13 Dec +120.png] [attachment=233158:Alps 13 Dec +144.png]
    [b]Alps Freezing Levels[/b]

    Sat – 1600m-2000m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria and Northern Italy, 2200m-2400m elsewhere.
    Sun – 1800m-2000m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria and Northern Italy, 2000m-2200m elsewhere.
    Mon – 1800m-2000m France, Switerlnad and SW Germany, 2000m-2200m Austria, SE Germany, Italy
    Tue – 1000m-1600m S Germany, French Alps, N Switzerland, N Austria. 1600-2000m elsewhere
    Wed– 1600m-2000m E Austria, 1800-2400m elsewhere, rising as you go further west
    Thu– 2200-2600m Central Alps, 2600-3000m Far Southern Switzerland and Italy
    Fri– 2600m S Germany and N Austria rising steadily moving south to 3200m over Northern Italy

    Some cold nights to start the week mean ample opportunity for the use of snow cannons.

    [attachment=233159:Alps Temps 13 Dec.png] [attachment=233161:Alps Temps Snow 13 Dec +48.png] [attachment=233162:Alps Temps Snow 13 Dec +72.png] [attachment=233163:Alps Temps Snow 13 Dec +96.png] [attachment=233164:Alps Temps Snow 13 Dec +120.png] [attachment=233160:Alps Temps 13 Dec +120.png]

    [b]Precipitation[/b]

    Mostly dry this weekend, but some patchy precipitation fringing the NW of the Alps Saturday evening into Sunday with snow above 1600m or so.

    This is set to become a little more organized Sunday into Monday for Northern and Western parts of the Alps Sunday into Monday, with snow above 1600m or so.

    This moving into more Central areas overnight and into Tuesday and becoming concentrated in Austria later on Tuesday with snow above 1200m (N) -1600m (S) or so.

    On Wednesday, a frontal system is set to move in the North west, bringing some heavy persistent precipitation this is set to last through Wednesday and for much of Thursday. the heaviest precipitation likely for Northern Switzerland and NW Austria a lesser extent for S Germany, France and other parts of Switzerland and to a lesser extent for S Switzerland. Snow level around 2200-2400m .

    The GFS goes for some heavy precipitation this week for the Northern half of the Alps, most of this is forecast from Wednesday to Friday, with over 2 inches of precipitation expected.

    [attachment=233165:Rmgfs144sum.gif]

    As can be seen by the precipitation up to Wednesday. which is much drier.

    [attachment=233166:Rmgfs96sum.gif]

    [b]Summary [/b]

    Mostly Mild this week, and with moderate precipitation at time, however most of the snow reserved for higher resorts. However the heavy precipitation event expected for midweek needs further monitoring, as with a lower freezing level this would transform the Alps leading into Christmas.
  7. J10
    This is the first in a series of blogs looking at the Snow and Skiing conditions for the Alps for winter 2011-12.

    A cursory look at the webcams across the Alps will show that snow levels are currently on recent at this early stage, and that temps over the Alps have been milder than normal so far in November.

    As an example the following table shows maximum temps for Zermatt (1600m - Switzerland) and Salzburg (450m - Austria), this only gives a snapshot, but it can be seen that Temps are milder in 2011 than in both 2010 and 2009, and it is unusual that there has been a cold snap recently.

    [attachment=123366:Winter Temps.JPG] <- Table with temps of Zermatt and Salzburg.

    Synoptically can this be explained, firstly if we were to look at this years patterns, this gives the 850Hpa temps across Europe and the wind direction.

    [attachment=123368:GFS 01 Nov.png] [attachment=123369:GFS 02 Nov.png][attachment=123370:GFS 03 Nov.png] [attachment=123371:GFS 04 Nov.png] [attachment=123372:GFS 05 Nov.png] [attachment=123373:GFS 06 Nov.png]
    [attachment=123374:GFS 07 Nov.png] [attachment=123375:GFS 08 Nov.png] [attachment=123376:GFS 09 Nov.png]
    [attachment=123377:GFS 10 Nov.png] [attachment=123378:GFS 11 Nov.png] [attachment=123379:GFS 12 Nov.png]


    At no time is there a wind from any northerly direction for the Alps, and for the majority of the period, 850HPA temps are above +5c, the only exception being for Eastern Austria after the 10th.

    In Summary, At the start of November, there was a High Pressure over Eastern Europe with low pressure further west, and the Alps in the middle seeing mild Tropical Maritime air with South Westerly winds. By around the 5th-7th, low pressure took over for much of Continental Europe, but with winds remaining from a SW direction bringing 850Hpa temps around +10c for a while. By around the 10th, High Pressure edging back into Eastern Europe with winds edging back to a SE direction, with less mild winds trying to edge in from the South East.

    If you look at previous years, there has been some colder air at different times across early November.

    2010 started mild with a Bartlett style High.
    [attachment=123380:Nov 4 2010 850Hpa.gif] [attachment=123381:Nov 4 2010.gif]

    However winds then turned around to a Northerly direction on the 6th, this gave Polar Maritime air which lasted for a few days, giving a general cool down across the Alps.
    [attachment=123382:Nov 7 2010.gif] [attachment=123383:Nov 8 2010 850Hpa.gif] [attachment=123384:Nov 10 2010 850Hpa.gif] [attachment=123385:Nov 10 2010.gif]

    [attachment=123386:Matterhorn Nov 2010.jpg] [attachment=123387:Matterhorn Nov 2011.jpg] This gave a topup of snow for November 2010 as opposed to the less snowy picture for 2011, however much of the snow seen on the slope above Zermatt was delivered during the 4th-8th November.

    2009 saw more of a pronounced change around over the Alps. again it started mild with a High pressure to the east bringing in southerly winds. However by the 3rd winds had changed round to a NW flow, with associated polar maritime air. It stayed quite cool for a few days, before low pressure brought NE winds and sub zero 850Hpa air.

    [attachment=123395:Nov 1 2009 850 Hpa.gif] [attachment=123388:Nov 3 2009.gif]
    [attachment=123389:Nov 6 2009 b.gif] [attachment=123394:Nov 6 2009 850 Hpa.gif]
    [attachment=123390:Nov 9 2009.gif] [attachment=123393:Nov 9 2009 850 Hpa.gif]
    [attachment=123391:Nov 12 2009.gif] [attachment=123392:Nov 12 2009 850Hpa.gif]

    Even though the Alps do not require perfect weather conditions to bring cold weather and snow, indeed 0c at 850HPA will bring snow to most resorts over the Alps. It is just as vulnerable to Bartlett High and Southerly winds as the UK.

    A look ahead for the rest of November prospects will follow over the next few days, and I will also post a few more webcams to show the difference between this year and previous ones on the ongoing discussion thread here. - > [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71533-alps-snow-and-weather-conditions-2011-2012"]http://forum.netweat...tions-2011-2012[/url]
  8. J10
    The first midweek update concentrating on the shorter term models,

    This forecast will contain information from 2 sources.

    [b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]

    [b]6-10 day [/b]
    [attachment=252588:610day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252606:610day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252589:610day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252590:610day.03 from 10 June.gif]
    A definite trend for Pressure to build over the UK and especially towards the south west keeping conditions rather settled as time goes on, this improves the chances of dry weather in the run up towards Glastonbury festival.

    [b]8-14 day[/b]
    [attachment=252592:814day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252605:814day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252593:814day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252594:814day.03 from 10 June.gif]

    This again keep pressure higher than average just before the Glastonbury festival but perhaps but not quite as much the 6-10 day chart.

    All in all these charts are rather positive for dry weather. For sunnier weather you would would to see the High positioned more to the east.

    [b]2. GFS Ensemble Charts [/b]

    From 7 June

    [attachment=252601:Ensemble Pressure 7 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252602:Ensemble Rain 7 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252603:Ensemble Temp 7 JUne 12Hz.png]

    These charts are rather messy, pressure averaging 1020mb before Glastonbury with a high degree of variation but dropping a little in the run up to Glastonbury. Rainfall variable with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

    From 9 June

    [attachment=252598:Ensemble Pressure 9 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252599:Ensemble Rain 9 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252600:Ensemble Temp 9 June 12Hz.png]

    Pressure around 1020mb-1030mb to the 21st June before dropping back to around 1015mb on average by the end of run, rainfall looking low in the run up to Glastonbury, but turning a little wetter a few days before Glastonbury with a few ensembles spikes of high rainfall with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

    From 10 June

    [attachment=252595:Ensemble Pressure 10 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252596:Ensemble Rain 10 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252597:Ensemble Temp 10 June 12Hz.png]

    Pressure around 1020mb-1025mb from the 15th June to the 25th and only then dropping slightly below 1020mb, very little variation in the ensembles members either. Rainfall looking very low in the run up to Glastonbury, but a few runs a little wetter a few days before Glastonbury but drier generally than the 9th June with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

    [b]Summary [/b]

    The NOAA charts are very promising in the run up to Glastonbury for settled weather. The Ensembles go for a settled period the week before Glastonbury, but will it last for the festival, the 7th/9th June runs suggest no, but today's suggest they might.

    A long way off still, but the more patterns are starting to emerge time will tell if they are the right ones. However not the worst charts ever seen in the run up to Glastonbury.
  9. J10
    This is the 3rd blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the chase continues.

    This weeks forecast is a mix of the long term term models used previously (mainly CFS) and shorter term models as we move as these can now start to predict the run up to the festival period.

    This weeks forecast methods

    1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
    2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
    3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com] - This is the last forecast to use this model
    4. Prognostic Charts at 500mb from NOAA

    [b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b]

    [b]June[/b]

    [attachment=252232:June 15 Pressure 7 June.png] [attachment=252233:June 15 Rainfall 7 June.png] [attachment=252234:June 15 Temps 7 June.png]

    The Pressure charts show Higher pressure areas both to the west and east of the UK, with pressure only slightly higher than average over the UK itself. Temperatures are now generally around average, and slightly above average in Northern parts of the UK with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas.

    In Summary pretty neutral to say the least.

    [b][b]July [/b][/b]
    [attachment=252229:July 15 Pressure 7 June.png] [attachment=252230:July 15 Rainfall 7 June.png] [attachment=252231:July 15 Temps 7 June.png]
    The pressure charts show Higher pressure areas to the North west of the UK and also slightly above average over the UK itself.

    Temps above average generally, slightly in Southern and Eastern areas, well above average for Northern areas. Rainfall below average generally, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall around average rainfall.

