shetland islands
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Posts posted by shetland islands
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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
Bit dubious of the 5cm here
Ha! More like 1 cm!
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
18z suite showing a bit of a downgrade on both potential and more of a risk of marginality this run. This is due to the LP weakening quicker than expected which also starts to weaken the front and thus reducing totals.
Thursday still up in the air, and if I was north of the Thames (can't bare to say that moterways name!) I'd be getting more interested. Exact angle and location is key. South of the Thames, especially further west are at the moment low risk of snow unfortunately. Still more than enough time for change however!
Yeah, it looks like it's gone from a SE event to a more Midlands event on Tuesday and Thursday on the latest models. In fact, the front on Tuesday basically fizzles out as it heads SE. Interesting changes and see whether they continue tomorrow.
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Tuesdays runner is turning into a diver which has more chance of affecting the french rather than English riviera !
Anyway, that Tuesday trough is getting a bit narrower by the run!
Indeed. Actually not much in the way of snowfall so it does seem to tie in with the metoffice warning of 1-3 cm. I suspect the front will be quite patchy.
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I think some in even in the south of that warning area will struggle to see the snow settling with relatively high few points. I would say E Midlands, E. Anglia and Lincolnshire have a good chance of it all being snow.
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The runs will change by the morning again. So much uncertainty. I wouldn't be analysing them too much. Some snow about, but we all know that if a low slides it generally goes further south and in most cases misses us completely. I think it will be Sunday until we are sure about early next week.
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During mid December, I attended an emergency planning meeting at my work and the contingency planners were pretty confident of a cold January and February. So much so, the local authority ordered 25% more rock salt. However, at the same meeting today, they were much less bullish than before Christmas. The *risk* is there on the longer term models, but they are now less confident of a very cold February and said it may just turn out to be pretty standard winter weather.
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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Well the 18z GFS ensembles are more or less useless for trying to figure out a pattern past 120hrs to be honest and there are a lot of very different solutions!
Lots of snow opportunities on a large percentage of those runs, and the cortex keeps spitting out upper lows into the Atlantic and towards W.Europe. Other than that, no real signals crop up from the ensembles!
ps, a lot of those -5C type runs also have Lps quite close by as well. Deep cold is not on the table for at least the next 12 days at least, but you DON'T need deep cold in the right set-up.
It is concerning that there is still is no real signal for anything v cold or sustained cold. The current colder air just isn't that good for the majority of the country or lowland areas. Transient wintery showers isn't really what we are looking for. It seems that the longer range models, so far, have failed big time this winter. Still very much time to change, but I suspect if we go through this week and there is still no great outlook, then a few people will be scratching their heads.
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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:
The pv is just gonna be built back up in 24 hours . It can take weeks . Not worry about that yet . I’m sure there meto oulook is based around this .
Agreed. Hopefully we will have some change in the charts soon.
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The 60 N zonal winds turned westerly again yesterday, so the PV is in recovery mode. Not good. See the Met guys tweet in the tweet thread.
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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Yer that’s true but it’s still got cold to very cold . And the only way it could be very cold is from the NE or E ?
Yes, a cold N to NE flow this week until the pattern sinks later on...next weekend Aka GFS, ICON etc.... it just seems to me that the wording is moving towards that scenario.
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It's clear the UKMO are just going with a blend of their own model for now. If the 12z continue to be poor and become more consistent in backing away from the colder air, then I suspect it will change again tomorrow. As the mention of E winds and coastal snow showers has been removed, I suspect they are also backing away from the Easterly.
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...
Ramp put away til 00z..
Yes and their website 5-day forecast doesn't really support widespread snowfall as of yet.
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Just now, shaky said:
Good start so far!!!could still be in for a turnaround lol!!given me a boost for my run although its hammering down here!!
Although the models are often over progressive with the Atlantic, the block isn't that cold. It is forecast to be above freezing in parts of Germany and Poland all next week. Even southern Sweden is forecast to be between 1-4C.
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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
colder air just about in by 192, but to me looks no different to the E'ly in Nov, still FI though as far as uppers go
Yes, but it will certainly feel more seasonal. Although not cold enough for widespread lowland snow. wintery showers, yes.
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Surface drought is now over. We have now had more than the July average of rainfall since Thursday afternoon in Lincolnshire. 57.4mm of rain has fallen with another 10-15mm tomorrow. Greener grass already!
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Metoffice 10 day forecast highlights the uncertainty for the weather next week onwards and they seem to be going with their model more than the others. This weekend isn t going to be as hot 28 C rather than 32 C being talked about earlier in the week. It will also be cloudy, so not clear blue skies. The further SE you are the better it'll be, but it could be a cloudy and quite dull weekend and start to the week across NI, Scotland and parts of NW England.
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This coming week isn't that great dispite the large high pressure. Slow moving pattern bringing warm, mostly cloudy and showery conditions. East Wales, W Midlands and the NW will be best. Some parts of the east coast could be cool and full all week. Thundery showers across C S England on most days. Far from perfect weather. Temps 14-25 C.
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Very latest forecast says rain away from 200m + in the Peaks and Pennines and even here it won't last long. Far NE England will do best away from the coasts.
Milder air further north.
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Well constant showers, but nothing to warrant an Amber Warning yet. I thought the showers were meant to merge to produce longer spells of snow this evening in our region? Maybe still time....
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Why does the Metoffice have our region under a yellow warning for today and tomorrow? Only very light snow around and nothing really forecast, so I am ot sure why they have issued one recently?
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4 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:
I’m in a state of... “ I don’t have a clue what is going on “ I expected the warning to be upgraded lastnight early morning. Not now the showers are calming down.. I can only thing it’s now for the drifts etc but who knows anymore I give up..
lol
The revised yellow and amber warnings maybe due to the initial front being further north. It may also be that as this pushes into Lincolnshire, North Nottinghamshire and S Yorkshire it may intensify as it meets the very cold air and strong SE breeze aiding convection. Not sure, but a possibility.
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5 minutes ago, inghams85 said:
It shows some of it reaching by 3pm!!! The charts are all over place so i don't discount anything right now tbh!
That first band is already into parts of S Lincolnshire and seems to be pushing north so it could reach S of the Humber by 3pm? What do you think?
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2 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:
Possible MET Warning upgrades if its an ENE set up??
I doubt it. The showers don't look that heavy.
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8 minutes ago, jtay said:
Anybody on Guernsey?
My friend says they have around 20cm. Alderney has over a foot with higher drifts. Ironic that they have the highest totals so far across the UK.
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Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
This seems to be trending further and further south with every run now. Any further trends south and it could become a non-event for many.