Norway Nut
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Isn't life grand?
Here are some life events that I use to measure the passage of time ; the first cuckoo of spring, the first roar of a chainsaw as Norwegians start to cut down next winter's wood and the first one - the chorus of posters on Netweather saying "Winter's over".
I really don't understand some folks attitude to winter in the UK. Surely they don't expect a "once in 30 years" event to happen every year? If so, perhaps they need to move to somewhere where it's the climatic norm.
End of...
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:
So as the GFS ignites for another run
if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE
That's fine for me here in Norway! Still outside the reliable (T72) but one lives in hope.
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8 hours ago, knocker said:
I've posted a recent article by Mike Lockwood, Ed Hawkins, et al, in the new research thread but as it's Xmas I thought it of interest to post it in here for your delectation as well. (the reference to spinning and this area is of course coincidental)
Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age
I'm confused ( that's easy I hear you say). I was taught that if there were three major ice sheets then it was an ice age and we are living in an interglacial that's due to end shortly. We've been in the current ice age for the last 2.4 million years give or take. Little Ice Ages, as the paper points out, are little blips on the way.
Has the definition of an ice age changed whilst I wasn't looking?
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I'm sorry in advance if I upset anyone on this thread but I've just about have had enough of the constant moans and bickering in the MOD thread.
There seems to be 3 groups of people in that thread who are very active.
First group, mild rampers who latch onto any whiff of zonal activity and take great joy in parading their doomsday reading of the models under the noses of the other groups.
Second group, cold fanactics - very similar in action to the first group but for cold instead of mild.
Third group, donkeys out of "Winnie the Pooh". These are the most pathetic of the groups. Unless the models are showing 40 day blizzards then everything is just pants. What I say to these folk? Move to Siberia, you'll get your wish to come true there.
There are only a few posters in that thread that try to be as objecttive as possible and even fewer that offer up opinions on what the models will show next. They know they are. There's only a handful that actually try to forecast the weather, the rest just interpret the models' outputs.
One last thing. What's the fascination in looking for the breakdown of a cold/hot spell of weather before that spell of weather has even begun? I'd appreciate an answer to that one as it really makes no sense to me.
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2 hours ago, Devonshire said:
Tentatively - isn't current solar cycle position a good match for cycle 19 (i.e., Winter 1962/63)?! Although we could do with QBO going strongly easterly and La Nina being rather weak for a better match. (It is interesting to note also that the cycle 19 minimum came off the back of a VERY high maximum - unlike current cycle). For what all these things are worth.
Umm, I heard it was a good match for, I think, Solar cycle 12 or 6 or even 5.
"In terms of overall solar cycles we continue to trend very closely to the weaker soar cycles of 5, 6, 12, 14 and 16. Out of all these cycles SC12 has and remains the closest to SC24." http://www.gavsweathervids.com/sc24-25.html
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Happy to help.
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On 08/02/2016 at 18:07, Roger J Smith said:
It is interesting to note that colder winters in the active phase tend to cluster near sunspot peaks
Remember reading a book in mid 80's that quite specifically said when the sunspot numbers go above 150 ( this is the old method of counting sunspots) or go below 50, then cold winters generally dominate. Does this help your analysis? The books title was "Future Weather" but I can't remember the author.
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On 08/02/2016 at 16:41, Roger J Smith said:
The boundaries are chosen to fall mid-way between solar cycle peaks
You must have been a mathematician in a previous life Roger, I was a radio/radar engineer and wannabe radio ham. Sunspot cycles start and finish on specific dates. The peaks, double peaks or plateau generally do not align to the absolute centre of the sunspot cycle.
So you already know that sunspots vary on an 11 year cycle very roughly speaking. I forget the actual range over which the basic 11 year cycle fluctuates but believe me it does. Next in frequency comes the 22 year Solar Polarity change. This is just the Sun flipping the North seeking pole for the South seeking pole and vice versa, so one could argue that the time it takes for the Sun to be in one orientation i.e. North Pole "up" and sunspots at a minimum until the next time is in the same configuration is the true length of the Solar cycle.
This may or may not have an effect on your calculations. Be aware also that one cycle can start while the previous cycle is still ongoing ( the Sun produces sunspots with opposite polarity around the time of the start of every second cycle) but we are just given one number.
