Thunderbolt_
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Posts posted by Thunderbolt_
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On 18/01/2016 at 6:10 PM, March said:
I wish March 2013 had never happened. Not only was it a cold non-event here with just a morning of snow, but ever since every March is hailed as having a good (60%+) chance of being the same. Coldies usually give up a few days into it though!
That's the problem when we get exceptional months, they kind of mess with people's perceptions. Both March 2012 and 2013 were extraordinary for totally different reasons, 2012 for warmth and sunshine and 2013 for cold and snow. 2013 has messed with the perceptions of a lot of cold weather lovers, but at the same time 2012 has skewed mine in a way too.
After those two months, I think mildies like myself seem to expect more in the way of April/May type warmth from March after 2012, whereas the coldies expect more in the way of January-type cold after 2013. In reality, a repeat of either of those two months is not likely for quite a while, if I'm honest.
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My prediction for spring 2016, as of now is for a slightly warmer and slightly drier than average March, a shocker of an April (ala 2012) and a cool and dry May (ala 2013).
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6 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:
That would probably be your worst weather nightmare Scott!
One man's dream will be another man's nightmare. I do like the second half of May though!
Mine would be a very warm and dry, and sunny spring starting in February, with some thunderstorms kicking in later on. A spring comprised of something like February 1998 (7.3C), March 2012 (8.3C), April 2011 (11.8C) and May 1992 (13.6C) would suit me fine.
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LOL
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We've passed the mid-way point of winter and the day length is on the upward trend, and that means that spring is fast approaching.
Due to the El Niño, I think that spring 2016 is going to be quite a cold one to be honest, with April probably being the focal month. I think that there could be some very large rainfall totals on that month.
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Waiting at the tram stop to go to my uni lecture at the moment. There are some lovely anvils over Merseyside:
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The severe winter of the Great War: 1916-17.
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Just seeing all of this lightning around is reminding me of the 25 January 2014, the day when a very vigorous winter squall line crossed the country:
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Since we are seeing some thunder potential in the SW this morning, it reminded me of a weather event on 25 January 2014. This was the day that a very vigorous winter squall line crossed the UK.
Over the course of the morning, a thundestorm developed over Wales. As it moved gradually eastwards, it began to turn into a line of storms, resulting in a violent winter squall line by the early afternoon. This line of storms then progressed SE over the country throughout the rest of the afternoon, producing lots of thunder and lightning.
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1 hour ago, Supacell said:
Two days on and very little has happened. My apologies I did expect from the charts I was seeing that there would have been some thundery activity around our southern and western coasts. Now either I had been drinking too much Christmas sherry and was seeing things that weren't there or the charts I was looking at were still hung over from their New Year celebrations.
There is still a risk of something thundery occurring today around southern and SE coasts of England but if the last two days are anything to go by then I would not hold my breath. After a quieter day tomorrow and more dynamic rainfall into Thursday, there is further convective interest for the end of the week/weekend but it is a long way off and again my breath is not being held for this one.
It's alright, no one is having a go at you. I'd say storms are much harder to forecast in winter because they tend to be much weaker than storms in the summer, so most of them usually just stay as showers, if anything. That's exactly what we saw yesterday.
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13 minutes ago, Stormyking said:
Im quite interested into Tonight, too me it looks as though showers will start to become alot more organised, think ill be up most of the night! -2 lifted touching the South of the island with better wind sheer, anwhere along the South and South West Coast could well be in the risk zone!
Ive dfinatly missed the convective weather for sure!
That's one of the many reasons why I hate winter! Thunder in my area is pretty much confined to July and August, with maybe the odd smaller storm then popping up in the autumn. Once August is done then I know that I'm pretty much waiting 10 or so months for any meaningful thunder, with the exception of small surprises like 25 October 2013, 9 November 2013 and 5 December 2014.
Roll on April, when the convective season really starts to kick off.
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6 years ago today, Tomasz Scharernaker released this forecast. I remember watching it that evening and I actually included a small part of it in my winter 2009-10 video:
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A brief summary here:
December 2015 - the mildest winter month ever recorded, by quite a large margin. Also fairly cloudy and wet.
Days with:
Rain (>1mm): 20
Strong winds (>40 mph gusts): 6
No sun: 7
Thunder: 0
Hail: 1
Fog: 0
Frost: 0
Snow falling: 0
Snow accumulating: 0
Temperatures:
Highest maxima: 16°C (19th) - record high for December
Lowest maxima: 8°C (13th)
Highest minima: 13°C (19th) - record high for December
Lowest minima: 1°C (13th)
Mean maxima: 12.00°C
Mean minima: 6.32°C
Overall mean: 9.16°C - 4.24°C above the 1981-2010 average. - record mildest December
Rainfall:
Wettest day: 27.2mm (Boxing Day)
Overall rainfall: 129.5mm
Air pressure at 18:00:
Highest air pressure: 1024mb (9th)
Lowest air pressure: 1000mb (21st)
Mean air pressure: 1011.3mb
Graphs:
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The sun sets for the final time in 2015:
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It looks to me a bit like there is a secondary squall line developing just behind the main one? If that intensifies, then it could also bring a bit of thunder and lightning for some.
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Yes... one or two places look like they could see nature's version of a New Year celebration this afternoon.
There's no one good time frame to look at here, as the NetWx model has small "pockets" of instability popping up over parts of the west over the course of this afternoon. There are also some pretty steep lapse rates too, as we bring a fairly potent Pm incursion in off the Atlantic and coupled with the deep wind shear, may help to aid thunderstorm development. These storms will most likely be rather weak, as they often tend to be in winter, but could be nice to see for some us
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Gone very windy here in the last hour or so. No rain yet, though.
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Rain looks to again be the main cause for concern from Frank, not so much the winds (though they too will be quite strong). The worry is that weather fronts may come up against the Scandy high and be blocked over the UK. If this happens, then the New Year period could be a pretty dark time. Unfortunately, that is actually what this morning's GFS is suggesting...
Wednesday could be a pretty wet day...
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Storm Frank has been named by the Met Office and the Met Eireann and is expected to hit the UK on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
did you get one on 25th Jan '14? I did was a good one
No unfortuantely, the squall line that day developed just to the south of Manchester. I think I heard one distant crack of thunder, before it moved away.
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Had a pretty interesting winter thunderstorm that just skirted this area, this time last year:
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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
90's winters great, also much better bbc tv weather, Dec '95 seemed a good month, not much wind and rain muck of nowadays
I'm surprised you would prefer the 1990s winters over those of the 1980s. It was only really 1990-91, 1995-96 and maybe 1996-97 which were the cold winters in that decade. All of the other winters overall were either near average or very mild.
The 1980s on the other hand saw plenty of cold winters - 1981-82, 1984-85, 1985-86 and 1986-87, with other notably cold months - February 1983 (1.7C) and March 1987 (4.1C).
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Spring 2016
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Of course. I'd welcome a repeat of March 2012 with open arms any year as it is my favourite ever March. The point I was trying to make with my post is that it is unfortunately not likely to be repeated for a while, so there is no point really expecting that at the moment.