Borei
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Posts posted by Borei
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The GFS 6z ensembles illustrate that the ops run was on the mild side, and overall continue to show temperatures likely on the cold side of normal.
How that translates in actuality is another matter, but anyone thinking of switching to a hunt for early warmth is likely to be engaging in a chase even more futile than the long running hunt for cold.
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GFS 6z ensembles show a very distinct trend to early spring like conditions through day 10 plus.
This trend has gathered pace of the last day or so, and is of course completely contrary to other guidance, but hard to ignore given the notable failure of other guidance this winter in relation to northern blocking.
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1 hour ago, danm said:
Sorry, but I’ve got to pull you up on this.
Anyone’s disappointment with the potential collapse of this cold spell vs what the teleconnective signals were predicting is flawed. No one guaranteed the UK would see anything. The point was ALWAYS that a SSW, plus other favourable background signals, increased the probability of a UK cold spell, not guaranteed it.
Those same experts you refer to have also stated that micro scale features and spoilers can/could always result in the UK just missing out. If you temper your expectations then you wouldn’t feel the need to criticise those experts on here who have been largely bang on with the broad scale pattern changes we’ve seen.
This is called confirmation bias.
You have rationalised every outcome as being a vindication of 'experts'. When I look at MO I see a relative (not total) lack of northern blocking and a resurgence of an active although meridional jet. There is no proven causal link of current synoptics to the much vaunted tele-connective signals.
There's a danger here that the science is not challenged because confirmation bias leads to a complacency. I'd like to see a little more self critical analysis by 'experts' of what has gone wrong. Why has the trop response not been forthcoming, or been so delayed, or even just been rather minimal?
Because something has gone wrong this winter, and there's no point in pretending it hasn't.
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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I'd watch the 1st week of Feb for the next real good cold shot potential. Maybe more snowy than severely cold looking at the trends thus far I've seen, but get the jet to the south and some form of northern blocking and the rest will come in time.
But as BA said, look at the broad trends, today they have been more and more towards blocking getting going around 300hrs.
The next potential has been at 300 hours for over a month.
Personally I believe neither the models beyond 144 nor those who tell us about tele-connected led macro events.
The truth seems to be that our understanding of atmospheric science is still a long way from being able to predict very much into the future.
Thus isn't a plague on 'experts' it's just a reality check. The MO thread is a testament to exaggerated claims and eventual frustration.
Model output have evolved over the last 24 hours to a much less favorable outlook for U.K. cold. It may change again ........ and that's the point. It constantly illustrates the limitations of human understanding. We all need to re-connect with this reality in our attitude towards what is shown in MO.
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The elephant in the room:
Confirmation bias.
If there is a cold spell it will be attributed to teleconnections and SSW.
If there isn't it will be attributed to the fact that SSWs do not guarantee UK cold.
But there will be no causal analysis. It will be taken as a given.
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5 minutes ago, KTtom said:
GFS has found some consistancy with a wedge of high pressure to the west and a stalling pattern around 18th...the recent 00z is a big improvement on yesterday's..
As Jules says above, IF we don't get a blocking pattern somewhere over or near to us late Jan and the ecm day 10 pattern persists then it's certainly back to the drawing board regarding teleconnections!
Yes, we've heard about teleconnections for weeks now. The so called 'experts' have talked about the incredibly positive background signals, although they have also pointed out that they don't necessarily guaranteee UK cold.
Indeed, presumably it's possible we could end up with unusual warmth?
The problem for me is that none of the NWP output shows anything particularly unusual, and we're looking now up to 3 weeks past SSW beginning.
There is I think an irrational and almost religious obsession with teleconnections among some. But I suspect that our understanding of such is probably relatively immature in scientific terms, and I say that with full respect to those involved in researching this. But I think that this winter is painfully exposing the limits of our understanding.
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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
You are talking more micro whereas the pattern is macro. Whether we get low cloud or clear skies, we are still under a blocking high
Yes, and the job of BBC forecasts is to predict at the micro level. They failed and that's the point.