    [b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June 31/05/2015 HP over UK first moving North, and then rebuilding over all parts Turning Unsettled from west with LP on top of UK for Glasto weekend 01/06/2015 HP over the UK, LP trying to edge from SE at times HP in Control over the UK esp. West parts 02/06/2015 Westerly winds with quite low pressure. HP to Azores Weak LP for festival period 03/06/2015 LP over UK to start pressure building slowly LP pressure for a time Thursday, then Pressure building over weekend 04/06/2015 HP builds up from SW HP to SW flattened out over time 05/06/2015 Unsettled to start, HP slowly building from South LP moves from west to east, HP building for late weekend 06/06/2015 HP over W to start builds initially before LP edges in from south Deep LP to start, slowly weakens over weekend [/code][code=auto:0] Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 31/05/2015 Cool and unsettled SE to NW Yellow / Light Orange Showery to start, perhaps more general rain Saturday 5.0 01/06/2015 Dry warmish and settled NE to N Light Orange / Orange Mostly Dry , perhaps odd showers Wednesday 9.0 02/06/2015 Cool Unsettled and Wet W to NW Dark Green light yellow Damp/wet most days 4.0 03/06/2015 Dry warm and settled East Orange / Deep Orange Mostly dry , poss. shower Friday 8.0 04/06/2015 Cool Unsettled and Damp NW to W Light Orange / Orange Showery Precipitation at times 6.0 05/06/2015 Mild, wet and unsettled SW to NW Yellow / Orange Periods of rain most days, some heavy 4.0 06/06/2015 Cool to Warm, Damp and Unsettled W to SW Yellow to Deep Orange Periods of rain most day, some moderate 5.0 [/code]
    The runs this week are not as promising as last week with the average down from 7.4 to 5.9 out of 10.

    [b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 30 May Yellow -1/-0 +0/+1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -1/+1 (Gen) -2(N)/+1(S) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c (S) /+2c(NW) Light Blue/White Generally 31 May Yellow +3/+4 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Light Blue JULY +2(S)/-2(N) +1(S)/-2(N) -1c(NW)/+1c(E) +0c(SE) /+2c(NW) Blue Gen, white Midlands 1 June Yellow +1 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +2c/+3c Blue JULY +4(N)/+1(S) -0(SE)/+2(NW) -0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +1c(S) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 2 June Yellow -3 -1/-0 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -4(SW)/-2(SE) -1/-0 -1c(S)/+0c(N) -0c(Mid)/+4c(NW) White S areas, Red Midlands 3 June Yellow -2/-1 -2/-1 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -2(SW)/+0(NE) -1(W/-0(E) -0c(SW)/+0c(NE) -0c(SE) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 4 June Yellow -2/-1 -2/-1 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -2(SW)/+0(NE) -1(W/-0(E) -0c(SW)/+0c(NE) -0c(SE) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 5 June Yellow +2/+3 -1/-0 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Red JULY +2(SW)/+5(NE) -0(SW)/+2(NE) +0c(SW)/+2(NE) +1c(SE) /+4c (N) White/Light blue SW, Red Midlands 6 June Yellow -8/-7 -5/-4 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Deep Red JULY -8(SW)/-2 (N) -4(Cen)/-2(S/N) -2c(S)/+1c(N) -1c(SE) /+4c (N) Deep Red All southern areas[/code]
    No runs for June this week, for July the outcomes very varied and similar to last week in terms of averages. .

    [b]4. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
    link for those interested [url="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php"]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php[/url]

    [b]6-10 days[/b]
    Shows high pressure initially for this week, but turning slightly unsettled as we move into the forecast for 12-16 June i.e. into next week
    [attachment=252235:610day.03 from 1 June.gif] [attachment=252236:610day.03 from 2 June.gif] [attachment=252237:610day.03 from 3 June.gif] [attachment=252238:610day.03 from 4 June.gif] [attachment=252239:610day.03 from 5 June.gif] [attachment=252240:610day.03 from 6 June.gif]

    [b]8-14 days[/b]
    Shows High pressure briefly but quickly turns things unsettled, however perhaps the pressure becoming neutral, by the end of the forecast period 14-20 June.
    [attachment=252241:814day.03 from 1 June.gif][attachment=252242:814day.03 from 2 June.gif] [attachment=252243:814day.03 from 3 June.gif] [attachment=252244:814day.03 from 4 June.gif] [attachment=252245:814day.03 from 5 June.gif] [attachment=252246:814day.03 from 6 June.gif]

    In summary of above, turning a little unsettled after this week, however perhaps things settling down once more as we move into the run-up to the festival.

    [b]Summary[/b]
    The long term models not so good this week, but looking at the medium term models, unsettled next week, and perhaps a slight sign of things improving just before the festival starts.
  10. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Introduction [/b][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial]It is always strange at this time of year, on the one hand it seems another long winter on the other hand it has flown by.
    From the outside, it seems there was a fairer distribution of snow this year than other years. Quite a lot of snow has fallen from late December onwards, but there have been notable mild weather at times, which has left some lower slopes in particular with snow shortages at times.
    The other notable feature seems the number of unsettled weekends and in particular on Saturdays.[/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Synoptics[/b]
    So on with the forecast in my last blog I mentioned the chance of a late winter hurrah for the Easter Weekend.

    If we compare the models s from last week to what is suggested now. It is noticeable that the cold was watered down and was further East than forecast. This is a common theme from Northerlies in recent years!!
    [attachment=248231:Alps 27 Mar + 168.JPG] [attachment=248230:Alps 3 Apr.JPG]

    So the pattern is for High Pressure to the west of the UK, with low pressure over Eastern Europe , with the Alps in between these patterns.
    [attachment=248233:Alps 3 Apr +24.JPG]
    However over the weekend, there is a tendency for High Pressure to build over the UK and for Low Pressure to develop to the South East of the Alps, with a cold Easterly flow setting in.
    [attachment=248232:Alps 3 Apr +48.JPG]
    This pattern continues into next week with a cold Easterly flow continuing over the Alps.
    [attachment=248239:Alps 3 Apr + 72.JPG]
    By midweek, the pressure over NW Europe continues to rise, and the colder air abates and the winds switch round to more of a East/South East direction turning things less cold.
    [attachment=248238:Alps 3 Apr + 120.JPG][/font][/size] [attachment=248249:Alps 3 Apr + 168 (Pattern).JPG]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Temperatures[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Coldest towards the North East and noticeable that even the cold temps at 850Hpa do not relate to that cold temperatures on the surface.
    Sat – 1000m-1300m North and East Austria, S Germany 1300-1800m N Switzerland, most of Austria, NE Italy 1800-2200m SW Austria, S Switzerland, NW Italy, France/Italy border
    Sun – 1000m-1300m Austria, S Germany N Switzerland, most of Austria, N Italy 1500-1800m, S Switzerland, NW Italy, France/Italy border
    [attachment=248237:Alps Temps 3 Apr + 24.png] [attachment=248236:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 48.png]

    Mon – 800m-1000m Austria, S Germany 1000-1400m N Italy, most of Switzerland 1600m-2000m Switzerland/France/Italy border areas
    Tues – 800m-1000m N Austria, S Germany 1000-1400m S Austria, N Italy, most of Switzerland 1600m-2000m Switzerland/France/Italy border areas
    [attachment=248235:Alps 3 Apr Temps +72.png] [attachment=248234:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 96.png]

    Tues – 800m-1000m N Austria, S Germany 1000-1400m S Austria, N Italy, most of Switzerland 1600m-2000m Switzerland/France/Italy border areas
    Wed – 1200m-1600m N Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland 1800m-2200m SW Austria, NE Italy, S Switzerland, French Alps 2400m-2600m NW Italy
    [attachment=248246:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 96.png] [attachment=248245:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 120.png]

    Thurs – 1200m-1600m N and E Austria, SE Germany 1600-2000m W Austria, SW Germany, NE Italy, E Switzerland 2200m-2600m W and Central Switzerland, French Alps, NW Italy
    Fri – 1000m-1400m Austria, S Germany 1400-1800m N and E Switzerland, 2000m-2400m S Switzerland, French Alps, NW Italy
    [attachment=248244:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 144.png] [attachment=248243:Alps 3 Apr Temps + 168.png][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Precipitation[/b]
    Saturday - Overnight precipitation becomes a bit more organised during the day and edges south as we move in to the evening. Snow levels 1000m (Notrth-1800m early afternoon, this dropping to under 1000m for all areas by evening.

    Sunday – Showers for most of the day, these heavy at times during the afternoon, before fading away quickly by evening, snow level circa 1000m-1400m

    Monday and Tuesday – Precipitation is likely to develop over Austria, during the afternoon Monday, turning moderate at times, this continuing overnight before fading during Tuesday snow levels generally below 800m

    Wednesday to Friday – Staying dry in the west, spells of precipitation possibly over Austria at times, some of this heavy and falling as snow above 800m generally sometimes this rising to 1200m during daylight hours.

    [b]Summary [/b]

    A definite split this week coldest towards the North and East with further snow likely to moderate levels, and milder drier and possibly sunnier towards the South West.[/font][/size]

    That is that for another year, the chat goes on at [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81729-the-alps-snow-thread-season-20142015/page-23"]https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81729-the-alps-snow-thread-season-20142015/page-23[/url] but having a clean cut off makes more sense.

    Hopefully you have enjoyed reading these blogs and they have been informative and maybe at times even accurate!!.

    One last thing if you are on the slopes this week, be mindful of the avalanche risk off slopes and take plenty of sun cream.
  11. J10
    [size=4][font=arial]I must start by expressing the shock of the terrible events of the plane crash over the Alps earlier this week. The whole event is a terrible tragedy and our thoughts go out to all those effected.

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Moving on to the far less important matter of snow in the Alps, it has been a rather mixed week, with further snow at higher slopes, and much milder conditions lower down, In many ways classic early spring conditions.
    These rather mixed conditions are set to continue, with milder spells, and colder spells this week at different times, but with the prospect of more general colder weather for Easter weekend.

    [b]Synoptics [/b]
    The current pattern over NW Europe is for a large area of High Pressure to be centred over the Iberian Peninsula. The Alps on the far east of this pattern has North Easterly winds.
    Into the weekend and the winds turns to more of a westerly over North Western Europe, this increasingly feeding into milder weather over the weekend for the Alps.
    [attachment=247776:Alps 27 Mar.JPG] [attachment=247775:Alps 27 Mar + 24.JPG]

    Into next week and winds veering North Westerly briefly on Monday turning things colder more especially for Eastern areas. Back milder in all areas on Tuesday with Westerly winds.
    However form Wednesday onwards, a more sustained North Westerly blast is expected, with some very cold air for the time of year.
    [attachment=247774:Alps 27 Mar + 72.JPG] [attachment=247773:Alps 27 Mar + 120.JPG]

    The cold more especially for Eastern areas, as winds veer more to a North Easterly signs that if may affect all parts of the Alps over Easter weekend, however this is a long way off. Indeed the Weather Maps have changed significantly since this morning.
    [attachment=247772:Alps 27 Mar + 168.JPG]

    [b]Temperatures[/b]
    Quite often a South West / North East split this week, coldest generally towards the North and East
    Sat – 1000m-1400m North and East Austria, SE Germany 1600m-1800m rest of Southern Germany, Northern and Central Austria, NE Switzerland, Liechtenstein, NE Italy 2000-2200m most of Switzerland, NW Italy, French Alps
    Sun – 1600m-2000m S Germany, French Alps, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, N and E Austria 2000m-2400m S Switzerland, SW Austria, N Italy
    [attachment=247771:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 24.png] [attachment=247770:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 48.png]

    Mon - 1400m-1800m Northern Austria, SE Germany 1800-2000m Central Austria, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein 2000-2400m S Switzerland, S Austria, French Alps, N Italy
    Tue – 1800m-2200m Northern Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland 2200m-2600m rest of Switzerland and Austria, French Alps, 2600m-3000m N Italy
    [attachment=247769:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 72.png] [attachment=247768:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 96.png]

    Wed – 900m-1200m Northern Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland 1200m-1800m Central Switzerland and Austria , French Alps, 1800m-2100m N Italy
    Thurs– 1000m-1200m Northern Austria, Far SE Germany 1400m-1800m Central Southern Germany, Central Austria, NE Italy 1800m-2400m rest of Austria, Switzerland, French Alps, NW Italy, Liechtenstein

    Fri – 600m-1200m Northern Austria, Far SE Germany 1200m-1800m rest of S Germany, N Austria, N Switzerland 1800-2100m S Switzerland, SW Austria, N Italy
    [attachment=247767:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 120.png] [attachment=247766:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 144.png] [attachment=247765:Alps 27 Mar Temps + 168.png]

    [b]Precipitation [/b]

    Sat – After overnight precipitation in Central Austria fades, it will turn drier for a time, however a warm front will edge in from the North west, bringing moderate rain for a time (snow above 2000m) from evening onwards this edging east overnight.

