ICON:
GFS:
ICON always seems very keen to electrify everything, so a middle-ground between these two is probably nearer the mark
Either way it looks like the possibility of an overnight storm is dead-in-the-water - except for maybe Exeter through to Bournemouth, where initiation could possibly occur just before dawn.
There’s also the sobering possibility that too much capping could scupper development, and I’m wondering if this is another case of early weak thunderstorms stopping play, similar to a couple of weeks ago