J10
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Posts posted by J10
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Overview
Slightly more of a consensus today, the threat of heavy rain during the festival has reduced on recent runs, and some warm to hot conditions expected Next Week, perhaps into Saturday.
Some rain is expected tomorrow and also a thunderstorm warning remains in place for Tuesday. If we are unlucky with these then underfoot conditions could be ruined before the festival starts. However if this misses Glastonbury then conditions probably not too bad Wednesday into Friday.
The biggest risk of rain IMO is Friday evening into Saturday, as the High Pressure edges away.
So the festival is looking a very warm to hot one, and possibly with decent weather generally. Hopefully the ground conditions remains just as good.
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/events/Glastonbury/glastosky3tent.png -
Overview
Slightly more of a consensus today, the threat of heavy rain during the festival has reduced on recent runs, and some warm to hot conditions expected Next Week, perhaps into Saturday.
Some rain is expected tomorrow and also a thunderstorm warning remains in place for Tuesday. If we are unlucky with these then underfoot conditions could be ruined before the festival starts. However if this misses Glastonbury then conditions probably not too bad Wednesday into Friday.
The biggest risk of rain IMO is Friday evening into Saturday, as the High Pressure edges away.
So the festival is looking a very warm to hot one, and possibly with decent weather generally. Hopefully the ground conditions remains just as good.
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Overview
Slightly more of a consensus today, the threat of heavy rain during the festival has reduced on recent runs, and some warm to hot conditions expected Next Week, perhaps into Saturday.
Some rain is expected tomorrow and also a thunderstorm warning remains in place for Tuesday. If we are unlucky with these then underfoot conditions could be ruined before the festival starts. However if this misses Glastonbury then conditions probably not too bad Wednesday into Friday.
The biggest risk of rain IMO is Friday evening into Saturday, as the High Pressure edges away.
So the festival is looking a very warm to hot one, and possibly with decent weather generally. Hopefully the ground conditions remains just as good.
GFS Ensembles
Some patchy rain tomorrow (23rd), with patchy to moderate rain predicted from Monday to Wednesday on different ensembles. For the festival itself, the operational run looks almost bone dry. But some ensembles have some rain at times, generally looking drier than suggested yesterday.
Turning much warmer into next week, with most ensembles going for some very high 850HPa around 20c.
Pressure around 1020mb at the start of the festival and dropping quickly towards 1010mb by Friday into Saturday with very good ensemble agreement before rising into Sunday.
Synoptic Summary / Overview
High Pressure (1035mb) centred to the West of the UK next Wednesday, pressure remaining above 1020mb over the UK with Low Pressure remaining to the South / West. Easterly winds feeding in a very warm air mass (850HPa) above 15c. High Pressure again for the Thursday with 850HPAs steadily rising. Warmer again on the Friday, with 850HPAs possibly touching 25c, High Pressure edging way to the North east giving an increased risk of some showers.
For the weekend more general low pressure over the UK, and turning much cooler with a NW wind on Sunday.
No consensus for the Sunday, but perhaps turning more generally unsettled.
Pressure Charts and Run Summaries (GFS and ECM from 12Hz Saturday 22 June)
Wednesday Synoptic Charts
ECM Wednesday 26 June - High Pressure over the UK, with Pressure of 1026mb and Easterly winds for South Western UK, 850HPAs 15c midday and rising.
ECM Thursday 27 June - High Pressure over the UK, with Pressure of 1024mb and winds veering South Easterly for South Western UK, 850HPAs 20c midday and rising.
GFS Wednesday 26 June – After some potential patchy rain in the morning, turning drier for the afternoon and evening. Winds Southeasterly and Temperatures 25c based on 12Hz (06Hz has more in the way of heavy rainfall during the evening.)
GFS Thursday 27 June – Under weak High Pressure, The 12Hz run goes for a dry day over Glastonbury, with Winds East to South Easterly with temperatures reaching 22-24c.