    Sunday - Patchy precipitation to start the day for northern areas this becoming heavier and prolonged with only the far south east staying dry. Snow above1800-2000m, with some significant snowfall totals likely.
    [attachment=247764:Alps 27 Mar Precip 60.png]
    Mon - The precipitation continuing into Monday with prolonged precipitation in many areas, with snow levels dropping to 1200m-1500m on the northern edge of the front. Further moderate snowfalls are likely in many northern and central areas on higher slopes.
    [attachment=247763:Alps 27 Mar Precip + 78.png]
    Tuesday and Wednesday – Showery to start, with the next front edging down from the north in the evening. This continuing into Wednesday but becoming patchier, the snow levels dropping from around 1800m on Tuesday to 800m on Wednesday.

    Thursday and Friday – looking mostly dry on Thursday, with the next front edging south on Friday with snow down to around 1000m.[/font][/size]

    The precipitation total suggest a far amount this week, especially for Northern areas, however not all of this will b of snow
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=247777:Rhgfs14414.gif]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Very much a week of contrast, mild to start (especially in the west). but turning colder especially towards the end of the week. more especially toward the east. Tentative signs of some cold weather over the Alps for Easter but time will tell, and eastern areas always favoured. [/font][/size]
  12. J10
    [size=3][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]As we move into March things have warmed up somewhat, with spring snow conditions across the Alps, however good snow remains at altitude. Of course this mean that risk of avalanches remains. [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial][b]Synoptics [/b][/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]The weekend starts with High Pressure centred over Scandinavia and North East Europe. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Winds are Northern Easterly over the weekend, and veers South Easterly for the start of next week, as the high pressure edges away to the North East for a time. This allows Low Pressure to edge in especially for Italy and at times other southern parts of the Alps so unsettled here for a time. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247003:Alps 13 Mar.JPG] [attachment=246990:Alps 13 Mar + 24.JPG] [attachment=246991:Alps 13 Mar + 48.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Over the weekend and into next week, temperatures are around average for the time of year. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Towards the weekend there is a level of uncertainty but the current trend is for high pressure to edge back in over Central Europe turning things more settled and colder in the east with a easterly feed. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=246992:Alps 13 Mar + 72.JPG] [attachment=246993:Alps 13 Mar + 96.JPG]
    [attachment=246994:Alps 13 Mar + 120.JPG] [attachment=246997:Alps 13 Mar + 144.JPG] [attachment=246998:Alps 13 Mar + 168.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial][b]Precipitation [/b][/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Saturday – A few showers are possible in the morning for SW Alps, perhaps becoming a bit more widespread and heavy into the afternoon, but always concentrated towards the South West. (French Alps, S Switzerland, NW Italy into SW Austria), Snow is likely above 1600m daytime, this dropping back to 1000m overnight.[/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247015:Alps 13 Mar Precip + 24.png][/font][/size]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday – The northern half of the laps should be dry throughout, however heavy precipitation is expected over Western Italy, is set to spread over the rest of Italy, and fringe Southern parts of Switzerland and Austria, giving moderate precipitation at times. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=247014:Alps 13 Mar Precip + 48.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Monday and Tuesday - This pattern remaining very similar right though until Tuesday when the precipitation should slowly fade away, so dry for Northern Alps. Some moderate precipitation is likely at times over Southern parts of Switzerland and Austria, but the concentration remains over parts of Italy. Large precipitation totals are likely over much of Northern Italy with some very snowfalls above 1800m or so, with much of the precipitation falling as snow above 1400m, especially Sunday and Monday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=247013:Alps 13 Mar Precip + 72.png] [attachment=247012:Alps 13 Mar Precip + 84.png][/size][/font]

    [size=3][font=arial]Wednesday – Mostly dry to start however showers developing into the afternoon, snow above 1200m to the east, 2000m to the west. [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Thursday and Friday A lot of uncertainty but the current trend is for patchy precipitation over Thursday, dry Friday[/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Looking at Snow-forecast [/font], it suggests over 1m over snow over arts of Northern Italy, over next 6 days, possibly a lot more in places. [/size]
    [attachment=247017:snow amounts to day 3.JPG] [attachment=247016:snow amounts to day 4-6.JPG]

    [attachment=247018:13 Mar + 48.gif] [attachment=247019:13 Mar + 120.gif]

    [size=3][font=arial][b]Temperatures [/b][/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Sat – 800m-1200m Eastern Austria 1200m-1600m Southern Germany, Northern Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Western French Alps NE Italy 1800m-2000m SW Austria, Central Northern Italy Southern Switzerland, France/Italy border [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Sun – 1200m-1600m Eastern Austria, N Italy, parts of S Switzerland 1800m-2000m most of the Alps [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247004:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 24.png] [attachment=247005:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 48.png][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Mon – 1400m-1600m South East Austria, NE Austria 1800m-2000m French Alps, S and W Switzerland 2000-2200m rest of Switzerland, W Austria, S Germany [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Tue – 1400m-1800m South East Austria, 1800m-2000m N Italy 2000-2400m French Alps, Switzerland, Liechtenstein most of Austria 2400m-2600m S Germany [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247006:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 72.png] [attachment=247007:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 96.png][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Wed– 800m-1200m E Austria 1200m-1800m Central Austria and NE Italy 2000-2200m rest of Alps [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Thur 800m-1400m NE Austria, SE Germany 1200m-1800m Central Austria and NE Italy 2000-2200m rest of Alps [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial]Fri -1000m-1600m E Austria, SE Germany 1600m-1800m Central Austria and NE Italy, Central Southern Germany 2000-2400m rest of Alps [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=247008:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 120.png] [attachment=247009:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 144.png] [attachment=247010:Alps 13 Mar Temps + 168.png][/font][/size]

    [b][font=arial][size=3]Summary[/size][/font][/b]

    [size=3][font=arial]Another mostly mild week with spring like weather and conditions for much of the week, there are a few exceptions[/font], turning colder over Austria after mid week. Italy is also another exception with shed loads of snow likely this week, [/size]
  13. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font]
    Conditions have not been that bad over the Alps over the past week, with some milder weather over the weekend, however it has turned colder over the past couple of days with some further heavy snow in places.

    [font=arial][b]Synoptics[/b][/font]

    Currently there is High Pressure centered just to the north of the Alps. with a mild Tropical Maritime airmass on SW winds edging in for NW Europe and this turning things milder for the western alps, but still a very cold easterly flow over the Eastern Alps.
    [attachment=246484:Alps 6 Mar.JPG]

    Over the weekend the high Pressure moves steadily North and Eastwards, allowing the milder air to edge across all part of the Alps by the end of Sunday.
    [attachment=246490:Alps 6 Mar + 24.JPG] [attachment=246489:Alps 6 Mar + 48.JPG]

    For the start of Next week, general High pressure remains over the Alps, so staying dry and mostly mild.
    [attachment=246488:Alps 6 Mar +72.JPG] [attachment=246487:Alps 6 Mar + 96.JPG]

    By midweek and towards the end of the week, High Pressure builds in from the north with very cold air edging in from the west, this is especially true for Eastern parts of the Alps, but it may move further west by Friday, some uncertainty on this.
    [attachment=246486:Alps 6 Mar + 120.JPG] [attachment=246485:Alps 6 Mar + 144.JPG] [attachment=246491:Alps 6 Mar + 168.JPG]

    [font=arial][b]Precipitation [/b][/font]
    [font=arial]A very dry week across the Alps generally, the only notable precipitation is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front edges down from the north east into S Germany and Austria. So some patchy precipitation for Germany Tuesday night pushing into Austria where it will continue for much of Wednesday with snow above about 1000m or so. [/font]

    [attachment=246506:Rhgfs10214.gif]
    Precipitation to Tuesday 6pm largely nil

    [attachment=246505:Rhgfs17414.gif]
    but a bit over Eastern areas over the following days.

    [b]Temperatures[/b]

    [font=arial]Sat – 1000m-1500m Eastern Austria. Far SE Germany 1800-2200m Western Austria, NE Italy, E Switzerland, Central Southern Germany 2400-3000m SW Germany, W Switzerland, French Alps, N Italy [/font]
    [font=arial]Sun – 1000m-1500m South East Austria. 1800-2400m SW Austria, N Italy, parts of S Switzerland 2600-3000m French Alps, NW Austria, most of Switzerland and Germany [/font]
    [attachment=246497:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 24.png] [attachment=246498:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 48.png]

    [font=arial]Mon – 1400m-1800m South East Austria. 2200m-2400m SW Austria, N Italy, parts of S Switzerland 2400-2800m French Alps, NW Austria, most of Switzerland and Germany[/font]
    [font=arial]Tue – 1800m-2200m Austria. 2200m-2400m Central areas (east to west) of the Alps 2400-2600m French Alps, Western Switzerland and SW Germany, NW Italy [/font]
    [attachment=246496:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 72.png] [attachment=246495:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 96.png]
    [font=arial]Wed– 800m-1200m NE Austria, SE Germany, 1200m-1800m rest of Austria, E Switzerland, most of S Germany, NE Italy 2000m-3000m Far SW Germany, W Switzerland, NW Italy, French Alps [/font]
    [font=arial]Thur 800m-1200m NE Austria, SE Germany, 1200-1600m most of rest of Alps 1600m-2000m border area SW Austria, N Italy and S Switzerland and into S Switzerland generally [/font]
    [font=arial]Fri 800m-1200m NE Austria, SE Germany, 1200-1600m most of rest of Alps 1600m-2000m border area SW Austria, N Italy and S Switzerland and into S Switzerland generally [/font]
    [attachment=246494:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 120.png] [attachment=246493:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 144.png] [attachment=246492:Alps 6 Mar Temps + 168.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    A mild to very mild week for western areas, a but more mixed further east, with some colder spells at times. Mostly dry with a good deal of sunshine , so take your sunscreen. A good week to be on the slopes, but expect spring snow conditions and again the warm weather means that the avalanche risk is set to remain high especially off piste.[/size]
  14. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    There was some good snowfall over parts of the Alps last weekend with some parts of Northern Italy seeing 1m of snow. However it was not quite as extensive as forecast with parts of Switzerland, not doing as well as expected. Generally though there are good conditions over the Alps albeit with the recent sunny and warm weather in the afternoon, giving some afternoon spring snow conditions.

