Mr Sleet
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The NSDIC are now reporting that the Arctic ice minimum for 2008 has passed and is almost 0.5 sqkm up on 2007.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7619770.stm
Back in April I said that it was a foregone conclusion that the 2008 minimum would be higher than that in 2007. I was ridiculed in some quarters
by some who ( no names GW) who said that they expected all the ice to go. Observe the master and learn.
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It's not only very unlikely any collision will take place today and probably not for a few months. It's even more unlikely and if I am to be so bold laughably silly to think this experiment will bring about the end of the earth.
Watching News24, which is of mixed quality, I do find it very odd indeed that an expert who is a particle physicist can also claim to be Christian theologist as well - sorry but thats just as daft as the end of the world stories. It's like a captain of a ship who regularly plots courses across oceans and seas yet still believes the earth is flat.
I don't think there's anything odd about that at all. Do you think these particles "just happened" to exist ? Now that would be odd !
I think you would be surprised how many scientist including in this field are practising Christians.
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looks like ice melt has halted for the time being... 500k sq kms up on last year. according to CT..
Looks that way although I wouldn't rule out a slight further decline. In 2007 the ice took a long time to start to grow back (long flat bit at minimum), will be interesting to see what happens this year. My forecast back in April (I think) that the 2008 minimum would be between 1 and 2 Msqkm above the 2007
minimum may not be far from the mark.
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the problem is, as governament staff(sort of Civil Servants) they are, usually, not able to do do that. Suffering in silence with some people is not necessarily the way they might like to do it.
Cheers John.
I'm not saying suffer in silence, just shrug shoulders, have confidence in what they are doing and get on with it.
If scientists react in an emotional way to criticism, it is a slippery slope, because it is at that point that objectivity starts to go out the window and a siege mentality develops where bias is introduced, probably without them even realising it.
I'm very suspicious, through experience, of scientists reacting emotionally when their work is challenged.
Anyway going O/T now so will shut up :lol:
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Do you have any idea how much anger and incomprehension is felt by the vast majority of scientists who, wherever their funding comes from, work hard and honestly to try and further human knowledge? Bluecon and Delta, how many scientists do you know and talk to? Is your cynicism for all mankind, or is it reserved for people who, rightly or wrongly, but genuinely hold uncomfortable beliefs with which you disagree?
Bit emotional there OSM. Could you give me a better idea by naming some of these upset scientists, together with evidence that they are upset ?
I am a scientist, paid very well in the private sector for the last 23 years as I do a very good job, cynicism doesn't come into it.
I've deleted my earlier post as it added nothing positive to the discussion but tks Osm for a sensible input.I did know, still know, some of the meteorologists who are part of what is now the Hadley Centre and they are quite affronted by the type of comments about them being pro for the money in it as seems to be suggested at times by some.
John, I get an amount of criticism in my job, but deal with it. These guys should be professional and deal with it. If they are certain of themselves, it should be water off a ducks back.
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I think many of the eminent Russian scientists are quite sceptical of AGW. However Putin signed the Kyoto protocol as he knew it would have no effect on the Russian economy and he could barter trade status favours from the EC.
Anyone who doesn't acknowledge that there are massive political forces at work here are being very naive.
I do worry for the scientific community over AGW, if it turns out to be wrong, and we do not warm or possibly cool for the next 10 years or so, it could be a tremendous body blow to the credibility of the "scientific community", one which could take a long time to recover from.
Good on you GWO, it's a free country (just) so all the best with it.
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Seeing as my Mum died from a gall stone that ruptured her gall bladder which eat away at the rest of her internals leading to septicaemia (at 50years) I was saddened to hear that a warming world will lead to more such cases.
The Washington Post is today frightening New Yorkers with similar
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8071701557.html
Very sorry to hear that your mother died so young GW.
However, the report you quote is simply alarmist speculation. Plus the fact that we are no longer warming, I'm not concerned.