Friday Synoptic Charts
ECM Friday 28 June - High Pressure edging away to the North East and while this opens the door to some showery potential, with Pressure of 1018mb and South Easterly winds for South Western UK, 850HPAs touching 25c midday.
GFS Friday 28 June - Pressure for South Western parts of the UK is set to drop on Friday, however looking mostly dry. Staying warm with expected max Temperatures around 27-28c.
Sunday Synoptic Charts
ECM Weekend - 29/30 June Low pressure edging in from the North West on the Saturday, but remining very warm, winds veering NW on Sunday with a ridge of high pressure to the South West.
GFS Weekend - 29/30 June Looking Hot and dry on the Saturday despite low pressure below 1010mb, Temperatures 30c, Sunday looks much cooler but remaining dry.
Summary
Some rain seems likely before the festival, Wednesday to Friday look mostly dry on both GFS and ECM, and warm to hot with a plume from the South.
There remains a risk of some rain Friday night into Saturday, but possibly drier and cooler by the Sunday.
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Battle of the Models for Glastonbury, After a very warm start, will it turn wet for the weekend?
Beyond this slightly clickbaity headline, GFS says a wet weekend after a very warm start, ECM goes for a drier weekend after a hot start.
Read the blog for more information
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/events/Glastonbury/glast1.jpg -
Battle of the Models for Glastonbury, After a very warm start, will it turn wet for the weekend?
Beyond this slightly clickbaity headline, GFS says a wet weekend after a very warm start, ECM goes for a drier weekend after a hot start.
Read the blog for more information -
Overview
Looking at the GFS 12Hz and the positivity of yesterday was quickly brought down with a bump. Moving away from the hot conditions expected to open the gates next week and with some heavy rain for next weekend. #GFSMudbathHowever the ECM run looks completely different with High Pressure for most of the festival and some very hot conditions for Wednesday through Friday, with 850HPA temperatures well above 20c, so temperatures of 30c not out of the question. The risk of some rain on the Friday and less hot over the weekend.
Which is more likely, knowing the British Summer GFS, but is it being over progressive in removing High Pressure something it is prone to do.
GFS Ensembles
Dry this weekend with some patchy rain on Sunday (23rd), with further moderate to heavy rain predicted from Monday to Wednesday on different ensembles. For the end of next week, some patchy rain is predicted on some ensembles.
Turning much warmer into next week, with most ensembles going for some very high 850HPa above 15c, which is less hot than predicted yesterday.
Pressure around 1020mb at the start of the festival and dropping quickly towards 1010mb by Friday with very good ensemble agreement.
Synoptic Summary / Overview
High Pressure again expected for centred over Northern parts of the UK for next Wednesday but now with the High Pressure to be centred to the West of Northern UK. Southern areas to have slightly lower pressure around 1020mb with this allowing weak fronts to edge North during the day. the Low pressure is likely to be. By Thursday and Friday, pressure has dropped further with no organised low pressure but with a very humid and unstable air mass, there is the risk of some showers.
No consensus for the Sunday, but perhaps turning more generally unsettled.
Pressure Charts and Run Summaries (GFS and ECM from 12Hz Friday 21 June)
Wednesday Synoptic Charts
ECM Wednesday 26 June - ECM is far more bullish about keeping High Pressure over the UK for next week, with the Wednesday run looking very similar to yesterday’s run and with higher 850HPAs.
ECM Thursday 27 June - Thursday looks hot and dry with 850HPAs above 20c,
GFS Wednesday 26 June - Looking dry for most of the day however some showery rain is set to edge North for the evening and overnight. Winds Easterly and Temperatures 25c based on 12Hz, with the hottest part of the plume staying further east today (over 30c in London expected).
GFS Thursday 27 June - While some showers are possible, the 12Hz run goes for a dry day over Glastonbury, winds light and variable with temperatures reaching 21-23c, which is much cooler than all other operational runs today.
Friday Synoptic Charts
ECM Friday 28 June - High Pressure remains close by to the North East and while this opens the door to some showery potential, with 850HPAs rising further it could be very hot.