    [b]Synoptics[/b]

    [size=3][font=arial]Currently over the Alps there are South Westerly winds and High Pressure however this pattern is set to change overnight and into Saturday. Winds are set to veer to the North West introducing a Polar Maritime air mass, with Low Pressure edging in. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245393:Alps 20 Feb + 24.JPG] [attachment=245387:Alps 20 Feb + 48.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Apart from a brief spell on Milder air on Monday, it will be a generally cool or cold week with 850hpa temps below freezing and often below -5c. The coldest weather always reserved for the Northern areas of the Alps. It will be generally unsettled with Low Pressure over Italy and East to North East winds over the Alps on the northern flank of the Low Pressure. [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245388:Alps 20 Feb + 72.JPG] [attachment=245389:Alps 20 Feb + 96.JPG]

    [attachment=245390:Alps 20 Feb + 120.JPG] [attachment=245391:Alps 20 Feb + 144.JPG] [attachment=245392:Alps 20 Feb + 168.JPG][/font][/size]

    [font=arial][b]Precipitation [/b][/font]
    [size=3][font=arial]Not for the first time, precipitation edges in to start the weekend initially for the far west, but moving eastwards to cover SW Germany, Switzerland the French Alps and NW Italy by Saturday evening, but some moderate bursts. Snow levels 1000m for a time, but dropping to 600m later further north, [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245408:Precip SAt pm.png] [attachment=245409:Precip Saturday evening.png] [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]This continuing into Sunday, but by now the focus on NE Italy, Austria and SE Germany, still with some moderate bursts, however turning drier everywhere by the early hours of Monday. Snow levels 600m on the northern edge, 1000-1200m further south. [/font][/size]
    [[size=3][font=arial]attachment=245404:Precip early Sunday.png][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]The next frontal system edging into the West on Monday evening, several hours of precipitation as it edges SE by Tuesday however it stalls over SE Austria, NE Italy and fringes SE Germany and SE Switzerland. Snow levels 1400m on the front edge, dropping to 1000m and then 800m by Tuesday afternoon. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245405:Precip early Tuesday.png][/font][/size] [size=3][font=arial][attachment=245407:Precip midday Tuesday.png][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]The precipitation continuing over Eastern parts on Wednesday although fragmenting and becoming showery. Snow Levels 600m-800m. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][size=3][font=arial][attachment=245411:Precip Wed.png] [/font][/size][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Further showery precipitation expected Thursday and to a lesser extent Friday, but becoming increasingly concentrated to the South East, Snow to 600-800m, but rising to over 1200m daytime Friday. [/font][/size]
    [size=3][font=arial][size=3][font=arial][attachment=245410:Precip Thursday.png] [/font][/size] [attachment=245406:Precip Friday.png] [/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Moderate precipitation levels over much of the Alps, possibly drier over Northern Central areas. [/font][/size]
    [attachment=245413:Precip 72.gif] [attachment=245414:Precip 168.gif]
    [size=3][font=arial][b]Temperatures[/b]
    Sat – 800-1000m NW Switzerland, Far SW Germany, 1000-1400 most of Austria and Switzerland, French Alps 1600-2000m Central Southern Germany
    Sun – 600-800m S Germany, N Switzerland, French Alps and N Austria 1000-1400m S Austria and S Switzerland, 1200m-1600m N Italy
    [attachment=245394:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 24.png] [attachment=245395:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 48.png]

    Mon – 1200-1600m Eastern and Central Austria, 1600-1800 N Italy, 2000-200m S Germany, Switzerland and French Alps
    Tue – 600-900m S Germany, Switzerland, French Alps and NW Austria 900m-1300m S Austria and N Italy
    [attachment=245396:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 72.png] [attachment=245397:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 96.png][/font][/size]

    [font=arial]Wed– 700-900m S Germany, French Alps and most of Switzerland and Austria 900m-1300m Far East Austria and N Italy[/font]
    [font=arial]Thur 800m-1200m S Germany, N Switzerland, French Alps and N Austria 1200m-1600m SW Austria, S Switzerland 1400m-1800m N Italy [/font]
    [font=arial][size=4]Fri 800m-1200m S Germany, N Switzerland, French Alps and N Austria 1200m-1600m SW Austria, S Switzerland 1400m-1800m N Italy [/size][/font]
    [attachment=245398:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 120.png] [attachment=245399:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 144.png] [attachment=245400:Alps 20 Feb Temps + 168.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    After such a slow start to the week, things continue to look very decent. By no means the coldest week in the Alps, not the snowiest but most areas are likely to see some fresh snow this week, even if at times, some of the precipitation will be of rain at lower slopes levels.

    All in all not a bad skiing week for late winter.
  15. J10
    [size=3][b]Summary[/b]

    The recent weeks have seen a continuous improvement across the Alps with good snow levels in most places.

    [b]Synoptics [/b]

    The current pattern is High Pressure over the UK, with very cold East to North Easterly winds over the Alps. the pattern similar for Monday, and turning slightly less cold.

    [attachment=244445:Alps 8 Feb.JPG] [attachment=244446:Alps 8 Feb + 24.JPG]

    The High Pressure edges further South East from Tuesday, with the cold feed from the East bring cut off and bring replaced with a milder South Easterly feed.

    [attachment=244447:Alps 8 Feb + 48.JPG] [attachment=244448:alps 8 Feb + 72.JPG]

    By the end of the week, no real dominant weather pattern for the Alps, with light winds and 850hpa falling back to around zero.

    [attachment=244450:Alps 8 Fen + 96.JPG] [attachment=244449:Alps 8 Feb + 120.JPG]

    [b][font=arial]Precipitation [/font][/b]

    [font=arial]Moderate to heavy snow [to around 400m] for Austria, S Germany and Eastern Switzerland. Snow continuing overnight for parts of Austria and SE Germany. [/font]
    [attachment=244460:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 9.png] [attachment=244461:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 15.png]
    [font=arial]The precipitation building up Monday morning into the afternoon, with heavy precipitation for several hours for SE Germany and NE Austria, with moderate precipitation for other parts of Austria, Snow about 400m-600m][/font]

    [attachment=244462:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 27.png] [attachment=244463:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 33.png] [attachment=244464:Alps 8 Feb Precip + 39.png]
    [font=arial]Precipitation continuing during Monday evening overnight before fading away. [/font]

    [font=arial]With pressure building a little during the rest of the week, turning much drier. [/font][/size]

    [size=3]Total precipitation 48 hrs and 12hrs, very much a case of spot the difference. [/size]
    [size=3][attachment=244465:Rhgfs4814.gif] [attachment=244466:Rhgfs12014.gif][/size]

    [size=3][b][font=arial]Temps[/font][/b]

    [font=arial]Sun – 200-600m most of Austria, S Germany 600m- 900m SW Austria, N and E Switzerland, NW French Alps, 900m-1200m S Switzerland, NE Italy, 1500m-1800m NW Italy and SE French Alps[/font]
    [font=arial]Mon – 200-600m N Austria, S Germany N Switzerland, 800m-1400m SW Austria, S Switzerland, NW French Alps 1800m-2000m NW Italy and SE French Alps, Far SW Switzerland [/font]
    [attachment=244454:Alps 8 Feb Temps.png] [attachment=244455:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 24.png]

    [font=arial]Tue – 800-1000m N Austria, S Germany N Switzerland, 1000m-2400m SW Austria, S Switzerland, French Alps, N Italy [/font]
    [font=arial]Wed – 1800-2000m SE Austria, 2000m-2400m rest of Alps[/font]
    [attachment=244456:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 48.png] [attachment=244457:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 72.png]

    T[font=arial]hurs – 1400-1800m SE Austria, 1800m-2200m rest of Alps
    Fri – 400-800m E Austria, 1200m-1600m most of Alps, 1800m-2200m SW Austria, S Switzerland, SE French Alps , Far NW Italy [/font]
    [attachment=244458:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 96.png] [attachment=244459:Alps 8 Feb Temps + 120.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    A cold start to the week with some heavy snowfalls likely to quite low levels for S Germany and parts of Austina. Thereafter a bit milder and somewhat drier.

    Definitely a week to be on the slopes rather for long term snow retention.[/size]
  16. J10
    [b]Current Situation [/b]
    Last week it was reported that conditions across the Alps were pretty poor for the time of year. The past week has been very mixed indeed with some snow over last weekend. This was followed by some very mild temps with freezing level reaching over 3000m. However for Christmas it turned colder with a little fresh snow in places.

    [b]Synoptic Situation[/b]
    However there is a big change for this weekend and into next week already in progress. The Low Pressure system that brought the rain and snow to the UK on Boxing Day is moving South East into the Alps during Saturday bringing heavy snowfall and colder air as it does so. Sunday sees this Low Pressure centre move away to Southern Italy, with North Easterly winds feeding in across the Alps. Some snow will continue for a time but gradually turning drier from the North.
    [attachment=235350:Alps 27 Dec.JPG] [attachment=235349:Alps 27 Dec +24.JPG]

    Monday and Tuesday sees High Pressure centred over the UK settling things down for the Alps but keeping very cold North to North Easterly winds in place over the Alps.
    [attachment=235348:Alps 27 Dec +48.JPG] [attachment=235347:Alps 27 Dec + 72.JPG]

    By Midweek, The High Pressure system is set to sink to become centred over the Alps [1040mb], so remaining dry and very cold with Easterly winds.
    [attachment=235346:Alps 27 Dec +96.JPG] [attachment=235345:Alps 27 Dec +12.JPG]

    Staying dry, settled and cold over the Alps towards the weekend, but signs of the cold moderating towards the weekend.

    [attachment=235344:Alps 27 Dec +144.JPG]

    [b]Precipitation[/b]
    This is very much concentrated for this weekend. The above mentioned could front has already pushed in across NW parts of the Alps with precipitation this morning for the French Alps, Switzerland, and SW Germany. This will spread SE during the day, with some precipitation likely across the Alps, heavy in places. Snow levels 1000m to start, 400m later.

    Patchy precipitation will continue through Sunday across the Alps, slowly becoming drier from the North later. Snow levels 400-600m daytime, sea level overnight. Up to 20-30cm of snow is possible in places, from the start of the snow on Saturday until it clears on Sunday.

    Monday sees another front edging in from the North, bringing snow for Northern and Central areas through Monday and early Tuesday before fading, this falling as snow to all levels and 5cm or so possible.

    [attachment=235356:Alps Precip 27 Dec.png] [attachment=235355:Alps Precip 27 Dec +12.png] [attachment=235354:Alps Precip + 24.png] [attachment=235353:Alps Precip 27 Dec +24.png] [attachment=235351:Alps Precip 27 Dec +27.png] [attachment=235352:Alps Precip 27 Dec +33.png]

    The majority of the snowfall towards the North West of the Alps.

