[Early winter hopes and chat]

Thanks Barry. I just wondered whether there was a correlation, as we are always being told that a warmer world means more extremes.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Is there any correlation, I wonder, between exceptionally warm years on the globe resulting in cold winters in the UK? I know 2010 was quite a warm year across the globe, but is this just coincidence?

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

Will a weaker vortex this year, help high pressure to be more dominant than last year?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Let's face it, newspapers love extremes. Once we've had one extreme they get a bit carried away, and they think the same thing will keep happening over and over again. That's my view.

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

Surely the law of averages alone is enough to suggest that last year's pattern won't be repeated again this year. I mean mild and wet conditions are always highly likely in a typical British winter, but last year was exceptional right...?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Harve, I had really thought about that. But now that you've explained it I can see what you mean I think. You're basically saying that 30 years is long enough for exceptional values to only slightly affect the figure since exceptional months (e.g. December 2010) are rare anyway, right...?

 

Thanks for explaining.

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Thanks for making me aware of that, virtualsphere. I'll be sure to take a look at those posts. Roger explained that the CET zone as a bell curve around the averages. What does this actually mean?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Well thanks for explaining Roger. I know I have a lot to learn.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Am I right in thinking that the sun's apparent motion along the ecliptic is more eastward than southwards as we get closer to the winter solstice, and this is why the amount of daylight we lose each day is starting to get less each day now?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

I struggle to understand how long term monthly averages (such as 30 year averages) tell us what to expect in a given month. Surely some of the averages can be distorted by the odd exceptionally mild or exceptionally cold month...? Is there such thing as a modal average, which tells us a typical daily temperature for a given month?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Weather Online has just updated it's outlook, and it sounds promising. They are going for colder weather next week, after a fairly mild start. It looks as though high pressure will be influencing our weather. Let's just hope that they haven't changed their mind by the time the next update is issued.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I would love to see another December 2010. Let's face it cold weather makes the festive period feel more traditional. Sadly though the odds alone suggest that this December is unlikely to be as cold as 2010's. Having said that though, the jet stream has been behaving very strangely in recent years, and we do seem to have had lots of extremes. December 2010 was the coldest in 100 years, but the pattern could be repeated any time, who knows...?

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

That's exactly what I've noticed too, summer sun. You'd think they'd at least try to be consistent with their 'forecast' if they want to sound educated.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I have also had a look at the met office look ahead, and I noticed too that they don't seem to be mentioning anything about cold. They do seem to be expecting high pressure to develop though, so lets hope this brings in some chillier air...

[Early winter hopes and chat]

You can probably tell I'm no professional. Lol

[Early winter hopes and chat]

 

In that case, would I be right in assuming that cold winters are still possible even in Westerly QBO seasons?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Any sign of the figure taking a tumble between now and the month's end?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Well of course, it may not have had anything to do with it. I'm just becoming obsessed with the idea of sunspots affecting the weather.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Funny how December 1981 occurred around a solar maximum and December 2010 around a solar minimum. December 2010's overall temperature was slightly colder. Could this be because all the same factors came together again, but the very low solar activity caused it to be even colder? I know I'm probably just clutching at straws here.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

.

I understand that December 2010 was a bit colder overall than 1981 (another exceptionally cold December). But in terms of snowfall which of these was worse?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Is it possible for last year's winter pattern (i.e. exceptionally mild and wet) to be repeated even with an easterly QBO?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Is the jet stream supposed to have slowed down a bit in recent years? I'm sure I read an article that said this. But aren't milder winters driven by stronger jet streams? I'm confused. Can anyone help explain this to me please? Thanks for that Blast from the Past.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Cumulonimbus, what signs do you think are pointing towards quite a cold December? When you say 'quite cold' do you mean slightly below the average?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

How much did the 'Polar Vortex' influence the relentless storms across Britain last winter? Is the cold weather in the USA at the moment and the position of the jet stream a bad sign if we want a cold winter?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Statistically then, based on averages, there is a greater chance of January or February bringing a month as cold as December 2010 before there's another December like that? Does that sound reasonable?