GFS Friday 28 June - Pressure over the UK is set to drop on Friday, with the risk of some showers edging up from the South at times. Staying warm with expected max Temperatures around 23-24c.
Sunday Synoptic Charts
ECM Weekend - 29/30 June With low pressure developing over Southern parts of the UK over the weekend, looking wet with some long periods of rain, temperatures low 290c Saturday, and mid teens Sunday. The good news is this is very uncertain, as an example the 06Hz run only showed patchy rain and mostly dry.
GFS Weekend - 29/30 June Turning less hot over the weekend, but still with High Pressure trying to ridge in.
Summary
Some rain seems likely before the festival,Wednesday to Friday look mostly dry on both GFS and ECM, albeit ECM looks a lot warmer.
The big difference is over the weekend - with GFS far more unsettled and ECM much drier.
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Summer may arrive Just in time for Glastonbury after heavy rain early next week
Some Hot weather is possible for Glastonbury for the middle of next week, perhaps 29c on Wednesday if GFS is to be believed. However rain is expected early next week, which might cause mud and perhaps unsettled over the weekend. But still more promising than it looked a day or so ago.
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/events/Glastonbury/OtherStagefriday2004.jpg -
Summer may arrive Just in time for Glastonbury after heavy rain early next week
Some Hot weather is possible for Glastonbury for the middle of next week, perhaps 29c on Wednesday if GFS is to be believed. However rain is expected early next week, which might cause mud and perhaps unsettled over the weekend. But still more promising than it looked a day or so ago. -
11 minutes ago, DevonStu said:
Hmmmm, bow locks maybe????
With the plume of hot air edging Northwardsinto France, Very high 20s are certainly possible, if the Easterly winds beings that over to Western UK.
But just to show 3 options, here are todays GFS runs for 3-6pm next Wednesday in terms of Max temperature.
Rain is still likely at times Sunday and for the start of Next Week.
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That rare thing is happening, the weather is looking to improve for Glastonbury, with some very warm and mostly dry weather for late next week.
There is the big caveat that wet weather beforehand - notably Sunday to Tuesday which might give mud issues. However in any case looking a fair bit better than a few days ago.
GFS Ensembles
Still looking mostly dry until the 23rd June, However many ensembles going for moderate rainfall for Sunday to Tuesday Next Week, but drier thereafter.
Turning much warmer into next week, with most ensembles going for some very high 850HPa above 20c, with better agreement from the ensembles.
Pressure around 1020mb at the start of the festival and only dropping slightly into next weekend, but no deep areas of Low Pressure.
Synoptic Summary / Overview
There seems to be good agreement now on there being High Pressure centred over Northern parts of the UK for next Wednesday, there remains uncertainty about where the Low pressure is likely to be. Looking at today’s runs, the low pressure seems to be further away to the South West of the UK for Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps allowing conditions to remain mostly dry.
By Friday the Low Pressure is set to be located to the West of the UK, winds are likely to veer to a South Westerly direction with fronts set to edge towards the UK on Friday and especially Saturday. Big differences remain for the Sunday.
Wednesday and Thursday looking a little drier than initially though, with more in the way of rain or showers over the weekend.
GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Thursday 20 June] – but also mentioning other runs / forecasts
Wednesday 26 June – After early showers edge away to the west, looking mostly dry for the afternoon and evening. Winds Easterly and Temperatures 28-29c based on 12Hz, which the plume be further west on this run, than other which suggest closer to 24c.
Thursday 27 June – With High pressure trying to hang on over Southern parts of the UK, staying mostly dry, and with a Easterly wind remaining very warm with temperatures perhaps reaching 28c again.
Friday 28 June – An area of Low Pressure is set to be located to the West of the UK, with Westerly to South Westerly winds over Southern UK, there is a risk of fronts edging in from the South West, but any rain looking mostly patchy . Temperatures looking a lot cooler for Western areas in the low 20c.
Weekend – Weak Low Pressure over the UK with the chance of some showers, more especially on Sunday. Temperatures currently projected to be low 20c on Saturday, and high teens on Sunday.
ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Thursday 20 June]
High Pressure to the North West of the UK on the Wednesday, with weaker High Pressure over Southern areas, the plume edging over much of the UK, so some very warm weather likely.
Low Pressure to the West of the UK on Friday similar to GFS.
Low Pressure forecast to be the over the UK for Sunday.
NOAA [Synoptic pattern for 26 June - 30 June)
to follow
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Still Looking rather mixed, no washout, with rain (and mud) is likely at times
The weekend outlook still uncertain.
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/rain/rainbow-fp.jpg -
Still Looking rather mixed, no washout, with rain (and mud) is likely at times
The weekend outlook still uncertain. -
GFS Ensembles [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June]
Still looking mostly dry until the 23rd June, However many ensembles going for moderate rainfall before and during the festival period.
Turning milder into next week, with some ensembles going for some very high 850HPa above 20c, although the operational runs moving away from this.
Pressure around 1020mb at the start of the festival and dropping slighly into next weekend, but no deep areas of Low Pressure.
Synoptic Summary / Overview
There seems to be good agreement now on there being High Pressure centred over Northern parts of the UK for next Wednesday, with lesser agreement on how much if there is low pressure over southern areas or whether tis stays away to the South / West. There is also a plume likely over NW Mainland Europe (20c+ 850HPa), which may or may not edge Westwards over the UK.
Thereafter it seems likely that there will be weak areas of low pressure by Friday, with further uncertainty over any “proper” low pressure for the weekend. So some rainfall likely over most days of the festival, with no complete washout.
GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June] – but also mentioning other runs / forecasts
Wednesday 26 June – Dry to start but showers developing later in the day from the South, these might be heavy. Winds Easterly and Temperatures 22-23c (if the plume edges further West, 25-26c would be more likely)
Thursday 27 June – With weak low pressure likely for Southern areas, showers may develop widely, temperatures likely to be cooler than Wednesday at around 20-21c
Friday 28 June – An area of Low Pressure is set to be located to the West of the UK, with Westerly winds over Southern UK. Further showers are possible but currently looking lighter than Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures around 20-21c
Weekend – the 12Hz keeps the Low Pressure to the West of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure developing, keeping things mostly dry with temperatures of around 20c, However other runs notably the 06Hz run has Low Pressure over the UK and much more unsettled and wetter.
ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Wednesday 19 June]
High Pressure to the North West of the UK on the Wednesday, with weaker High Pressure over Southern areas, the plume staying more the east of the UK.
Slowly turning more unsettled with Low Pressure over the Uk on the Friday, this weakening over the weekend.
NOAA [Synoptic pattern for 25 June - 29 June)
Higher pressure around the UK, with low pressure to the South West
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Mixed weather currently most likely for Glastonbury. Although a lot of mixed signals at the moment.
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/rain/showerapr2.jpg -
Mixed weather currently most likely for Glastonbury. Although a lot of mixed signals at the moment.
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GFS Ensembles [06Hz - Tuesday 18 June]
Looking mostly dry until the 23rd June, However many ensembles going for moderate rainfall before and during the festival period.
Turning milder into next week, with some ensembles gonig for some very high 850HPa above 20c.
Pressure dropping slighly into next week, but no deep areas of Low Pressure.
GFS Ensembles [12Hz - Tuesday 18 June]
Drier than the 06Hz ensembles, and moving away from the plume scenario that some earlier runs suggested.
GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Tuesday 18 June]
In the run up to the festival next week, there is expected to be High Pressure centred to the North of Scotland (1032mb), with Easterly winds for southern parts of the UK.Wednesday is set to see Low Pressure edging in from the South / South West bring the risk of some showery rain which may be heavy. Winds should be Easterly bringing some very warm 850Hpa possibly as high as 20c. Temperatures low to mid 20s.
Thursday sees Low Pressure to the South West of the UK but currently looking mostly dry over the UK with Easterly winds over Southern UK, temperatures likely in the low 20s.