    [attachment=235375:Rmgfs144sum 27 dec.gif]

    [b]Freezing Levels[/b] (Based on 6Hz GFS run - Sat 28 Dec)

    Sat – 400m-600m Eastern Austria, 800m-1000m for Central areas, up to 1200m in the Far South West.
    Sun – Sea Level to 500m Eastern Austria, Southern Germany, and the French Alps, 600m-900m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria into Italy
    Mon – Sea Level to 400m Eastern Austria, Southern Germany, and the French Alps, rest of Austria and Switzerland, 500m-1100m Italy
    [attachment=235362:Alps Temps 27 Dec + 24.png] [attachment=235361:Alps Temps 27 Dec +48.png]

    Tue – Sea Level except 50m-250m Italy
    Wed – Sea Level except 0m-100m Italy
    [attachment=235360:Alps Temps 27 Dec +72.png] [attachment=235359:Alps Temps 27 Dec +96.png]

    Thu– Sea Level to 400m generally, 400m to 700m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria, NW Italy
    Fri– Sea Level to 400m N and E Austria, S Germany, 500m to 800m generally but up to 1100m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria, NW Italy
    [attachment=235358:Alps Temps 27 Dec +12.png] [attachment=235357:Alps Temps 27 Dec +144.png]

    Bearing in mind, these are maximum freezing levels and generally resorts will be below freezing the majority of the week.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Turning much colder with some much needed snowfall this weekend. The cold temps next week mean that snow cannons will be in full operation and the current snow pack will be frozen and this should really create a base of snow for many resorts even at low levels.

    Early next week should see the best skiing conditions of the winter [so far].
  17. J10
    [b]Current Situation [/b]
    Definitely a week of contrasts, fronts from the North West brought snow to the Alps for the mid part of this week especially on Wednesday with parts of the French Alps and Switzerland seeing 20-30cm of fresh snow on upper slopes.
    However there is a big but in that temperatures rose significantly with freeing levels well above 2000m.
    In summary conditions are better than last week and with some good skiing conditions at the highest slopes. However conditions are still generally worse than normal at this time of year and lower slopes are either closed or offer pretty poor conditions.


    [b]Synoptic Situation[/b]

    There is an alternating pattern this coming week, ranging from mild South westerly and a Tropical Maritime air mass and a colder Polar Maritime air mass from the North West.
    Currently there is a South Westerly flow and a Tropical Maritime air mass over the Alps with 850HPa of +7c to +8c for parts of Austria.

    [attachment=233983:Alps 19 Dec.png]

    This is short-lived though as it turns colder from the North West, with a Polar Maritime air mass and a cold front bringing some precipitation overnight. This cold weather slowly spreading south east across the Alps on Saturday,

    [attachment=233984:Alps 19 Dec +24.JPG]

    However this in turn is short lived as on Sunday turning milder as the winds revert South Westerly over the Western Alps. However remaining much colder over NE Austria for much of Sunday with 850HPa below -5c.

    [attachment=233990:Alps 19 Dec +51.JPG]
    Monday seeing things turning much milder across all the Alps with the Azores High also bringing drier conditions with 850Hpa up to +7 to +8c in places.

    [attachment=233991:Alps 19 Dec +75.JPG] [attachment=233986:Alps 19 Dec +96.JPG]

    This pattern looks likely to stay in charge through to Wednesday, with South Westerly winds and High Pressure, perhaps slightly less mild.

    [attachment=234007:Alps 19 Dec +120.JPG]

    More uncertainty for Christmas Day and the end of the week, but signs but signs of colder weather from the north with the greatest risk of this is over Eastern areas of the Alps especially for Austria.

    [attachment=234009:Alps 19 Dec +144.JPG]

    [b]Precipitation[/b]
    A weak cold Front from the NW edges in the overnight period into Saturday perhaps bringing a few cms of snow above 1500m to Northern parts of the Alps before it fizzles away Saturday morning.

    Another weak front from the north is set to give a few cms of snow to resort level to SE Germany, Western and Central areas of Austria during the early hours of Sunday morning.

    For Christmas Day, another weak front from the north is set to give a few cms of snow above about 1200-1500m for SE Germany, N Switzerland and Western and Central areas of Austria, but this is a lot of uncertainty about this.

    The precipitation very much concentrated on the North of the Alps with some southern areas being totally dry.

    [attachment=234022:Rmgfs144sum.gif]

    [b]Freezing Levels[/b] (Based on 12Hz GFS run - Fri 19 Dec)

    Sat – 1200m-1600m S Germany, Northern parts of Austria rising going south to over 2000m for for Northern Italy but colder later
    Sun – 800m-1000m North Eastern Austria rising steadily moving South and West, over 2000m for French Alps and SW Switzerland.
    [attachment=233967:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +24.png] [attachment=233968:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +48.png]
    Mon – 2200m-2400m Austria and SE Germany rising moving South and West, over 3000m for French Alps. S Switzerland and Italy.
    Tue – 2800m-3000m Austria and SE Germany rising moving South and West, 3200-3400m for French Alps. S Switzerland and Italy.
    Wed – 2200m-2400m NW Alps slowly rising to 2600-2800m further SE
    [attachment=233969:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +72.png] [attachment=233971:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +96.png][attachment=233973:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +120.png]
    Thu– 1000m NE Austria. 1600-1800m Central areas, over 2000m French Alps, S Switzerland and N Italy Fri – 600m NE Austria. 1200-1400m Central areas, 1600- 1800m French Alps and SW Switzerland.
    [attachment=233974:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +144.png][attachment=233975:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +168.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Turning colder briefly this weekend with a little snow, before much milder again for the start of next week.

    Signs of things turning a little colder for Christmas Day and the end of the week with a little snow, both more especially for Northern and Eastern parts of the Alps.
  18. J10
    [b]Current Situation [/b]

    There is High pressure centered (1028mb) over SE Europe, with pressure over 1020mb for most of mainland Europe. winds over western Europe are coming from a mild SW direction for much of the Alps and for Western parts of Europe including Southern Scandinavia. Colder air is restricted to the far north of Scandinavia where this a northerly flow and for Russia. The mild weather looks well set for much of mainland Europe, however Scandinavia is set to see a change, and this will be discussed in more detail below.

    [attachment=123542:Current 18th Nov 500HPa.png]

    [b]Synoptic Progression[/b]

    For most of Europe very little change over the next 24 hours, High pressure remains centred (1028mb) over SE Europe, winds remain from a mild S/SE direction. Fronts should remain to the west of the UK, although some rain cannot be ruled out in N and W areas. It should also be mostly dry over the Alps. Sunday sees almost an identical situation, a flabby High pressure covering most of Europe centred over SE parts (1026mb), this giving mostly dry and settled conditions over the UK and the Alps. The colder weather initially over Northern Scandinavia edging further south and then east over the weekend.

    [attachment=123534:18 Nov +24.png] [attachment=123535:18 Nov +48.png]

    By Monday, the whole situation moves East, the High Pressure centre moves away into Asia, with Atlantic fronts finally making headway over the UK, the Alps should see lower pressure but ti should remain mostly dry. Winds for much of Europe of a southerly orientation so remaining mild. Tuesday sees a big area of High pressure build over Scandinavia, bringing mild weather with southerly winds on its western flank, but northerlies on its eastern flank so bitter air over Eastern Scandinavia and especially Russia. Further south over Europe very much in between weather patterns but remaining mild with winds from the West or South.

    [attachment=123536:18 Nov +72.png] [attachment=123537:18 Nov +96.png]

    Wednesday sees the High pressure (1036mb) edge further east to be centred over Western Russia, so mild over Scandinavia but increasing bitter over Russia. Polar Maritime air starting to edge in the far NW parts of the UK, as a cold air pushes SE, but generally mild with ridging High pressure from the SW, with winds from deep to the SW for the rest of the UK and Northern Europe. The Alps and Southern Europe seeing Easterly winds on the northerly flank of Low Pressure centred over Northern Italy.

    By Thursday, there is High Pressure over much of Central Europe, so mostly settled over the Alps, and remaining mild. Very unsettled for the UK and Scandinavia with some heavy rain, mild to start, over the UK but turning colder after the cold front passes through. Remaining very cold in the far east of Europe including Russia.

    For Friday, the colder Polar Maritime air edging SE into Central Europe and the Alps, this gives the potential of snowfalls to quite low levels over the Alps for the first time in a while.

    [attachment=123538:18 Nov +120.png] [attachment=123533:18 Nov +144.png] [attachment=123539:18 Nov +168.png][attachment=123542:Current 18th Nov 500HPa.png]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    Saturday 18th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern and NE Austria, Germany and Northern Switzerland, around 1200 for much of Switzerland and Western Austria.

    FL rising to 2200-2500m for France and most of Switzerland, 2700-2900m in SE Austria. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally. Mostly Dry perhaps a little precipitation in the far west during the evening.

    [attachment=123543:18 Nov +24.JPG]

    Sunday 19th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 500-1000m in Eastern and NE Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol.

    FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally. After early morning precipitation moves away from the west, Dry throughout day and night.

    [attachment=123544:18 Nov +48.JPG]

    Monday 20th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol and into Eastern Switzerland.

    FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +4-8c generally, but closer to 1-2c on the Italy border with Austria and Switzerland, Dry throughout day and night.

    [attachment=123545:18 Nov +72.JPG]

    Tuesday 21st Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol and into Eastern Switzerland.

    FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally.

    [attachment=123546:18 Nov +96.JPG]

    Wednesday 22th Nov - Nighttime FL similar to previous nights, rising to around 2000-2400m, 850Hpa around 4-6c in Central areas, 2-4c elsewhere. The low pressure to the south will give some showers, from the early morning for Southern Switzerland, E France and Italy only dying out slowly during the day.

    [attachment=123547:18 Nov +120.JPG]

    Thursday 23rd Nov - Nighttime FL 300-600m in parts of Austria closer to 1500m over SW Switzerland, rising to 2400m over France, 1600-1800m over Austria and mostly dry. 850Hpa around 4-6c in Central areas, 2-4c elsewhere. The low pressure to the south will give some showers, from the early morning for Southern Switzerland, E France and Italy only dying out slowly during the day.


    [attachment=123548:18 Nov +144.JPG]

    Friday 24th Nov - Nighttime Fl 1500-2000m over Western areas, 300-600 over E Austria. A cold front will bring some precipitation to the NW Alps and will spread to Central areas by evening. FL 1200-1400m to the NW of the front, 1600-2100m ahead of it. However by evening, snow levels down to around 500-800m with moderate falls in places.

    [attachment=123549:18 Nov +168.JPG]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Mostly settled and mild to start, but the chance of some much needed snow just before next weekend.
  19. J10
    This is the 4th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],

    [b]Previous Blogs Summaries [/b]
    No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Postive
    No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Postive
    No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral

    At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
    2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]

    By next week, we will be starting to get into Long Range for the festival, and this will be reflected in the forecast.