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I believe the main source of arctic sooty deposition is eastern Asia far to the southwest of the region. And I've said before on this thread or at least this forum, that I believe sooty deposition is a greater threat to the ice than ambient temperatures so this is yet another weakness in the Kyoto approach which fails to hold China to the same standard as other nations.
As to the ice in the Northwest Passage, I seem to recall that the St Roch had to break through some areas of ice in the Northwest Passage. As far as a viable sea passage there is only one main Northwest Passage, the second one is much shallower and prone to ice buildups throughout the season.
I'm taking the middle ground on this comparison of ice extent in 2007 and 2008 ... time will tell what the eventual comparison at maximum ice-melt in September looks like, and I'm predicting with lots of uncertainty that it will amount to another large ice-free anomaly in roughly the same sectors north of eastern Siberia. I recall that last year this sector only began to develop a large clearance of ice after mid-August, although it was probably beginning to show up north of the Bering at about this stage.
Roger, I enjoy reading your posts and I agree with you that soot deposition is a greater threat to arctic ice than ambient temperatures.
However, the Siberian sector was very ice free even in July 2007..so I think 2008 will be much better.
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Hello all
First post
Looking at the info about last years ice minimum and this years it looks to me that...1. The area the ice is covering is more at this time than last year.
2. The amount of ice concentration for is much less (looking at arctic.atmos.edu)
So it looks like a catastrophemight be on the way Darkaman as a large amount about to go if the concentration pictures are correct.
We will all see soon...
Welcome stormynight, I hope it is the first of many posts.
I can see where you are coming from but look at the graphics from 9 and 10th July. On the 9th I would say that concs looked quite healthy.On the 10th less so...
However, no-one knows the future so we shall see ...but I think no catastrophe ...I'd be much more concerned about Iran and Israel if I wanted to talk catastrophe..
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This is Mr. Dilley. Thank you for inviting me to your forum.
I will briefly answer 2 questions posted here.
First....The e-Book was peer reviewed by 4 professional meteorologists, re-written many times to include their input. Tried to publish the e-Book much like a scientific journal would do. One reviewer is a past reviewer for the Journal of Climate.
Second....All the information backing up my claims are in the e-Book, and yes the correlations are near 100 percent, this is what makes it the "Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate" PFM
The PFM drives many climate features, including tracks of hurricanes, historical weather events, and the El Nino.
I will try to answer as many questions as I can, speculative questions need to be addressed with other forum members that have read the book.
Yes the book is forsale. I did not receive any outside funding for my research, so it is totally unbiased. Absolutely no funding from energy groups, envrionmental groups or government funding.
Hi David, thanks for visiting.
I come from a position of scepticism that CO2 is the main driver of climate. As you suggest, global warming causes release of C02 due to factors such as lower solubility in oceans etc. so it's difficult to know which is driving which in todays situation. I think measurements show that the majority of the increase in CO2 at the moment is industrial in origin due to the higher C14 isotope level. (I see you have a chapter on natural and industrial CO2 in your book.) Do you think that this isotope question is a problem for your theory ?
thanks
Mark
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They neither wish ,nor are willing, to enter the board and so rely upon our good selves to provide them with as 'accurate picture' of the current polar situation as we can. Neither snipping or 'old news' aids them in that. Or am I wrong?
I think we can share some good banter GW but I think most reasonable posters/lurkers can see that you have lost the plot old chap !
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Argentinian scientists conduct experiments on cows to assess at what rate they are releasing methane into the atmosphere ( It's true, it's in The Sun! )
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/...icle1401179.ece
I'm sure some on here can think of some good captions...
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even the NW passage deep water channel is melting from both ends with only the central section 'jammed'.
Patently untrue.
Doesn't look like the eastern passage will open either.
Just a thought, could we keep these environmental speculations to the Enviro thread ? Why duplicate it on both ?
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Depends what you mean by 'valid' (and 'shows' I guess). For me it's science from the Met O or NOAA or GISS for other perhaps something from the Heartlands institute or WUWT/CA.