Friday sees weak Low Pressure over the UK centred over Ireland, with some weak showers again possible over southern UK, Temperatures high teens / Low 20s.
The weekend looks rather unsettled with temperatures in the low 20s. At this stage, Saturday looks drier with more in the way of showers on Sunday.
ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Tuesday 18 June]
ECM seems a day ahead in the evolution with the chart for Tuesday next week very similar to the GFS Wednesday chart, it also hints at the potential warm 850HPa temps. But looking rather unsettled when the gates open.
Summary
Looking mostly unsettled over the Glastonbury festival with some precipitation likely, no washout but by no means perfect and with some rain at times before the festival starts some mud issues seem likely.
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Met Office
Saturday 22 June to Monday 1 July
Saturday should see a fair amount of settled and sunny weather as a ridge of high pressure builds across the south of the UK, with scattered showers becoming mostly confined to Scotland and Northern Ireland. High pressure will give way to another Atlantic low pressure through Sunday and into the following week bringing changeable weather with bands of rain crossing most areas at times, but more especially affecting northern and western parts. Towards the south and southeast it will most likely stay drier, and possibly become warm at times, but there is the risk of some thundery showers spreading in from the south. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather. Temperatures mostly near normal.
GFS Ensembles [06Hz - Monday 17 June]
Looking mostly dry over the next week, but some rain around the 23-25 June, just before the gates open.
Pressure around 1010mb-1020mb for the festival duration.
GFS Operational Run [12Hz - Monday 17 June]
Charts showing Wednesday, Friday and Sunday covering the festival period.
On Wednesday, GFS 12Hz shows High Pressure over the UK, with Max Temperatures of 24c, with heavy showers edging up from the South West.
On Thursday Pressure lowering from the South with an Easterly wind with Max Temperatures of 22c, however looking mostly dry for South Western areas of the UK.
By Friday, Low Pressure over the UK still on the warm side with temperatures around 23c, with the chance of some showers.
On Saturday, Low Pressure with North Westerly winds, temperatures 19c with the chance of some outbreaks of rain.
On Sunday, pressure building from the South West, and turning drier after early rain, temperatures around 17c.
ECM Operational Run [12Hz - Monday 17 June]
On the Wednesday, cool and unsettled with Low Pressure with 850HPa around 8c.
On the Thursday, the Low Pressure edges away to the east, with High Pressure edging in from the west, still cool with NW winds.
NOAA
The 6-10 day chart [23 -27 June] shows low pressure towards the South West of the UK.
The 8-14 day chart [25 - 1 July] shows High pressure to the west of the UK, neutral pressure for SE UK.
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Friday 21 June to Sunday 30 June
Showers are likely in the north on Friday, some heavy and thundery, whilst it should remain drier further south. A ridge of high pressure should then bring a good deal of fine and at times sunny weather next weekend, before showery rain arrives in the west later on Sunday. Low pressure is likely to bring more unsettled and perhaps cool weather to the northwest of the UK through the following week, as further bands of rain push in from the Atlantic. Towards the south and southeast it will most likely stay drier, and warm at times, but there is the risk of some thundery showers spreading in from the south. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 16 Jun 2019
GFS Ensembles
The ensembles not quite as good tonight, with more runs having some rain at times over the next 2 weeks, especially around the 23-25 June.
GFS Operational Run
Low Pressure with NW winds for both the Wednesday and the Friday, with a ridge of High Pressure on the Sunday.
ECM shows a ridge of High Pressure for the Wednesday.
NOAA
Probably the most positive aspects of tonight's runs, this looks suggest High Pressure in Control (24-30 June).
Overall
Normally by now you get an idea of the weather, but this year it seems 3 steps forward 2 back
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I was in Bordeaux for the Euros mid June 2016, the days I was there corresponded almost perfectly to the bad weather there.
http://www.meteociel.fr/climatologie/villes.php?code=7510&mois=6&annee=2016
As for here, June 2019 is the cloudiest since 2012.