    So moving on to the detail.
    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

    [attachment=214568:Pressure June 31 May.png] [attachment=214566:Temps June 31 May.png] [attachment=214571:Rainfall June 31 May.png]

    Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (120-150%) , and also above average in Southern England (100-120%), and worse than last weeks forecast.
    Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, the positive anomaly slightly less generally than last week.
    Pressure is forecast to be higher than average in Northern UK, and less than average in southern areas, in both cases worse than last week.

    All in all, uniformly worse forecast compared to last week, however this is also picking up that short term models are suggesting a wet and unsettled start to June, so no massive surprise.

    [attachment=214569:Pressure July 31 May.png] [attachment=214567:Temps July 31 May.png] [attachment=214570:Rainfall July 31 May.png]

    Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (160%), and below average in Southern areas (80%), however the area of below average rainfall is further north than last week and covers a great areas.
    Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, almost identical compared to last week.
    Pressure is forecast to be marginally above average, which is slightly worse compared to last week.
    In summary, looking slightly drier than last week, but with slightly lower pressure.

    [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b][code=auto:0] CFS RunDate obtain Rating Pressure [Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure] Winds Rain Temps 24 May 00HZ 25-May 8.0 LP over west to start, High Pressure building in from SW, settled thereafter NW Mostly Dry, only odd slight shower Wed Light Orange to Orange 25 May 00HZ 26-May 9.0 HP over the UK for the festival period. NE Mostly Dry, perhaps odd chance of shower Light Orange 26 May 00HZ 27-May 4.0 LP mostly in control, HP just away to south SW to NW Wet Wed, Thurs and Sunday, Dry Other days Yellow / Light Orange 27 May 00HZ 28-May 7.5 HP to start, LP for a time from NW, then HP ridges for weekend SW Dry/Light showers Wed-Fri+Sun, frontal rain sat Light Orange to Orange 28 May 00HZ 29-May 6.0 Battle between LP to North and ridging HP to south HP wins in end SW Some rain, but southern areas miss worst of it Yellow / Light Orange 29 May 00HZ 30-May 5.5 Battle between LP to North and ridging HP to south, LP generally on top SW Rain periods at times, some heavy, some dry days Yellow / Light Orange 30 May 00HZ 31-May 8.0 HP building from SW, LP to North not too far away mid festival NW Odd Shower but mostly Dry Yellow / Orange (cooling down) [/code]
    An average score of 6.85 (entirely subjective), but more forecasts going for a mostly dry festival 3, than a washout 1, with 3 somewhere in between, going on past records this is pretty good.

    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel...fsme_cartes.php[/url] )

    [b]Overall Summary[/b]

    [b]June[/b][code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m (G) z500 (G) PRMSL (G) Rainfall 25-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 0 to +1 Blue S England, Red Midland/Wales 26-May 1c to +2c +2c to +3c +1 to +2 -1 to 0 Blue S England, Light Red Midlands 27-May 1c to +2c +2c to +3c +4 to +5 +1 to +2 Blue all England/Wales 28-May -2c to -1c 0c -8 to -7 -5 to -4 Red all UK 29-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -3 to -2 -4 to -3 White / Red Southern UK 30-May 1c to +2c +1c to +2c +1 to +2 -1 to 0 Blue SW / S Cent S, Light Red Midlands 31-May +2c +2c to +3c +3 to +4 -1 Red Midlands, light Red Southern England[/code]
    In terms of upper air Temps 6 are marginally above average, 1 is below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
    In terms of pressure (at z500) 4 are above average, and 3 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 2 are above average and 5 below average
    In terms of rainfall, 2 are positive, 3 are negative, 2 are mixed

    The averages in terms of pressure are worse than last week, but the temps are slightly better.

    Overall a further slight worsening in the forecast compared to last week.

    [b]July[/b][code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m (G) z500 (G) PRMSL (G) Rainfall 25-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c 0 to +1 0 to +1 Blue SW Eng, Red SE Eng/Midlands 26-May -1c to 0c +2c to +3c -2 to -1 -1 to 0 Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 27-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c 0 to +1 -2 to -1 Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 28-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -1 to 0 +1 to +2 Blue S Eng, Light Red Midlands 29-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -5 to -4 -4 to -3 Mixed S Eng, Red Midlands 30-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 -1 to 0 Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 31-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c +4 to +5 3 Blue S Eng, Light Red Midlands [/code]
    In terms of upper air Temps 4 are marginally above average, 3 are below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
    In terms of pressure (at z500) 3 are above average, and 4 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 3 are above average and 4 below average
    In terms of rainfall, 2 are positive, 2 are negative, 3 are mixed

    The averages in terms of pressure and temps are worse than last week. Overall a further slight worsening in the forecast compared to last week.

    All details are on a spreadsheet in the main discussion thread. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/[/url]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    A contrast in the forecast, the monthly forecast for June have worsened compared to last week, however this is to be expected given the current forecast for the start of June now which are in the reliable time frame. The long range forecast from Raw CFS are quite good for late June, so a contradiction.

    Does a bad start to June make a bad end to June more likely, given the worsening forecasts for June overall, I am suggesting a slightly negative trend, but with the previso that this is partly explained by the bad start to June.

    So this weeks forecast is Neutral to Slightly Negative.
  20. J10
    Some of you have been very kind to send some site photos and conditions are looking good, and if the models are correct for the next 6 days, there should be no reason for this to change.

    I know some of you will be off to the festival for the next few days, so have a good one and remember to keep in touch via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts.

    Enough padding by me and on for with the forecast, which will again do the forecast for each day of the forecast.

    [b]Overview[/b]
    Tuesday is looking settled and dry, with some decent sunny spells.

    [b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
    High Pressure has ridged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1030-1032mb, The odd shower is still just about possible late into the afternoon according to GFS, however most of the day is set to be sunny or at least bright with sunny intervals. Max temps are expected to be in the range 18-20c, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.

    [i]Morning Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=175730:UKM 24a 48.gif] [attachment=175735:ECM 24a 48.gif] [attachment=175745:GFS 24 06 1.JPG]

    [i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=175740:UKM 24b 48.gif] [attachment=175761:ECM 24b 48.gif] [attachment=175750:GFS 24 12 1.png]

    [b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
    High Pressure continues to edge eastwards, with winds West to NW over Glastonbury, pressure again expected to be around 1028-1030mb. A weather front if still forecast to be embedded with the High Pressure. At this stage the continuing expectation if for the heaviest of the rain to hit Northern parts of England and Scotland with Glastonbury likely to see some patchy rain at worst possible into the afternoon, although this may change a little. The best of any sunshine is likely for the morning with more cloud expected into the afternoon and into the evening. Temps are expected to be around 19-20c.

    [i]Morning Runs [/i](L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=175729:UKM 24a 72.gif] [attachment=175734:ECM 24a 72.gif] [attachment=175744:GFS 24 06 2.JPG]

    [i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=175739:UKM 24b 72.gif] [attachment=175760:ECM 24b 72.gif] [attachment=175749:GFS 24 12 2.JPG]

    [b]Friday 28 June[/b]
    Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for High Pressure to be slightly further out west with winds West to North West, and for the pattern to be slightly flatter than on Thursday, with pressure around 1025-1030mb. Friday is now expected to be dry according to the models, but with quite a bit of uncertainty about the cloud amounts at this moment quite a lot of cloud is expected, especially to start the day. Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 22-24c, Meto say 18-19c, but even Meto have a big temp range for Friday.

    Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=175728:UKM 24a 96.gif] [attachment=175733:ECM 24a 96.gif] [attachment=175743:GFS 24 06 3.JPG]
    Afternoon Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=175738:UKM 24b 96.gif] [attachment=175759:ECM 24b 96.gif] [attachment=175748:GFS 24 12 3.JPG]

    [b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
    The general pattern of High Pressure to our South West is agreed, beyond this not much is certain, Pressure for the Glastonbury area between models ranges from 1023-1028mb, and some have the centre of the High quite close to the UK, others halfway to the Azores. It does seem likely to be dry, with fronts probably too far north to effect Glastonbury, and temps are likely to be low to mid 20s. Some sunny spells seem likely but some uncertainty at this stage.

    Morning Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=175727:UKM 24a 120.gif] [attachment=175732:ECM 24a 120.gif] [attachment=175742:GFS 24 06 4.JPG]

    Afternoon Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=175737:UKM 24b 120.gif] [attachment=175758:ECM 24b 120.gif] [attachment=175747:GFS 24 12 4.JPG]
    [b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
    There seems even less agreement on Sunday's weather, the general theme of High Pressure being nearby is agreed, beyond that no real agreement, with pressure forecast between 1022-1032mb and that is not even including the ensembles. Winds are likely to be from a West to South West direction and with 850Hpa temps around 10c, it not likely to be cold. So in summary looking dry, warm with temps low-mid 20s, and the chance of some sunshine.

    Morning Runs for Sunday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
    [attachment=175726:UKM 24a 144.gif] [attachment=175731:ECM 24a 144.gif] [attachment=175741:GFS 24 06 5.JPG] [attachment=175767:GEFS 24a 2.png]
    Afternoon Runs for Sunday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
    [attachment=175736:UKM 24b 144.gif] [attachment=175757:ECM 24b 144.gif] [attachment=175746:GFS 24 12 5.png] [attachment=175772:GEFS 24b 2.png]

    [b]Overall [/b]
    The total rainfall charts are very consistent with the lack of rainfall, both runs go for around 3mm of rainfall in the next 6 days. Equally the ensembles also support a very dry festival.
    [attachment=175769:Rmgfs144sum 24 1.gif] [attachment=175776:Rmgfs144sum 24 2.gif] [attachment=175766:GEFS 24a 4.png] [attachment=175775:GEFS 24b 3.png]

    The ensembles continue to go a pressure rise, and not dropping the pressure so much into next weekend either.
    [attachment=175765:GEFS 24a 3.png] [attachment=175774:GEFS 24b 4.png]
    [b]Summary[/b]
    From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building steadily next week to around 1030mb. Thereafter ECM the keenest of keeping High Pressure closest to us, GFS in the middle with UKMO less keen on doing so.
    Mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 5-6mm, not entirely sunny, with quite a lot of cloud on Thursday especially and to an extent Friday but bright at least on most other days. Temps looking good as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.

    [b]Ratings :- [/b]
    Yesterday in brackets
    Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking small including over the weekend.
    Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 8/10 (7.5/10) Currently the ground looks dry, and there is no forecast reason for this to change throughout the festival period .
    Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (7/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.

    [b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]

    To sum up in 3 words, Dry and Warm.
    It is Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
  21. J10
    There has been some rain on the Glastonbury Site over the past 24 hours, luckily the worst of the rain missed the site, with conditions underfoot remaining good.

    As you more closer to the timings of any forecast, you can move from the overlying synoptic pattern to more specific weather details, and as such I will from now from break down the forecasts by day for the first time, and try to give a bit more detail, although I will keep the weekend a bit more "broad brush" for the time being.

    [b]Overview[/b]
    A few more showers are possible on site today but after this pressure slowly building up from the south west and remaining dry with the outside chance of a shower on Tuesday, but not amounting to anything.
    [b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
    High Pressure has edged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1030mb, The odd shower is possible into the afternoon according to GFS however most of the day is set to be sunny or at least bright with sunny intervals. Temps are expected to be in high teens/low 20s, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.

