Hocus Pocus
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The only engaging piece in all of that was the MetO video explaining the in's and outs of LRF, the rest was like a Hollywood script.
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I've followed you work for a number of years Roger and have found your forecasts to be never that far out in terms of pressure anomalies, are you seeing something similar to Dec 2010 in terms of HLB this time around? -
This is a fascinating subject matter but surely is it not just one piece of the jigsaw that is needed for HLB, I tend to look at the SST around Greenland and the Pacific coast of Alsaka for an idea of what we may expect over the coming winter months?
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16th September General Weather Chat
Hocus Pocus replied to The PIT's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Reached 21.2 c with humidity levels of 70%, a lovely Septembers day all in all. -
It's worrying rom a cold perspective that the GLOSEA model is picking up such a strong +NAO this early, I rate this model highly and even though it's early days if next months update follows the same path it certainly can't be ignored. With regards to nino it's looking like a fairly weak affair as it stands now, so how this effects the pattern upstream is anyones guess at this stage and I would think a set up like last year looks unlikely with a weak nino.
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North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)
Hocus Pocus replied to Derbyshire_snow's topic in Weather Around The World
Maybe that's what the MetO GLOSEA model is picking up on over this side of the pond for this winter. -
Nothing wrong in trying to assess what may happen though With regards too the QBO, when you look at previous analogues for these there are many conflicting outcomes when a -QBO has resulted in the opposite happening and vice versa. There are no guarantees in any teleconnections albeit a strong PV more or less means a poor winter for the UK if it's cold your looking for, though as SM highlighted a cold set up albeit not a prolonged one is still achievable.
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Im not into pattern matching or analogues but with the current set up regarding the PDO, solar activity appearing to drop again, and ENSO treading into weak nino territory would this not increase the odds of a colder than average winter?
