Stu_London
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Posts posted by Stu_London
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High humidity and cloud cover have been the story of May and June keeping the minimas way above average
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No drop again in CET, looks to be a very very steady fall.
It may even rise today!
That said a fall looks inceasingly likely after the 20th
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I thnk 15 to 15.5c is looking good. I still anticipate it to perk up though again towards the end of June
BFTP
Nothing on the charts to suggest this yet and ot would have to be a big peak to have a major effect on the CET in the last couple of days.
I personally think the CET will fall from the 21st to the end of the month but is unlikely to get below about 15.3C
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I find it really bizarre that anyone would not already safely assume we'll break the 11.0c threshold this year.
Hitting 11C does rather assume that temps for the rest of the year are at least near to those last year which from July to November were at record levels.
Patterns and teleconnections look very different to last year to me.
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Whats more interesting is the drop in Hadley is out of sync with the drop in Manley - when Manley dropped 0.1 (actually just 0.05 but rounded down) Manley fell 0.2, then Manley dropped 0.2 and Hadley stood still..... Its at 16.0 to the 15th, lets see where it goes today when they update
Manley did drop slightly (it is rounded up today) however to get any where near 15C we will need some really unseasonally cold minima or another May bank holiday event.
The rain average continues (and will continue) to soar ahead - now at 131% - remarkable because 5 days ago it was next to nothing
Sun is below average and looks like remaining so however there will be pleasant weather around at times.
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Mr Data, could you tell us of any July's cooler than June or if there are not any, could you list July's that were within 0.5C of Junes vale??
20th Century Occurances
1910
1919
1920
1922
1930
1940
1950
1960
1965
1966
1970
You will have to ask the real Mr Data for pre-20th Century occurances.
Bizarre that: -
i) out of 11 occurances in the 20th Century - 7 of them were with years ending in zero (did Spurs win the cup the very same years also)
ii) something that was roughly a one in 7 year event abruptly ended in 1970
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120% of normal now Stu http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0706.htm
So well on course for 6 of the last 7 months to be wetter than average. With a bizarre saharan April in the middle of them
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Jun 01-14
16.3C
All eyes on the rainfall totals for the moment - still below average but rising fast
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Didn't see the run Stu, but I do hope you weren't just reading the GFS max-min numbers. They are a fairly crude indicator at the best of times. Today, for example, as of yesterday, GFS was showing 19s and 20s at best. The central S Midlands generally reached 22-23.
I think the GFS min-max numbers are generally ok, although the actual maximum each day generally falls midway between the 12Z and 18Z that each prediction is progged for. It probably was 20C at 12noon and 6pm but 22-23 at 3-4.
Generally I add a degree or so, or maybe a bit more if strong sunshine is predicted.
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My 9.96C ship seems to have gone the way of the Cutty Sark
My caveat at the time was however that it depended on
i) Super eruptions at both Java and Yellowstone
ii) A solar minimum of the like seen in Danny Boyle's "Sunshine" :lol:
Looks like my final hope of winning will depend on how much effect there is on daytime maximas when the low lying CET stations become submerged by rising sea water
:lol: :lol:
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I think it's very unlikely even if the cool 12z comes off. 15.5C-16C would still be my bet.
I don't however think we'll see a 30C this month anywhere in the UK.
I agree temps progged by the 12z do seem unrealistic - 2nd half of the month looks cooler than the 1st half again though.
I also agree we wont see 30C this month and may struggle to see the temps top 25C again this month.
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Shockingly cool output from the 12z GFS
Max temps in the CET zone average about 16C (and don't exceed 21C for the whole run)
Min temps average 10C
14.3C for the month anyone?
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Philip gives the relative value according to the average for the month to date, not the month as a whole. Thus, for example, it is possible after a third of the month for rainfall, say, to show >100% of norm, despite being well below the normal total for the month as a whole.
Also, as I mentioned previously, you may or may not be in CET land, but that in no way means that your site is representative.
I'd hardly say that Dr H is "in the middle". He may have something of a case for being a middle Englander, but he is, by my reckoning, OUTSIDE the CET zone (a triangle bounded by Manchester, Bristol and London). Nowhere EAST of the M1 can possibly be in the CET zone.