    [i]Morning Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175606] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175610] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175630] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175653]

    [i]Afternoon Runs[/i] (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175668] [attachment=175674:ECM 23b 72.gif] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175663] [attachment=175679:GEFS 23b 1.png]

    [b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
    High Pressure continues to edge eastwards, with winds NW over Glastonbury, perhaps veering W later, pressure again expected to be aorund 1030mb. Even though High Pressure is expected, a weather front is embedded within the High Pressure. The heaviest of the rain associated with it is forecast for Northern parts of England and Scotland with only some patchy rain is expected for Glastonbury. At this moment, timings are changing from run to run as is the extent to which it will push south. Currently with the best of bright or sunny weather in the morning, with more in the way of cloud later in the day together with any patchy precipitation for Glastonbury.
    Temps are expected to be around 18-20c.

    Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175605] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175609] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175629]

    Afternoon Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175666] [attachment=175673:ECM 23b 96.gif] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175662]

    [b]Friday 28 June[/b]
    Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for High Pressure to still be close by, with pressure around 1025-1030mb, wind between a W to NW direction. The general theme in the forecast for Friday, is slowly getting better after perhaps a damp start, depending how quickly "Thursdays" front passes through. Into the afternoon it looks dry or mostly dry with increasing brightness after a cloudy start. Temps could reach 20-21c into the afternoon, perhaps a bit higher if the brightness turns into late afternoon sunny spells.

    Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175604] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175608] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175627]

    (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175665] [attachment=175672:ECM 23b 120.gif] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175661]
    [b]Weekend [/b]
    Again a little bit of uncertainty over the weekend, the chances of low pressure making it rather unsettled are reducing run by run, GFS is the least keen to introduce the highest pressure with pressure around 1020-1025mb, with UKMO ridging High Pressure closer to the UK, with ECM having HP centred over the UK on Sunday (1030mb), So GFS is the most likely to be slightly unsettled, ECM the most settled, and a very decent weekend in prospect.

    Although there may be the odd weather front again with NW winds, it is looking mostly dry over the weekend with decent amounts of sunshine, GFS has temps of 21c on Saturday, and perhaps even 23-24c on Sunday.

    Morning Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175603] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175607] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175624]

    Afternoon Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175664] [attachment=175671:ECM 23b 144.gif] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175660]

    Morning Runs for Sunday (L-R, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
    [attachment=175686:ECM 23a 168.gif] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175623] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175652]

    Afternoon Runs for Sunday (L-R, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
    [attachment=175670:ECM 23b 168.gif] [attachment=175687:GFS 23 12 5.JPG] [attachment=175678:GEFS 23b 2.png]
    [b]Overall [/b]
    The total rainfall charts are very consistent with the lack of rainfall, both runs go for around 5-6mm of rainfall in the next 6 days. Equally the ensembles also support a very dry festival.
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175654] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175667] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175650] [attachment=175680:GEFS 23b 4.png]
    The ensembles continue to go a pressure rise, however the pressure fall late next week is quicker than before, but generally stabilising above 1020mb.
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175651] [attachment=175681:GEFS 23b 3.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building steadily next week to around 1030mb, however GFS then reduces the pressure a bit before the weekend , before slowly rebuilding by Sunday, Both ECM and UKMO keep the pressure high across the uK, meaning slightly more settled conditions.
    Mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 5-6mm, not entirely sunny, with quite a lot of cloud on Thursday especially and to an extent Friday but bright at least on most other days. Temps looking quite decent as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.

    [b]Ratings :- [/b]
    Yesterday in brackets
    Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking small including over the weekend.
    Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Despite a bit of rain this weekend, things looking pretty good.
    Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (6.5/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.

    [b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
    Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
  22. J10
    Since the last full blog on Wednesday, it has come to my attention that this blog or extracts from it have made the national press.

    [url="http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2013/jun/13/glastonbury-2013-weather-forecast"]http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2013/jun/13/glastonbury-2013-weather-forecast[/url]

    Don't know whether to take the nerd comment as a compliment, but fame at last, and a bit pressure in getting the forecast right.

    Again we start off with the [b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][based on 12Hz 14th June run]

    I'll bring the days forward to be consistent with the op runs of Wednesday,

    Charts shown in order (192 Sat 22nd June, 312 Tue 25 June, 336 Wed 26 June, 384 Fri 28 June)

    The trend is for High Pressure to build from the Azores across the UK over the next few weeks,which has been the theme for a number of days.
    [attachment=174301:GFS 14 1.JPG] [attachment=174300:GFS 14 2.JPG] [attachment=174299:GFS 14 3.JPG] [attachment=174298:GFS 14 4.JPG]

    If this run is right the festival itself looks mostly settled with bright or sunnier than average, rainfall would be below average. Most would be happy with this. The remains uncertainty between the models, as an example the GFS 06Hz run had High Pressure more dominant by next weekend, reducing the risk of Low Pressure shown in the first image above for Next Saturday. I would suspect that the Pressure is below the ensembles average for Next Saturday, but above the ensembles average thereafter.

    In the last blog update, I mentioned the potential of the festival itself being dry, but the changeable weather beforehand making the camp-site susceptible to mud due to rain over the next 12 days. The next charts is the GFS total rainfall predictor over the next 6 days.

    [attachment=174302:Rmgfs144sum 14.gif]

    This suggests about an inch of rain over the next 6 days, and by looking at the daily progression not shown by charts, it suggests the heaviest of the rain, on the feature Monday into Tuesday. This would considerably wet the ground, but there is still time for the ground to dry, providing the weather remains dry until the festival.
    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 06Hz 14th June run]

    [attachment=174306:GEFS 14 06 1.png] [attachment=174305:GEFS 14 06 2.png]

    [attachment=174308:GEFS 14 1.png] [attachment=174307:GEFS 14 2.png]

    These ensembles show a steady increase in pressure from the South West along with a reduction in rainfall possibility, but the key word here is slow.

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 06Hz 14th June run]

    [attachment=174320:GEFS 14 12 4.png] [attachment=174321:GEFS 14 12 3.png] [attachment=174322:GEFS 14 12 2.png] [attachment=174323:GEFS 14 12 1.png]

    These ensembles confirm the op run was indeed lower than the average in terms of pressure next Saturday, although there is a spike in rainfall around here, and then above the average thereafter. As per the 06Hz run, there is a slow rise in pressure before the start of the festival.

    [b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 13th June]

    [attachment=174303:610day.03 13 2.gif] [attachment=174304:814day.03 13 2.gif]

    [b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 14th June]

    [attachment=174325:610day.03 14 1.gif] [attachment=174324:814day.03 14 2.gif]

    The upper charts continue to show a trough over the UK, the 8-14 finally showing signs of this weakening over the UK.

    [b]ECM[/b] [based on 12Hz 12th June run]

    This shows unsettled weather this weekend, remaining rather changeable thereafter, with low pressure to the North West for the following weekend very similar to that portrayed in the GFS 192 above), pressure still is building slowly from the South West, but has less success in having an influence over the UK compared to the GFS.

    Charts shown in order (120, Wed 19 June, 192 Sat 22 June, 240 Mon 24 June)
    [note these are now in a better format, but makes them easier to download if required]
    [attachment=174309:ECM 14 120.JPG] [attachment=174311:ECM 14 192.JPG] [attachment=174315:ECM 14 240.JPG]

    [b]Summary [/b]
    The charts are still a bit contradictory which is understandable this far out from the festival, there are tentative signs of things settling down once again, but there remains a period of unsettled weather to get through first. The big question is when things start to settle down, the GFS today has been pretty positive bridging the High Pressure in before the festival, the ECM tonight is a bit of a fly in the ointment, keeping low pressure close to the UK a few days before, I wouldn't have thought the end of the ECM run would be particularly wet, but they are not dry either.

    [b]Starting the ratings :- [/b]

    Festival Dryness (0=washout, 10 = dry) 6/10, it would have been higher if ECM was better
    Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4/10, I am still concerned about rainfall before the festival.
    Heatwave Rating (0= freezing, 10 = heatwave) 5/10, My guess is winds from the West,

    [b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]

    Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself probably drier than average,but pre festival rain could make ground underfoot wet and cause some mud on site, but probably without actually mud bath conditions.
  23. J10
    [b]Forecast Number 3 - Issued 17th May[/b]

    This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.

    [b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171377] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171378]
    June shows higher pressure to the South West of the UK, with pressure over the UK close to average. July maintains the theme of higher than average pressure of top of the UK. Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.

    [b]Temps[/b]

    Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171380] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171379]

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171381] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171382]

    Very similar to last week's forecasts, June shows below average rainfall area for the South West, but above average for the Midlands, Glastonbury is just in the below average rainfall areas. A similar pattern for July but the below average range is further north, and Glastonbury is on the edge of the 80-100% rainfall areas.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially July) and be drier than average more especially July. I think we would all be happy with this.

    [b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]

    These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.

    Unsurprisingly these tend to tie up with the CFS monthly forecast above,
    [font=arial]General thoughts for June, High pressure quite often close to the UK, with big positive anomaly[/font]to west of the UK on several runs, temps just above normal, with Northern UK consistently a bit warmer relative to average, precipitation below average generally, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.

    [font=arial]General thoughts for July, Pressure higher than average over the UK on most runs, more especially for Northern UK, temps about 2-3c above normal, , precipitation below average generally, well below average to far SW, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.[/font]

    [font=arial]Perhaps this indicate generally quite decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.[/font]

    [b]Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)[/b]
    [b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
    Date........... Runup to Festival .......................Start / During Festival
    11/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................Slightly less unsettled from SW
    12/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.................... HP from SW, in a bit, with West/NW winds
    13/05/2013 Trough over UK ..........................Trough weakens with general LP over UK
    14/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................HP to SW A little unsettled west winds
    15/05/2013 Trough slowly weakening out...... W flow then HP from SW towards w'kend
    16/05/2013 Low Pressure before festival.......Rather unsettled as HP stays to SW Light

    [b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]

    Date.......... Temps.............................. Rainfall
    11/05/2013 Light Orange................... Wet in run-up, showery/wet across festival
    12/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Wet in runup, heaviest rain to NW, but chance heavy rain Sat
    13/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Showery/rain in build up and over festival
    14/05/2013 Yellow to Orange..............Mix of rain and drier spells
    15/05/2013 Yellow/Orange..................Rain most days, not massively heavy
    16/05/2013 Orange............................ Showery,wet on 1/ 2 days

    Again these daily forecasts have been less favourable than the monthly ones.

    [b]Overall Summary[/b]
    At this stage, no definite conclusion, but this far out that is no surprise, for those wanting a dry festival, I would certainly hope the monthly forecast are more accurate thean the daily ones.
  24. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Alps Conditions [/b][/font][/size]

    There was decent fresh snow over medium to higher slopes at the start of the past week, but much milder temps has brought rain to all but the very highest slopes, making snow conditions not fantastic, despite the abundance of snow still at some higher slopes.
    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full[/url]

    Looking very mild next week, so it really is a must to head for the very highest slopes.

