[Early winter hopes and chat]

What's the chances of seeing another December 2010-setup in the next 10 years?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Thanks for posting that graph. So if 2010 was caused mainly by low solar activity, what caused December 1981?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Did the same thing happen in December 1981? Or was that a different setup altogether? I mean what was sunspot activity like then?

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

I read an article earlier this week, and the headline said that the Beast from the East was coming. Then the article said that we are in for months of Atlantic Storms and above average temperatures. Do some of these newspapers even know what the Beast from the East is? If they want to try to0 convince the public that a mild and wet winter is on its way, then surely they should know that this sort of weather comes from the west!

[Early winter hopes and chat]

So basically low sunspot activity may have played a big part in the freeze of 2010, but there's other factors that could cause such cold outbreaks? Something like December 2010 is possible even in years with high solar activity?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Do you believe that the rare freeze experienced in Britain in late November and throughout December 2010 was anything to do with reduced solar activity? I have heard lots about the idea that solar variability affects the weather. I know that Piers Corbyn of Weather Action believes that the Jet stream is affected by solar activity, rather than the temperature contrast between the tropics and the Arctic. I do understand, of course, that Piers is not a mainstream weather forecaster, and although I find his predictions interesting I'm not saying that I believe them. What do you think?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Quite a few of the longer range forecasts seem to be hinting at high pressure having more of an influence on the UK's weather later next week. However most seem to show temperatures remaining close to or above the average. I'm assuming that the temperatures we experience depend on where the high is centred, as this determines the air flow that we get...?

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

What annoys me about these newspapers is how they can't even be consistent with their so-called forecasts. I mean one day the headline will say that we are in for months of bitterly cold temperatures and snow, the next they say we're in for weeks of Atlantic storms and flooding. Funny how they never predict just a normal average winter. Well...that wouldn't make the newspapers fly off the shelves would it?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Is the fact that the cold winters of recent years have tended to follow cool summers, just pure coincidence or is there a scientific reason that cold winters follow cool summers? I have often wondered about this, because the mild winters of the late 1990s and early 2000s tended to coincide  with warmish summers too if I remember right...? Would I be right in thinking that warm summers store more heat into the seas surrounding Britain, meaning that it takes longer to cool down the following autumn/spring and in cool summers, not so much heat is absorbed by the ocean so the seas are cooler than they normally would be when we approach autumn?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Thanks for confirming that. I just wanted to check that I was on the right track. So if for example one day the maximum daytime temperature was 7c and the night time low was -2. The overall temperature that day would be 2.5c?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Thanks for the links Bobby, and Summer blizzard, I enjoyed reading your post about November 2005. Thanks for your explanation, Blast from The Past, about that November.

 

Does know whether we are heading towards a NNAO?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I'm still an amateur here, so I was wondering if anyone can help explain what caused the cold second half to November in 2005? I was 17 at the time and I remember some very thick fogs forming and often lingering through much of the day. Was there a rise in pressure over Greenland back then or something? I'd be happy if anyone could message me and try to explain this. Thanks

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Am I right in thinking that in order to get the daily mean temperature, I add the maximum daytime temperature to the minimum night time temperature (subtract the minimum if it is a negative value). Add all the daily means together at the end of the month and divide by the amount of days?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Couldn't agree more Damianslaw. Daytime temperatures have felt distinctly seasonal. It's the succession of mild nights that has caused this November (to date) to be above average temperature wise. Having said that though I was walking my four-legged friend in the park on Wednesday afternoon, and I was surprised at how strong the sun felt at 2:30pm. This seems rather strange considering that the sun is just weeks away from reaching its most southerly declination now...surely?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

All I know is that Britain has a temperate climate, which means that it is harsh from extremes. Britain's summers aren't as cold as other places at its latitude due to being the influence of the Atlantic Ocean. This also means that summers are not as warm as those on the continent? Am I right?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I've decided to leave the site, because I know nothing about the weather...bye

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

November frost and fog a thing pretty lacking in recent autumns, but let's not forget 2005. lol

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I'm on the autistic spectrum. Please don't be too hard on me. I never said that I believe the Daily Star's headlines. Nevertheless, I find it an interesting read. Some newspaper has to be right surely...?

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Let's face it, it would take something exceptional to return this November to average now. We would need a second half like 2005 or 2010 - funny how those two were so close together isn't it?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

According to today's Daily Star, we can expect a repeat of last year's winter, with wind and rain likely to be the main feature of the weather for weeks to come. I personally hope that this is wrong, because I love cold and snowy weather, and would love a repeat of December 2010. However, I have a horrible feeling that if the USA gets record breaking cold again this year, it is going to put the UK in the firing line for relentless Atlantic depressions. Even if we are lucky enough to end up with an high pressure-dominated winter, it could turn out to be a very mild one, but at least it would give Britain a change to dry out.

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

Would some sub zero night time values later in the month be enough to bring the value back to average?

[Early winter hopes and chat]

If I remember right, last November saw a slightly below average CET for November...? However, the following winter, December-January-February, went on to be very mild. This November, however it is looking like being an above average month temperature wise. I am guessing that we will have a very mediocre December this year, with temperatures trending very near average.

 

I think a change could take place in the new year with the run of above average months finally coming to an end. February will probably be the first month to achieve a below average outcome, albeit only slightly below average. January, I think, will end up slightly milder than average, but the cold will come in the last 10 days.

 

In summary: I think the Atlantic will gradually lose it's strength as the winter progress (as you would expect on average). As the Atlantic cools down - I have read some reports that a NNAO might come into play in the new year! - high pressure will have more of an influence on our weather.

 

I think there won't be much snowfall, but plenty of dry but cold conditions. I think a 'cloudy high' will come into play at some point in December, probably after a rather unsettled start. The high will be centred slightly to the west of the UK, meaning that daytime temperatures will typically be around 6-8c, any clearing skies at night though are likely to result in patchy frost and fog, and daytime temperatures could be pegged back a little further in places where the fog is slow to clear.

 

All guesswork, I admit, but based on reports and articles I've read!

[November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts]

What with the exceptionally mild first few days to this month, and the mild nights we are experiencing, no wonder the CET is above average to the 13th. Let's hope for some frosty nights with some sub zero values later in the month to bring the CET back down to average...or at least make it less above average.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

Thanks for the warm welcome Polar Maritime. As I said in my introduction, I have always been interested in weather, but I'm far from being an expert. I'm mainly here out of interest, but also out of a desire to learn more.

[Early winter hopes and chat]

I am hoping for some cold weather too. It would be nice to have a traditional winter for once, with the coldest weather coming later in January and into February. Maybe even if this winter is mild overall, there could be a notable cold spell later in the winter that would slightly reduce the December-January-February average temperature, so that the coming winter is a bit less mild overall than last...?