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Thursday 20 June to Saturday 29 June
Low pressure likely to be dominant to the west or northwest, with frontal systems periodically affecting the UK. Windy conditions are likely at times, especially in the northwest. The changeable conditions are likely to bring bands of rain at times, these most frequently in the north and west. Brighter and showery periods are likely in-between. The south and southeast should have more in the way of drier and settled weather, but with the risk of thundery plumes being drawn northwards from the continent into southern parts of the UK at times. Temperatures will be mostly near normal, but warm at times in the east. Sometimes rather cool in the northwest. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sat 15 Jun 2019
GFS Ensembles
The ensembles now starting to look pretty dry over the next 2 couple of weeks, (again excluding the faulty GFS control run)
The GFS run again is on the unsettled side of the mean for the festival weekend, again with a general trend of dropping pressure around the festival.
GFS Operational Run
The 12Hz op run for a ridge of High Pressure when the gates open, but with lower pressure developing by Friday, with a ridge of higher pressure by the Sunday.
Looking at the precipitation charts, dry until the Friday with a few showers over the weekend, probably not that bad overall.
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Wednesday 19 June to Friday 28 June
The changeable and showery theme looks set to continue, with low pressure situated to the northwest of the UK, and high pressure to the south or southwest. Showers mainly focused in the north and west, with strong winds at times. It will be warmer than of late with some sunshine and drier interludes in between the showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the south and east. However, there is the risk of some heavy and thundery showers moving up from the south at times, particularly middle of next week and it my become very warm in the southeast for a time. As we head into the final week of June, there are signs that high pressure may dominate, bringing a greater chance of more settled and warm weather.
Saturday 29 June to Saturday 13 July
Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is likely at times in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, conditions will be similar, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, although the south and southeast will probably see the warmest and driest weather, with occasional thundery outbreaks. Temperatures will be near or slightly above the average for the time of year.
GFS Ensembles
Looking drier into next week and into the runup to the festival, More rain though is forecast over the period of the festival itself. Note the ongoing issue with the GFS run which is faulty.
The GFS run again is an outlier and much more unetled than the ensmble mean, there is a trend for Pressure to drop around the festival, but not by as much as the operational run.
GFS Operational Run
The 12Hz op run for a ridge of High Pressure when the gates open, but with lower pressure over the weekend initally with a SW wind for the Friday veering NW by Sunday.
Looking at the precipitation charts it would mean a fair amount of rain for the Glastonbury proably enough to cause mud problems.
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3 hours ago, DevonStu said:
Knew I shouldn't of bought those new wellies....
Certainly would have needed them at "Download" festival.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-48627574
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Similar to yesterday a wet overnight period but not as wet as yesterday, and after the last bit of rain cleared before 10. A dry day with some brighter spells / sunny intervals into the afternoon. Max Temp 16c
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Tuesday 18 June to Thursday 27 June
After an unsettled and cool first half of June, somewhat drier and more settled weather is likely to develop for many during the second half of the month. Although next week may still be rather changeable and showery, it will be warmer than of late with some sunshine and drier interludes. Southern areas may become very warm for a time, although with the chance of thundery rain spreading up from the south at times, perhaps affecting central parts, which will preclude any longer spells of dry weather. As we head into the final week of June, there are signs that high pressure may dominate, bringing a greater chance of more widely settled and warm weather.
Thursday 27 June to Thursday 11 July
Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather.
Updated at: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 13 Jun 2019
GFS Ensembles
After this weeks washout, a very similar theme to what was suggested yesterday, slowly turning drier with pressure generally building over the next week or so and into the runup to the festival, without any real stunning summer weather.
The ensembles look fairly dry with no massively wet weather incoming, note the operational run is not on the ensemble, suggesting a technical issue with GFS.
GFS Operational Run
The 12Hz op run goes for a rather unsettled start of the festival, perhaps this is a trend that after improving weather before the festival, it gets worse over the festival period itself, or perhaps just a blip.
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
In Late June how much can you add to the 850HPA temp, so if 25c 850HPA occurs as some models what would the likely temp be.
(Not saying it will happen exactly like this of course)