Anyway here is a Met O press release that refers to a paper I think valid and that shows there is change. Worm out of that
When they stop underestimating the urban heat island effect I could begin to believe it. And I certainly would want to see a deal more evidence than that bled out in a loaded press release.
Are you saying summer 2003 was as exceptional as it was because of super UHI's? Well, it would have to cover the whole of Europe, urban and rural. I don't buy it, but make your case if you like (if that is your case that is).A recent research tender from DUE seems to indicate we need more data in this field:
And so the funding machine churns on and on.... :o
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Yep, thought this might happen - last month it was all about graphs showing we were exceeding the melt from last year and then this month suddenly nobody wants to see that rapid melt completely failing to show up:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NSIDCICE7608.JPG
so instead we talk about pools of water in a web cam image - per-leese!
Here's a graphic that may show it a little more clearly. This is a smooth of the average melt (lowess with f=.2) for the average of the period with online daily information from this source(http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv), 2007 and 2008. It seems that 2007 already has an insurmountable lead over 2008 and we ain't breaking any records this year. The x scale is Julian days, BTW, and the graph shows a pretty good profile of the excessive melt and then excessive freeze of 2007.
Next panic please....
Like the signature GW - boo to you too
Well said Millennia. All this froth and bubble over web cam images, which unless they had been subject to this kind of scrutiny over the past 10 years, tell us absolutely nothing about trends.
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The original carrots were purple, over the years, the colour has been bred out of them; agree, they're not impressive.
The Dutch turned them Orange, no word of a lie !
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GW - this graph is the one the media hacks at the Independent and BBC reproduced in the last week to make a story about "No Ice at the North Pole". Zoom into the picture and you now see the departure of this year from last year's anomalous melt. However, as I get fed up of pointing out, early July is too early to make a forecast! However, why don't I just join in and extrapolate the 2008 data and assume it holds the same percentage below the average. I therefore predict :lol: an extent of 7.5m sq km at the end of this month.
Anybody wanna start a sweepstake (any takers should post to Arctic Ice)?
Millennia
I laready started this game back on Carinthians thread back I think in early May. I predicted a NH ice area minimum of 1-2 million sq.km above last years minimum.
Gray Wolf predicted that it would all go.
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Seems a bit strange that doesn't it. Either a data error or maybe a chunk of ice has broken off?
I would say probably a bit of political "correction".
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Thanks for reading both articles Mr S. .You seemed to have dismissed the content for a clip from the student bodies output......ho -hum
I don't need to go to a cesspit to know it's gonna smell
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Ice concentration/extent charts continue to show massive melting to the North of Greenland. I was always under the impression that this was the last major area of multi-year ice left in the Arctic after last year. So if we lose that it is pretty bad:
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png
The difference compared to the long-term average continues to grow, though I dont think we will see an extent as low as last summer.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg
I agree, interesting stuff but the situation seems to have improved overnight !
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The NW passage in the Canadian archipelago seems to have undergone a refreeze in the last week.
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Well, it's rare for the Siberian ice to start melting significantly until later in the season. Very few years had much if any melting there come early July, last year being an exception.
QED.
I think if you take a look at this we are now 'clean through' the ice sheet. The far bank of what, 4 days ago, was a puddle is showing ice down to depth of about 1 to 1.5m and dark water below.
Scrabble as you may to show 1st July north pole melt as similar you won't.
I think that's amazing how you can tell water depth from a webcam image. I'm a keen angler and that skill would be useful, save plumbing the depth etc- what's the secret ?
And with practically no effort at all, I have found this image 7/7/2003 showing a large melt pool at the NP !
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looking at the x axis it doesn't go beyond 1970 ish? also worth noting its Northern Hemisphere only so while obviously relevant to global temperatures it is incomplete on its own..
Yep , you're quite right
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One thing I find interesting is that the single year ice on the Siberian side which was supposed to vapourise upon Sun up
seems to be very resilient.
Looking at the info about last years ice minimum and this years it looks to me that...
Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Recovery looking very good so far, much quicker bounce back than last year !