All the more likely to have values surpressed by low cloud last week then as west was definately best.
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Im still suprised that the CET is so high, its over a degree higher than here in Northants. Also it says its +2.8 above average, how can this be when the 30 year average for this part of Northants is 15 degrees, and we are only 0.3 degrees above it. If thats correct than the June CET average is 13.4 degrees, a full 1.6 degrees lower than the 30 year average than whaer I am, right in the middle of the cet zone?
1) It's +2.8 above for the period 01-10Jun
2) June is month of transisition. Should the CET remain at 16.2C by the end of June it would be 2.1C above average
3) Whilst you might be right in the middle, your maxima might be supressed by the low cloud we had over the end of last wee
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Remember the 2005 forecast (the -NAO one) wasn't released until September. I think they held it back until the saw what the dynamic model was predicting for winter. If this years SST's point towards a -NAO they may hold back longer than they did last year. Another advantage of waiting is to see what happens with La Nina.
Whenever it comes out, I will be taking a great deal of notice - excellent forecast the last 2 years.
An regardless of GW or AGW, if the NAO and AO signals are correct, then the UK still has potential for severe weather.
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Looking at the 12Z GFS run, we may see a slight rise for today and possibly tomorrow however low daytime maxes look the order of the day for the rest of the week although there is likely to be a steep temperature gradient and uncertainty over how far south into the CET zone these progress.
Later in the week, the daytime temps will remain just below the average throughout the CET zone, however there is the prospect of some lower night time minimas.
Overall the signal is that the CET in running will drop in the next 7 days although there is quite a range as to where we could be by next weekend.
My guess is about 15.3C by next weekend, although if I had to call a spread the range would be 14.3C - 16.0C.
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Well i think that the second half of the year will be cooler then the first and might help balance out things at least a little and that the cet for the year might not be quite so high as some people think
What was unusual about 2006 was the period Aug (06) to Jan (07) was 0.40C warmer than the period Feb (06) to Jul (06). In the 30 year period prior to this, there was only one other occurance of this being 1979 (Feb 79-Jul79 was 8.97C - Aug79-Jan80 was 9.10C). Aug06-Jan07 was 11.25!
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Hadley at 15.5 to the 5th a whopping 0.6 below the current Manley reading - I don't remember that much discord between the two figures before. Be interesting to see where they end up!
Big (suspicious?) change to Manley today
Down to 15.7C
Looking ahead, although we have warm air aloft and the potential for high temperatures for the next few days, the cloud cover is supressing this potential. From the 11th some sort of pattern change looks likely with a cool down.
A long way to go but I think the people who punted high are struggling again.
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Yes let's kick this nonsense into touch once and for all. The post-modern post-1997 average is utter guff: an entirely spurious mean that has no basis whatsoever in metereology. Either use the 1961-1990 mean or the 1971-2000 mean; or reference to the 'longer term average'; but no more of this silliness please. A baseline of just 9 years is statistically too open to margins of error to have any meaning, quite apart from seeming to invite manipulation to prove this or that theory about any single month's performance.
Have to agree for the most part - I become very suspicious of statistics being manipulated in this way, besides niether post 1988 nor post 1997 hardly really contain enough cricital mass to make them worthwhile.
Also agree with SM that 1971-2000 is the one to use - that is what everyone else uses.
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Not sure if this has been done before and how many replies this will get in this particular forum however I thought I would see what members would wish for if they could import the climate from any other part of the world to here.
Now, if I have my sensible head on, I would surely say the climate of the UK (as it stands today). It is changeable and unpredictable, which makes it interesting, it is benign with pleasant but bearable summer peaks with winter conditions that rarely disrupt for longer than short periods of time. The weather is rarely of a life threatening nature in this country and our long term economic prosperity owes much to our kind temperate climate that has allowed industry and agriculture to thrive for many generations.
Taking the sensible hat off for a moment however, for myself and many on here I suspect, the UK climate is slightly boring - "I'd like more thunderstorms, tornados, hurricanes, snow, cold, hot etc" depending on what my personal preferences are.
I think the best climate I can think of would be somewhere near Virginia or North Carolina, near the coast (but not on the beach).
