Wildswimmer Pete
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Posts posted by Wildswimmer Pete
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"Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850."
where do you get that statement from please?
From Yarmy's post #30 above
<snip>
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Then there are the clouds. In a fascinatingly esoteric piece of research, Hans Neuberger studied the clouds shown in 6,500 paintings completed between 1400 and 1967 from forty-one art museums in the United States and Europe. His statistical analysis revealed a slow increase in cloudiness between the beginning of the fifteenth and the mid-sixteenth centuries, followed by a sudden jump in cloud cover. Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850. Eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century summer artists regularly painted 50 to 75 percent cloud cover into their summer skies. The English landscape artist John Constable, born in Suffolk in 1776 and a highly successful painter of English country life, on average depicted almost 75 percent cloud cover. His contemporary Joseph Mallord William Turner, who traveled widely painting cathedrals and English scenes, did roughly the same.
After 1850, cloudiness tapers off slightly in Neuberger's painting sample. But skies are never as blue as in earlier times, a phenomenon Neuberger attributes to both the "hazy" atmospheric effects caused by short brush strokes favoured by impressionists and to the increased air pollution resulting from the Industrial Revolution, which diminished the blueness of European skies.
The changes were not mere artistic fashion but probably accurate depictions of increased cloud cover.
http://onlinelibrary...3232.x/abstract
</snip>
I forget to mention the Dalton Minimum which also occured in that time frame.
Food for thought: https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/
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From Brian Fagan's (excellent) book 'The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850':
(Chapter 12: A Warmer Greenhouse)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1970.tb03232.x/abstract
An unusual proxy and a bit fanciful for me, but interesting nonetheless and relevant to the topic. However we are talking about trends on the scales of centuries.
"Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850." - nicely encompassing the Maunder Minimum.
Musn't mention "Grand Minimum" as it'll annoy another poster - oops, I just did.
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We travelled to Rhosneigr (Anglesey) yesterday (18th) for a three day camping break. The afternoon was glorious but not particularly warm at 19C. However the sea temp. was 16.5C (calibrated thermo and measured as stipulated by FINA) which was urprising as whenever I swam in the sea at Trac Mon 15-20 years ago (just down the coast) I always recorded 14C.
Today was a disaster - we had to strike camp and return home thus losing out on our prepaid pitch fees. Torrential rain and a gale that almost lifted my tent off the ground with my 16-stone frame inside. One of the nastiest August days I can remember - the others being during August 1962, '63 and '87.
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The last few summers haven't been predominantly north-westerly at all. In fact they were actually more easterly in nature (aside from August 2014), as evidenced by the rainfall and sunshine characteristics. Indeed, the sunshine and rainfall anomalies in 2014 are contrary to what this summer will no doubt show.
Here near to the east coast, the last two summers were characterised by a lack of high maxima due to the persistent onshore breeze. This summer (and indeed 2015 as a whole so far) has seen the very unusual pattern of consistently above average maxima and below average minima due to the lack of easterly winds. Indeed, we haven't had any fog here since 23rd April, highly unusual for somewhere 7 miles from the North Sea, usually sea fret is a constant annoyance.
Perhaps I should slightly modify my previous statements - my location seems to have suffered persistent polar maritime or even polar airmass encroachment which here usually arrives on winds originating from the northern quarter. The result is the same - clear, chilly nights followed by a clear dawn, however by the time most of us who have our breakfasts the grey lid of infill has already slammed down. The cloud then melts away around teatime ready for another cloudless, cold night. Next day? Rinse and repeat.
I'm an engineer so suspicious of statistics - I only trust what I see and can actually measure. Likewise my weather observations over the past six decades are based on what I can see through the window and go out and measure (a long time before AWS' came on the scene). I previously mentioned 50 years but I forgot my age, I've been observing since well before my 10th birthday.
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To me , it seems funny that someone who swims in rivers etc complaining about those air temperatures described and yet you will happily swim in water temperatures of the same equivalent or even less.
Look at my avatar, that's a 1" thick slab of ice. The fact that I can withstand extreme cold is by the by - it involves serious physiological adaptation that remodels the body. The reason I do it is of no consequence for this discussion. I do not like cold, grey and thoroughly depressing weather especially in summer - period. Regarding the prevailing cold NWesterlies, here in North Cheshire such winds have blighted us for the past few summers.
As for today, the current temp is 16C, and the wind direction is West - hardly warm and humid
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Sorry Pete, but you need to drop this fanatical 'Grand Minimum' rubbish - it's getting really annoying. Autumn isn't knocking loudly on anyone's door - Friday was never going to be warm regardless of upper air temperature because of rain and cloud. That won't be the case next week - which looks warm, even very warm in places.
