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Hocus Pocus

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Everything posted by Hocus Pocus

  1. Hocus Pocus
    Altitude 305m Lol. March was a fantastic month that year, but that's spring and was as rare as hens teeth.
  2. Hocus Pocus
    +1 Have to agree bar 78/79 February 96 and even the 96 one didn't stay around for more than three days, I'll take cold and snow in the latter part of this month, December and January and have an early spring come February. Now someone will recite 1947 as an example but that was as extreme as extreme can be.
  3. Hocus Pocus
    I have to agree until the MetO start showing something in their extended forecasts my feet will remain firmly planted on terra firma, lots of potential going forward for cold yes but that's all it is as of yet.
  4. Hocus Pocus
    1947 had moderate levels of soar activity and that didn't turn out to bad.
  5. Hocus Pocus
    This is generally the case when you have a negative PDO, the lack of ocean and atmospheric coupling. Sorry mods off topic.
  6. Hocus Pocus
    I've got this nagging doubt in the back of my mind that the long range models night be onto something for the majority of this winter and if we are to see any sustained cold then December may well be the month, more so with the projected wave activity occurring in the Stratosphere and subsequent warming on the Canadian side that may follow. Could we see a watered down version of December 2010 and then what followed thereafter?
  7. Hocus Pocus
    I've always found their forecasts to be pretty poor along with most others actually.
  8. Hocus Pocus
    Was it not 2009?
  9. Hocus Pocus
    I've spent years working/playing in the outdoors and it's the heat and humidity which are the hardest to combat, granted 21c with a light breeze is nirvana like but once the temps are approaching 25+ c then it becomes increasingly more uncomfortable and hard work, regardless of mother natures tap. On the flip side working in wet and cold is equally hard work, but dry and cold and in this country ( I've rarely experienced severe cold in the UK ) is also excellent and productive.
  10. Hocus Pocus
    The problem with the CFS is the wild swings that occur even taking into account the individual runs in isolation.
  11. Hocus Pocus
    A quick question regarding the GFS and ECM, would the consensus be that the ECMF has the better handle on Greenland or as I thought the GFS?
  12. Hocus Pocus
    Which analogue years would you be looking at, from my limited knowledge I would be looking at 76/77 as a good match?
  13. Hocus Pocus
    Well as constructive and informative forecasts go this one's not quite up there with the best.
  14. Hocus Pocus
    A slight change in the wording, gone is the little above average temps. Still looking predominately dry for large parts of England and Wales, certainly different to this time last year when the Atlantic fired up and just couldn't stop giving.
  15. Hocus Pocus
    Currently 18.0c and murky skies, very unlikely any records will be broken around here today.
  16. Hocus Pocus
    As others have said regardless of the duration of the potential Northerly it's still a pattern change to something more seasonal. Longer term the building blocks are slowly locking into place for something more interesting down the line but I feel that November will come in around average with neither mild or cold being able to dominate one particular pattern.
  17. Hocus Pocus
    Im no top dog in fact I'm not even in the kennels but I would take a punt at a more blocked pattern occurring mid January onwards.
  18. Hocus Pocus
    Thanks Jax.
  19. Hocus Pocus
    Indeed CC and just goes to show how many rolls of the dice are needed in order for things to land just right for the UK.
  20. Hocus Pocus
    Whatever this winter throws at us I thoroughly enjoyed this thread and it's workings that go into it, I just hope that we don't see silly posts classing it as a fad just because there's no snow IMBY. Good luck to all the OPI team for the future and thank you for sharing your work and thoughts with us all.
  21. Hocus Pocus
    But these same models were all going for Northern blocking for our little neck of the woods last year at this time and we all know how that turned out, of course we all know that Sod's law rules and they will be bang on the buck this year.
  22. Hocus Pocus
    Yes no arguments from me on this knocker and my main gripe was from two points, one being old school but realising the need for progress nonetheless and secondly it doesn't seem all that long ago when the last super computer was unveiled, though I'm getting on a bit and maybe it's my memory playing tricks on me.
  23. Hocus Pocus
    Whilst their can be no arguments as to the MetO's credentials at being thee finest it does seem strange that only a couple of years ago they spent a fortune upgrading their computers. Maybe I'm old fashioned but I still believe as good as computers are there's no substitute for experience.
  24. Hocus Pocus
    A few public service strikes thrown in for good measure and a 78/79 winter is within our grasp.
  25. Hocus Pocus
    Sums up my views nicely carinthian. I see an over reliance on computers and not enough old school metrology where human intuition and know how still surpasses technology. I think it's an awful amount to spend when the economy is already in dire straits, but that's another kettle of fish altogether. Will it be able to predict if it will snow IMBY though?
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