The reasons being for this is that the temperature is never really really extreme but can get cold of very cold in winter and hot in summer. There is lots of opportunities for snow in the winter. Spring and early summer are generally very nice. High and late summer into early Autumn does get humid however powerful storms and occasional hurricane activity are the payoff against this.
An honourable mention also goes to the Korean Peninsular which has generally warm to hot temps for 9 months of the year and a winter from Siberia which can be bitter. Tropical cyclone activity occurs in summer and autumn and snow frequently falls on Christmas Day. The only thing that stopped me picking this as my preferred choice was that it is too wet in summer and too dry in winter.
Any other suggestions are most welcome
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Yes at the start of a new decade the previous 30years stats. are used,so the example you give is correct.
Not so actually, there is a lag of 5 years - The met office only started using the 1971-2000 averages as a benchmarck from January 2006. For the rest of the decade previously, the 1961-1990 averages were used.
Therefore in January 2016, the 1981-2010 average will be used as a benchmark.
Unless of course the whole benchmarking procedure is overhauled which is possible
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Does anyone think May 2007 will have a cooler second half than the first half outcome despite the warm spell earlier in the week before the Bank Holiday?
No - because the first half was 11.8C
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May continues to plough a very narrow corridor compared with every other month in recent times. Noteworthy given the general warmth in recent months, and noteworthy in another way because the set ups were often cool (if not cold apart from early this last week) and yet STILL we are only just in touching distance of an average month, and well clear of a cool or cold one.
Well done to those who punted lower this time. I suspect the forecast pack will have closed up somewhat after this month.
Reason for above average - very few minimas below average. May (especially early May) is still a time when moderate to severe air frost can occur under a cold 1996 style high pressure cell
Final figures from Philip Eden's site - 12.0C
Quite surprising that we managed to pick up an extra 0.1C yesterday (and disappointing from my point of view as my punt was 11.9C)
Still, 0.1C is miles better that anything I have achieved previously
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We'll have to wait and see what the Hadley rainfall value is after they done their quality controls but it looks a possibilty that we could just have had our wettest May since 1967.
All the more remarkable for the complete absense of rain in the first 5 days - the rolling 30 day figure will be interesting on 5th June
June C.E.T
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The anomoly for June (and to a lesser extent May, also) is in my opinion down to a combination of a number of factors, all of which have been discussed in the last few posts and I will list again for ease of reference: -
1) Average sypnotics = slightly above average temperatures
Don't want to get into an argument as to why this is - some say it is down to SSTAs and others to GW generally - probably down to a bit of both in my opinion.
2) High Night time minima
Whilst remembering that the days are warmer too and not getting this point out of perspective, it cannot be disputed that May and June have been in the well above average for night time temps. My subjective view on this is that our weather is becoming more humid and whilst this generally affected July to September generally, this is spreading to months either side of this window. It may have a bearing on why June/October have warmed later than other months if this is a relatively new phenomenom and is something I intend to research further.
3) Not as many cold snaps
It would be unusual indeed for an average month to be average all the way through - you would expect some colder interludes and some warmer interludes. It does seem that in the warmer period we are experiencing (which I consider to be post 1988) that cooler/colder than average interludes have become much more of a rarity. This has been unevenly progressive since 1988. There are varying views why this is for another conversation, but it does seem to be fact. For example, most years would have produced and air frost in the CET zone in May and a ground frost in June - not this year.
4) Showery regime
Perhaps slightly tenuous this one, but a showery regime does seem to promote spikes in the maximum temperature if the sun happens to be out during the warmer part of the day. It may be a factor in considering why the Net Weather tracker has been between 0.3 and 0.6 below the Manley figure this month.
If we turn to why things do not seem out of the normal (if you asked most non weather studiers, I am sure they would say June is average or even below - temperature wise), I do not think it is because we have become acclimatised (after all June has only warmed up very recently indeed). The reason why it feel so weird that June is above average is because whilst all of the above points are true to a large degree, none of them are dominant drivers therefore we can't quite get our head around why June is warm, when it doesn't really feel so.
July 2006 was the hottest month ever because we had 3 heatwaves - all dominant drivers in the statistics and therefore memorable. Winter 2005/6 was below average but because it didn't snow for some and there was no really severe spell it felt average or above for many.
Therefore it's all in the mind.