[North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards]

Radar keeps predicting a halt to the snow, but it has now got heavier. Could be fun taking a relative for a covid jab this morning. 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Staying wet, unfortunately 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Northern hemisphere view easterlys   right across the Atlantic

From the Kazakh Mongolian border to Cape Cod 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Winter '79 run. Somewhere would get buried, dependent where boundary set up.

Snow and Ruhr soot dropping on the north of England. Just like 79.

[Spain Weather]

Recall being delayed at Barajas in Feb around 10 years ago. Wet snow and limited de-icing kit. Good snow cover on surrounding hills then, but nothing like yesterday. 

[North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards]

Perfect winter's day. Hard, rime frost, bright sunny morning, heavy snow shower to give a covering. Sun and cloud over the snow giving a dramatic landscape over the Dales and Lakes. 

[North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards]

Goodness me. It is snowing here. White Christmas! Happy Christmas everyone. 

[North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards]

Snow over the fells of the Lakes and Howgills. Snow showers visible eastwards around Pen y Ghent. Sitting in between here. 

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

Just noticed the deep cold pool on ECM over western Kazakhstan. Where might that go? If anywhere. Any thoughts from those more expert than me? Not on GFS. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

Pleasant day, but what on earth happens next? 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Both those charts are completely different to what we have showing now and also both years had a very different set of background signals. Personally find pattern matching completely futile, the atmosphere is completely dynamic and never the same.

Of course. But I cannot see Greenland heights without remembering 78/9

[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

23 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

So the ECM isnt showing snowmageddon in 10 days time .

 

The attached chart is so very  familiar isnt it? Stalled low to our west driving mild southwesterlies towards the UK, pesky  scrussian block to the east in the wrong place , and worst of all Azores high ridging into  Iberia.  Oh I forgot to mention big chunk of PV  North East Canada/South Greenland.

Absolutely the very last thing you want a week before Christmas eh?

Except of course that the attached chart is for the 19th December 1962.

 

Not to mention 26 December 1978

[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

Thinking of an analogue to the GFS06z op today I wondered about December 1978 from memory. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

The invisible line isn't straight on ECMF op day 10, with UK on the western side. Another UK trough to follow in the week before Christmas? And then wait and see. Still not a flat profile. 

[North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards]

 Ingleborough today from Burnmoor

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

Compare and contrast as ideas at day 10.

GFS

And GEM

No idea which will be nearest. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

GFS 06z operational may be flat in its early stages and may be unreliable, but a pre Christmas high would be dry and chilly. Until 2010 good cold spells came after Christmas and often after high pressure, if my ageing memory is correct. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

T384 offering hope to those in despair. One option, but of many. 

[North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards]

Much wetter than expected overnight. A lot of water on the fell and becks very lively. Looking across to Ingleborough snow level looks around 400m. Snowy on the Dale's passes. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Tbh this isn't far off my expectations of a UK high middle to end of December

What do you think would happen next then? 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

All the recent varieties in later GFS operational runs at least share the presence of amplification somewhere. Let's hope that continues. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

Recent GFS runs in their outer reaches have shown Scandy high, Iceland wedge and Greenland high. And now nice south westerlies from an Iberian high. Plenty of choice, and uncertainty. 

[North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards]

My wife is sure that there were a few flakes of snow around when she was up in the night. Moon was bright but some cloud about. Can any local experts tell me if that was possible? 

[North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards]

Looks like it will be my first ever autumn without a frost. Just missed out 2 nights ago. Ironic when we had 2 frosts in mid May to destroy the prospects of an apple or plum harvest. Gloom gloom currently 

[Model output discussion - late November]

37 minutes ago, LRD said:

Too much pressure on the mid Atlantic ridge at 240h on the ECM 12z:

Immaterial worrying about it at this stage though as it likely won't look precisely like that. The Alaskan and Atlantic ridge are pretty close to linking up (and that would probably mean locked in cold) but it won't happen with that low pressure just to the west of Greenland about to steamroll the pattern

Given the unusual similarity between ECM and GFS ar t240 the GFS beyond t240 is more interesting than normal, and that low would head southeast.