Cheese, I've mentioned "Grand Minimum" about three times - hardly "fanatical", If you don't like what I post, then don't read it. I'm entitled to my opinion, you are entitled to yours. I've observed the weather for over fifty years and noted the various cycles during that time. The behaviour of the sun in recent years together with the changes in wind and weather patterns in the North Atlantic, including the obvious cooling and shortening of the past few summers, concerns me. Haven't you noticed the now prevailing cold northwesterly during the past 4-5 summers? If we ARE actually entering a Grand Minimum I'll never see the end of it.
"That won't be the case next week - which looks warm, even very warm in places.............of course, that heatwave that's always on the way in three to 4 days time. Sadly that time doesn't seem to arrive. This "summer" it's been "jam tomorrow".
I could claim that the obsessive use of "cool" rather than "cold" when appropriate is "fanatical" In my view, summer "cool" means 16C to 20C, below 15C is COLD.
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The supposedly warm air that covered the UK on Friday resulted in cold, heavy rain all day here with the temp. no more than 15C. Now at lunchtime on a mid-August day, a schorchio 16C. I wish I could make it up. Looks like "Summer" '15 is already crawling towards an unlamented early grave with autumn knocking loudly on the door.
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I've looked at the websites ed that monitor what the sun is doing and solar activity is quieter than it was last year hence a different jet stream path and the gulf stream not functioning like it has done for the last couple of summers.
Could I mention two words: Grand Minimum
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Their weather presenters are a bit young
That's a cool day in Londumb, it'll probably be nearly as warm as that when you visit in November.
I was with a friend on a delivery today, driving up the M20 towards London and the M25 I was shocked by the extensive yellowish grey pall of smog clearly visible over London. At least the air here in Cheshire is somewhat cleaner.
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Its around now we begin to change the feel of things albeit very slowly, from the heady heights of early summer a certain wistfulness takes hold as we see light levels decreasing ever more each day.. Whilst still very much 'high summer', in the north in particular a feeling of 'what could have been' starts to take hold as we head towards the middle of August, that feeling of promise, anticipation and exception of May and June is by now certainly cast aside.
Not wishing to sound downbeat but you can't deny the brooding mature nature of things at this time of year, everything past its peak and the only way forward is a slow decline.. even the birds go silent in high summer reinforcing this feel, and the colour of green is a deep lacklustre one not the fresh vibrant sparkle of late spring, early summer.
Yes, Monday's supposed heat never arrived here, today's forecast heat hasn't materialised - currently 15C, light rain, and so dull I'm using my room lights on a high "summer" morning. So little IR my Crookes radiometer is stationary - very rare in summer. When I went to Leicester on a delivery with a friend I noticed the number of trees that were showing autumn colours - a bit early? Not been a very good year for those of us who have SAD.
The UK climate must be one of the nastiest on the planet - I've had to endure it for over sixty years.
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Definitely one of the worst Summers in living memory for Telford alongside 2011, no storms, no heatwaves, not one crystal clear sunny day (apart from June 30th when I was away), a relentless howling W/NW wind, sunshine and showers turns in sunless bands of rain, worst weather of the week always at the weekend, and sustained sub 17c maxima far to often.
That's because you are in the firing line of all the dross that funnels through the Cheshire Gap from the northwest. Forecast for today: overnight rain (which we got) then sunny and warm @23C. The reality: leaden grey clouds, Liverpool ATIS reporting 17C @ mid-day. I can't remember a "summer" as bad as this during my 60-odd years.
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Have we been experiencing the effects of a stubborn Scandi vortex? Will the pattern break before the end of "summer"?
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Blimey the showers that wasn't forecast AT ALL TODAY. is now pouring down here... the bbc call it showers .. I call it rain.
Same here, cloudy, wet and cold. Liverpool ATIS reports "showers" but in my view it's rain. Likewise current temp a schorchio, blistering.................errr..............15C
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Can I ask a simply question??? like this morning at 8 am I was checking the weather for my location because I am having a bbq this afternoon.. totally clear this afternoon.. NOW out of NOWHERE showers are forecast.. where did they come from?? oh yeah even in the year 2015 weather forecast is pretty pathetic.
I will not be looking at anymore models or taking any notice of any more forecasts anymore.. whats the point?? sorry rant over..
Same here, day supposed to be mostly fine and warm. The reality: the inevitable grey lid has slammed down and feeling decidedly chilly.
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It's 4.6°C here this morning...ridiculous.
I recorded 6C, appalling low for July in a minor UHI, maritime location. The sunshine this morning now gone with Cu/Sc dross infilling, par for the course for the last five summers.
Edit: Liverpool ATIS reporting 17C - high afternoon in high summer!! Mind you, given the past three months of "Summer" '15 I should be grateful we actually achieved the mid teens.