By the way, there are also longer time scale cycles in operation. There is a 79 or 80 year cycle of low sunspot peaks, a 100 or 101 year cycle of high sunspot peaks and this forms a 179/180 year cycle ( one cycle of low peaks followed by a high peak cycle). I think the scientists have recently reported that there might be a 360/400 year cycle too.
Happy Correlating!
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8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
I do wonder how folk appear to love having a dig. At the end of it all forecasting is a wonderful art based on science. Unless a forecast leads to injury or death then so what. Some forecasts, believe it or not can have very serious implications believe me, I've been there.
Hi John,
I think you have hit the nail on the head by saying that weather forecasting is an"ART based on science" . Mind you, that takes nothing away from people who make an attempt to forecast. It takes knowledge and guts to attempt one - even a broad brush one.
Perhaps what we need on this site is an ongoing competition whereby a date is selected at a months distance and all forecasts ( temp and wind vector) for a specific weather station ( for confirmation purposes) need to be in at least 3 weeks before the date selected. I doubt many would attempt it though.
There are no weather gods or weather prophets on this site - only forecasters and others.
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'Tis ironic really about the snow starved UK when you consider that here in coastal Norway ( just across the North Sea and south of Bergen and on a smallish island to boot) we're just finishing our 3rd or maybe fourth lot of snow. My missus just loves waking up to "Narnia" on the occasion of overnight snow - it's not so much fun clearing the !!!!!!! stuff! We normally get 1 or 2 coverings, so this year we've had a 50% or 100% bonus already.
Is anyone keeping tabs on the Far East weather ( Vietnam ,Laos and Taiwan) where they've had snow for the first time in donkeys years or ever? And what about Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia? It's remarkable that snow has been recorded at less than 20 degrees N but not in lowland Britain.
"Oh to be in Blighty when snow is falling in what seems to be the rest of the World!"
P.s I did spend 2 weeks tending bar!
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..... and we are still in active phase of the current Sunspot Cycle (Schwabe Cycle number 24, I do believe).
Ian,
Can you explain the phrase " active phase" in the above please?
Yes, we are in Cycle number 24 and heading towards a solar minimum in 2019.
Cheers
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16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
I have made this comment before but I never get why Glacier Point is looked on as some kind of mystical weather guru on this site by some. My issue is not with himself but the people who seem to put him on a pedestal and hang onto his words as though they are sacrosanct. At the end of the day, he is just a forecaster and he's going to get it wrong. February 2009, the "shades of '76" for summer 2011.....
Applying or predicting analogues for the large scale may work but I'm not convinced how it works at the micro level and UK is a small patch on the globe. I have seen these analogues and they give seasons or months that show similar patterns and then I think to myself, well those months or seasons were not the same. They give different weather to the UK. One was mild, another was cold, so how can you make a prediction based on this?
Then you got the meteorological alphabet soup: NAO, AO, ENSO, OPI, PNA, SAI etc....
Yes, he is just a forecaster whose record is astounding but as you say he is not a god (even of small things!). The way I see it is that he (and Tamara!)look(s) into his(their) "tea leaves" ( or more formally, teleconnections) and give(s) broad brush forecasts for up to 3 to 4 weeks ahead. I've not done an analysis of his forecasts but I bet you that his stats are comparable to GFS at D15, that is in the 30 to 40 % range. Considering the money spent on the GFS system, I suppose employing him does seem the cheaper option!
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http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html
This shows ( hopefully!) that the strat temp is not following the normal path of returning to a less negative temp. if you click on southern hemisphere, you will notice that the southern strat temp hasn't yet started to decline to its winter temp. To me, this suggests that the northern BDC has stopped and all the ozone is being transported south to Antarctica. My question to you learned folk is - What is the ramifications if the strat temps stay as they are for the next 10 months or so ( as if they will) ?
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mushymanrob said "sorry, i dont believe in sunspots nor patterns..... " So what's your take on what happened during the Maunder Minimum? (1645 to about 1715)
I usually forecast a cold outbreak 6 weeks ahead somewhere in the N H when the sunspot numbers head south of 75 ( new method of counting sunspots) or 50 ( traditional method). Not very useful I admit!
I also read somewhere that there is a weak correlation with sunspots when the numbers go above 150 ( traditional method of counting sunspots) or perhaps 180 ( new method).