    [b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    Low Pressure over the Alps at the moment, with a coolish Westerly flow, with low pressure also over the Atlantic and high pressure over the Azores and over Northern Africa. Over the weekend, the low pressure over the Atlantic will edge east with a mild SW flow setting up for NW Europe in conjunction with high pressure building over Europe to the East.
    [attachment=168215:12 Apr Current.JPG] [attachment=168214:14 Apr.JPG]

    A mild SW flow is expected to persist until midweek with 850HPA reaching 10c at times over the Alps from a Spanish plume. Thereafter High Pressure is likely over the Alps but with mild air in situ more especially for SW parts of the Alps.

    [attachment=168213:15 Apr.JPG] [attachment=168212:19 Apr.JPG]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Alps Detail[/b][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Sat 13 Apr[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Some overnight precipitation tending to clear quite quickly, so that by morning mostly dry over the Alps. A few patchy showers developing for the first part of the afternoon, but generally well scattered and not that heavy.
    A north South split in the temperatures, Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1700m-2100m (N to S), French Alps 2200-2400m (NW to SE), Switzerland 2000-2300m (NW to S), Italian Alps 2100m-2300m, Austria 1700m-2100m (NE to SW)[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=168208:13 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]

    [b][size=4][font=arial]Sun 14 Apr[/font][/size][/b]
    [size=4][font=arial]A dry day seems likely over the Alps with decent sunny spells for skiing in for most, given the milder temps, some thaw is likely. It really is starting to warm up from the west with Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 2000m-3500m, French Alps 3000-3500m, Switzerland 2500-3500m, Italian Alps 2000m-3500m, Austria 1600m-3000m (All East to West)[/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=168207:14 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
    [b][size=4][font=arial]Mon 15 Apr [/font][/size][/b]
    [size=4][font=arial]Another dry day seems likely over the Alps with decent sunny spells for skiing in for most, given the temps a rapid thaw is likely. The milder weather now covers the whole of the Alps. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 3000m-3200m, French Alps 3200-3400m, Switzerland 3200-3400m, Italian Alps 3200m-3600m, Austria 2400m-3200m (All East to West)[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=168206:15 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]

    [b][size=4][font=arial]Tue 16 Apr[/font][/size][/b]
    [size=4][font=arial]Mostly dry to start, a few showers developing in the morning, these tending to become far more extensive during the afternoon, heavy and moderate in places, largely falling as rain except on the highest slopes. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany, French Alps, Switzerland, the Italian Alps, Western Austria 3000m-3100m, E Austria 2400m-3000m[/font][/size]

    [attachment=168205:16 Apr Alps.JPG]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Wed 17 Apr[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Mostly dry in the morning, however showers tending to develop into the afternoon, heavy and moderate in places, largely falling as rain except on the highest slopes. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 2600m-2700m, French Alps 2900-3100m, Switzerland 2700-3100m, Italian [/font][/size][size=4][font=arial]Alps 3100m-3300m, Austria 2700m-3100m (All North to South)[/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]More general precipitation into the evening for Austria.[/font][/size]

    [attachment=168204:17 Apr Alps.JPG]
    [size=4][font=arial][b]18 April and 19 April[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]PA this stage, looking mostly dry after any initial precipitation moves away, perhaps tuning less mild from the NE for a time, but staying generally on the mild/warm side. [/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial][attachment=168203:18 Apr Alps.JPG]
    [attachment=168202:19 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
    [size=4][font=arial]Very much looking as if Spring is on the way, a major thaw seems likely this week, with any lowers resorts still open taking a pounding. However it has been a great season and all things must eventually come to an end. [/font][/size]Next week will see the final skiing forecast blog of the season.
  25. J10
    [b]Current Situation[/b]

    After a very mild start to the season, there has been a great week of weather this week, with heavy snow over parts of the Alps, as ever Altitude helps but snow has fallen to resort level quite widely. The Ski Club of GB website has more details as ever on the following links.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=8415"]http://www.skiclub.c...px?storyID=8415[/url]
    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ew/default.aspx[/url]

    The current position sees a surface High Pressure over Greenland (1040mb), the remnants of yesterdays storm over Scotland is now centered over Norway giving a cold Polar Maritime NW flow over the UK, Other parts of NW Europe have a cool NW Flow, which also fringes the Alps . There is High Pressure covering the Southern Atlantic and also for Southern Europe.
    [attachment=124576:Current 9th Dec.JPG]

    [b]Synoptics[/b]

    Tomorrow sees a very quick slackening of the High Pressure over Greenland with pressure reducing to 1016mb. For the North Atlantic through to Norway, there is low pressure but with a flat pattern, with Westerly winds running all the way from America through to NE mainland Europe. High Pressure remains over the South Atlantic, but with slack High pressure over much of Southern Europe extending as far north as the Alps.

    Cool for the UK, briefly turning milder over the UK as rain and a mild sector pushes in later, Very Cold over Northern Scandinavia, generally cool or cold over the rest of Scandinavia, NE Europe, quite mild over the Alps and the remainder of Europe.

    [attachment=124563:9 Dec +24.JPG]

    Sunday sees Low Pressure over much of Northern Atlantic through to Northern Europe, with a mainly flat zonal pattern with westerly winds. High Pressure remains in control over Southern Europe. Milder for the UK, quite cool for much of Northern mainland Europe, but again mild for much of Southern Europe including the Alps, the coldest weather reserved for Northern Scandinavia.

    [attachment=124571:9 Dec +48.JPG]

    Monday sees The basic theme of low pressure to the north and Higher Pressure to the South remains, however the Azores High to the South West is further south, as a very cold North West wind pushes south off the coast of North America, further west there is a SW wind over the UK and much of Europe.

    Very cold over Northern Scandinavia, but with SW winds for the rest of Europe, generally mild, but cool for Southern Scandinavia and for the UK and the far NW of Europe for a time.

    [attachment=124565:9 Dec +72.JPG]

    Tuesday sees Low Pressure covering the area from North America to Scandinavia, with the Azores High is now tilted in a NW/SE direction as this could mean NW winds bring Polar Maritime winds over much of the Atlantic. There is deep area of low pressure centered over Scotland, and this could give very unsettled weather with very strong winds for UK, although exact detail and timings are uncertain at this moment. Remaining more settled the further south and east you go into mainland Europe.

    Most of Europe including the Alps is mild or quite mild, cool winds for the UK and much of Scandinavia, cold for Northern Scandinavia.

    [attachment=124573:9 Dec +96.JPG]

    The Synoptic pattern for Wednesday very similar, with low pressure dominating conditions over much of the Atlantic and Northern Europe, the low pressure over the UK on Tuesday moves slightly North East off the coast of Norway but still looking like strong winds over the UK.

    Cool over the UK and NW Europe strengthening over the Alps, with a polar Maritime airflow, cool for Scandinavia with a Returning Polar Maritime airflow remaining mild for Southern Europe.

    [attachment=124567:9 Dec +120.JPG]

    A lot of uncertainty after this, but at this stage, you cannot really go against the theme of low pressure to the south and Higher Pressure over Southern areas, perhaps moving further east into western mainland Europe. Possibly cool over much of Northern Europe, at this stage it looks as if the Alps will be on the milder side of the weather.

    [attachment=124575:9 Dec +144.JPG]
    [attachment=124569:9 Dec +168.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]0c Isotherm Daytime Max Summary[/b]
    [b]Sat[/b] 1200-1600m North, 1800-2000m elsewhere.
    [b]Sun [/b]1400-1800m generally 2000-2200m SE
    [b]Mon[/b] 1400-1800m generally, 2000-2300m E Austria
    [b]Tue[/b] 1600-1800m S Austria and N Italy over 2000m elsewhere.
    [b]Wed[/b] 1400m NW rising incrementally to 1800m SE Austria
    [b]Thur[/b] 600-800 North and West rising to 1400m SE Austria
    [b]Fri [/b]900m E Austria, up to 2200m W Alps

    [b]0c Isotherm Night Summary[/b]
    Generally quite mid overnight over the Alps with Freezing Levels around 1200-1500m however much colder on Sunday Night down to 600m in places.

    [b]850Hpa Summary [/b]

    [b]Sat[/b] Lowest at -4c in Central Germany rising steadily to +4 in Southern Switzerland.
    [b]Sun [/b]0 to +4c generally, warmest over France and Switzerland
    [b]Mon[/b] -2 to 0c over France, up to +3 or +4c over Austria.
    [b]Tue[/b] 0c over Austria, but +4 o +5 in a swathe form France , Northern Switzerland through to Germany
    [b]Wed[/b] +1 to +3c generally, turning colder from the west alter.
    [b]Thur[/b]-4 or -5 for much of Germany, France and Austria, and N Switzerland, warmer over S Switzerland, and especially Italy up to +1/+3c
    [b]Fri [/b]+3 or +4 in the west, -2 to -3c over Austria

    [b]Saturday 10th December -[/b] Heavy Precipitation to start over the Northern Alps in the early morning, for Southern Germany and the far north of Switzerland and Austria. This continuing during the day but edging south into Northern Switzerland and Austria, and the far south of Germany, Snow Levels around 1000m on the north of the front, around 1600m in the south of the front. Mostly dry elsewhere over the Alps, and any precipitation dying out during the afternoon and evening.
    [attachment=124562:9 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sunday 11th December -[/b] Mostly dry and settled over the Alps with some decent sunny spells. Pressure around 1016mb (W) to 1023mnb (E) with light SW winds.

    [attachment=124570:9 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Monday 12th December - [/b]Dry to start but showers developing over Italy and perhaps southern parts of Austria later. A cold front will edge into western areas of the Alps especially France during the morning and spreading east over the afternoon into Switzerland then Austria Snow levels around 1200-1500m, perhaps up to 15-20cm of snow in places. Any precipitation moving away to the East quickly during the evening.

    [attachment=124564:9 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tuesday 13th December - [/b]Mostly dry over Southern and Eastern parts of the Alps, light precipitation edging into North Western areas, and this continuing through the day before dying out during the late afternoon and early evening, Snow above around 2000m.

    [attachment=124572:9 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday 14th December -[/b] Another day of a NW SE split, remaining mostly dry and bright in the SE, Precipitation again edging into the NW into the afternoon, with some heavy bursts possible especially during the afternoon, Snow above aroudn 1400m .

    [attachment=124566:9 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thursday 15th December and Friday 16th December -[/b] A this stage looking colder for Thursday with periods of snow down to around 800m . Friday looks milder with rain spreading from the west.
    [attachment=124574:9 Dec +144 Alps.JPG]
    [attachment=124568:9 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    In a week with a very defined theme of unsettled weather over Northern Europe, very difficult to pin down the exact conditions over the Alps especially day to day. Temps will fluctuate widely especially for northern areas. the further North and West you go there will be more precipitation and it looks as if snow coverage will be increased over the higher slopes, but decrease on lower slopes as much of the precipitation will fall as rain and there will be a thawing of lying snow, due to raised temps.

    For people going on holiday this week it should be quite decent with sunny spells especially towards the south and east and not terribly cold during the day.
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