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Are you sure it was 1967, Pete?
July 1967 was a generally dry and warm month and the lowest maximum I recorded ( close to my current site but much lower) was 15.6c on the 29th.
Yes, it was a very dull day (I was in Liverpool city centre with family) and a maximum of 48F reported in the press, the cause - a set-up sadly too apparent lately, a stiff Northerly straight from the Arctic.
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The lowest maximum I experienced one July day in Liverpool was 48F in 1967 (can't remember the actual date). The cold weather made the front page of the Liverpool Echo. We thought in old money back then but 9C on a July afternoon was remarkable. However with the obvious cooling of recent summers I don't think I'll have to wait long before another 9C July day turns up.
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Hmm...
Anyway, back to the near future and the GFS 06z op stalls the depression in the Atlantic which delivers a much more pleasant outlook for early next week:
We'll have to see how many GEFS members go with that.
528dam air over the north of the UK? That indicates the possibility of wintry precipitation if not actually snow at sea level. Please tell me I'm mistaken. Where is all this cold coming from?
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I've been discussing 1963 on another thread, pointing out that the abysmal summer '63 proceeded to one of the few "Golden Autumns" in my (long) recollection. Warm, dry and sunny, so much so that PE was held outdoors on my school's playing grounds in just shorts. August '63 was the pits, with the last weekend seeing torrential rain and bloody freezing. On the Monday, the first day back to school, cloudless blue sky that mostly lasted during September.
Bear in mind this is personal experience and accordingly subjective, and of course location comes into the equation - in my case: Wirral.
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ha I love how people pick out certain years where the coldest winter on record followed a poor summer..Am still waiting for July 2003 or 2006 to occur..
No one knows what will happen this winter..No one has a clue what will happen this August.. never mind 3/4 months down the line.
Summer 1963 was also abysmal, only redeeming feature was that fortnight's heatwave in May '63. Autumn '63 was a true golden autumn, warmer, more sunny than the preceding summer. I'm not quoting dusty statistics, I'm talking actual experience. Winter '63/64 was average, just three weeks of cold, frosty anticyclonic conditions which broke on Christmas Eve then pretty humdrum until April '64.
It was remarkable to find we had two abysmal summers with a savage winter as the "filling". Of all the Sixties summers the other notable one was 1965 which was dull, but not as cold and wet as summers '62 and '63. Winter '65 was quite snowy but nowhere as cold as 62/63.
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After enduring such a crap summer, i'll be fuming if we dont get a cold winter.
If this "summer" follows the pattern of 1962 (which I endured) then your wish could be granted. Check out winter 1962/63, the coldest on record for the 20th century.
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From what I've seen of the cfs v2 I'm not impressed with the background signal for august. It seems to be offering a trough situation to the north east of the uk implying north westerly winds to swipe the uk with unusually cool and wet weather on the horizon. I hope that their barking up the wrong tree on this, but you never know.
It really does look like we are entering a Grand Minimum, I won't be here to see a return to "normal" summers. Today was like an October day, cold, windy and wet, and looks like a foretaste of what's to come. Given that the fast few Augusts have basically been early Autumn months I think we can post the obituaries for "Summer" 2015.
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From memory, the last summer I consider to be as abysmal as this one was 1962 - low pressure, constant rain and chilly winds. Summer 1963 was almost as bad but at least May '63 saw a two-week heatwave. Summer '63 did have a few isolated hot days. However there was a somewhat nasty filling in that particular sandwich.
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Now cleared from the South-west. Liverpool ATIS currently reporting 16C. Plenty of towering Cu in view but appear innocuous and without rain shadows. Light breeze F1
What has happened to cloudless days?
in Spring Weather Discussion
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How would anyone actually have any statistics? No photography back then so the only visual records are those captured by painters and other artists. Subjective and open to interpretation. Sadly, there's no real-life Tardis available. However I've formed the opinion over the past few years that we are entering a Grand Minimum - the evidence is there: increasingly shorter, cooler and definitely cloudier summers (taking into account my location). What I would describe as proper summer weather has increasingly been restricted to 2-3 weeks in July. for the past few years, while '14 saw the arrival of Big Bertha in August ushering in an early autumn. This year has seen NO summery weather here, even July has now joined June and May as mostly chilly, cloudy and windy as an October day. Good heavens, this year we even night frosts in July
. Now it looks like this August is a damp squib with the promised "hot spell" always remaining a couple of days in the future - "jam tomorrow". A lot our our unseasonal weather seems have been down to the jet stream being stuck in its "winter" position with the UK directly under it or even worse, to the north of a preternaturally south-shifted jet stream.
Yes, I may be guilty of pattern-matching but my job used to involve recognisation of patterns.