In amongst the 11, 22, 79, 180 and I think, a newly discovered (?) 360 year solar cycles ( not to mention the longer term orbital cycles) there's bound to be some linkage with the weather.
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The locals don't consider it winter until the temp drops below 0 for at least 24 hours so we have had about 15 days of winter so far ( the average for my location is zero).
So here I am stuck in below zero temps ( and have been for the last 2 weeks at least) with only about 7.5 cm of lying snow. Think yourselves lucky that you don't have to dig your drive out on a semi regular basis. I'm looking forward to May when any cold weather is limited to the odd snow/sleet shower ( I have video!).
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Ahhhhh, I remember this scenario well from my youth.
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You might like to bookmark this site :- http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html to watch the cold roll into the UK in a few days time. It gives the previous 24 hours cloud movements. Enjoy.
P.S I'm across the North Sea near Bergen at 40m asl and already have woken up to -8 deg C temps and looking to stay in the freezer for the next 10 days at least.
Regards
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Some of the vids have been removed from you tube so you might like to revamp? 29/11/15
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If the BBC is interested in going "the extra mile", a little place called Skansen here in Austevoll kommune (Hordaland, Norway). It used to be the Norwegian terminus for the "Shetland bus" during the WW2.
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Neighbours farm here in Norway in the winter of 2009/2010. My first winter after relocating here to Western Norway!
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It must be so nice to be able to believe people like Booker when it comes to climate change related topics (or anything for that matter, like evolution, smoking, asbestos). No matter what the evidence, Booker will always go against it with a combination of half truths, misunderstandings and lies, always to convince his readers that the world is fine, there's nothing to worry about and it's just a big scaremongering conspiracy.
It would be so nice to just ignore all the experts, their reports, their studies, their conclusions and simply believe the random columnist that tells me what I want to hear.
So Mr Booker made it all up? Can you believe anything written in the papers?
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I give myself an '8' ( wifey thinks I should give myself a ten!) but it's complicated! I actually moved 1000 km north from the UK South coast but only to coastal western Norway. I drive on studded tyres from October until Easter the following year but a decent snowfall (50mm+) only happens once or twice a season (normally).
We only have 2 lampposts to watch when snow is forecast but as it's dark from about 4 in the afternoon to about 8 the following morning there's not really the need to get up at 4 in the morning to check for snow but I do anyway.
BTW, I moved to Norway in December 2009 and a week afterwards experienced a 3 and half month freeze ( didn't see plus temps or grass). I learnt a lot about sledding that winter!
I have the Finse railway station webcam on my Favourites list ( Finse railway station is 1222 metres asl) and have spent 4 hours travel time ( one way) just to see the snow. Mostly though, I travel electronically most winter days there.
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Personally, I would like to see the model threads more split up along the lines of Pre T120 and post T120. The reason for this? I'm sick and tired of trawling through competing posts saying "oh My God, what a snow fest!" and "put on the suntan lotion". - only to find that the charts they are looking at are for D20+!
Up to 5 days out there's an 80% chance of the model verifing ( mind you, I find some models don't verify at T0). The real amateur forecaster will try and correct for the 20% error whereas the "Chart readers" will ...
Post T120, the verification rates drop alarmingly to about 20% at T240, then it just seems a competition to see who spots the "trend". Really, am I interested who "spots" the trend first? or that the present cold snap is shown to fade away after D40, when it hasn't really got going yet? NO!
Anyway, when it comes to "if", "when" or "where will it snow" or even "how much is it going to snow" then you're talking about a 24 hour window at max not 240 hours!
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As I live on the west coast of Norway, anybody finding themselves nearby is welcomed to stop by for a cuppa before being sent back to Scotland or Shetland. Sustained speeds of 70+mph forecast with gusts exceeding 100+mph from roughly the north-western quadrant are expected. Oh yeah, high water will be exceptionally high too - possible flooding of moorings!
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It wasn't easy moving to Norway like what I did but I was fed up with the constant hunt for snow in the winter time.
Okay, I live in the most snowless location in Norway but I still enjoy a winter that stretches from end of October til about the end of March/ beginning of April. How long does your winter last?
As a result of the move I'm living in a detatched 3/4 bedroomed, 2 lounges, 2 baths( without baths), double garaged property with car and boat. I doubt I would be living in such splendour in the UK!