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On 30/12/2018 at 17:45, Law of averages!! said:
If it's true they are thinking of stopping daylight saving, AGAIN?? Does no one remember the early 70s when they did it... and it didn't work!! So WHY should it now, just a thought
Ps I was about 6 or 7 at the time, so that would be 72/73... they did it stop accidents at school time ( starting time/finishing time ) it actually created more accidents, if those who remember, remember it
The European Commission undertook a public consultation last year about stopping all clock changes. Public opinion was overwhelmingly in favour of remaining on a single time zone year round (although over 80% of responses were from Germany). The Commussion believes that clock changes damage human health.
So the Commission told EU states that it wanted to stop clock changes from October 2019, and states needed to decide what time zone they wanted to be on permanently.
EU states have however pushed back, asking for more time to consult and decide. Consequently the Commission's plans to stop clock changes are on hold, at least until 2020.
The UK government has however said that it has no plans to stop changing clocks, and outside the EU the Commission has no jurisdiction over UK time.
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Since I'll be accused of negativity if I post in the Hunt for Cold thread I've turned to here if you don't mind.
The fact is that neither the GFS nor EC ensembles show anything resembling a winter nirvana. That whole thread is more about what isn't showing in the models but might in future than it is about model discussion.
If people are supposed to get excited over cherry picked charts from one ens member at 360 then so be it. But it looks to me as though the 'expert' group think is that SSW willl deliver something in the future, so any suggestion to the contrary is not permitted even if the models do not actually show anything at trop level which would deliver a snowflake.
Am I alone in this frustration?
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Just now, Ed Stone said:
Isn't January 15th the first day of the third week, anyway???
Yes. The wording suggests the 'change' is during the third week (which is 15th- 21st).
Effectively therefore the colder weather is now due during the last third of January.
The wording is being manipulated over time to reflect to delay in the cold weather. Or to put it another way, the forecasts reflected a month ago have not verified.
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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
This 06z op seems a reasonable call based on current mean guidance ........that doesn’t mean I think it will be right but it’s certainly one of gfs’s better offerings given the background modelling
It ends with no northern or even mid lat blocking in sight, and a seemingly increasingly well formed polar vortex.
This is the exact opposite of what the tele-connections brigade have been forecasting for a seeming eternity.
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22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
It all goes pear shaped quickly upstream . Not enough phasing with the two jets and flatter than last night . The ECM is atrocious .
The rest are hardly inspiring . We’ve hit the wall this morning !
The wait continues .......
Yes.
I think what is most annoying is that not just is the trop modelling not indicating any change to the long promised cold, it's actually moving in the opposite direction to high level blocking.
There is I think a certain over-confidence among some, including the Met O, about their knowledge of atmospheric modelling and the eventual impact on surface weather.
If this long promised cold spell fails to materialise, then I hope it will prompt a re-consideration of what we do (and do not) understand about the atmosphere. Because this will amount to another of the MetO's disastrous but seminal 'barbecue summer' longer range forecasts ....... an embarrassing bust.
Now of course it might still be that eventually something happens. But we're getting to the stage where we're in broken clock territory, and if we do ever get a meaningful cold spell we will have no idea whether it's due to SSW or not (although no doubt self- appointed teleconnections experts will claim it as due to SSW no matter what).
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There's little point in pretending that the Met O have not pushed back the start of the potential cold. We can see this in black and white by simple time comparison.
It is what it is .......... a forecast which may, or may not, be accurate. But let's not kid ourselves that the MetO have some mystical and un-failingly reliable insight into what will actually transpire.
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1 hour ago, Minnizi said:
The thread is hunt for cold, which is what ppl are doing with op's if they didnt there wouldnt be no thread
I accept that, but unrealistic interpretation of the model output does not make cold happen, and serves only to mis-lead and disappoint.
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I've read pages and pages of hope-casting and analysis about how much better the output is, occasionally how it's now showing the down-welling effects of SSW, and why (although it's still fairly zonal) that's just because of model bias.
Yet, on a rational basis, there are still very few signs of northern blocking. It's just not there on current output.
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4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
Wow! Here comes the heights!? This is a massive change!
What exactly are you seeing?
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5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
The beeb one i was looking at..
220m ...you should get a decent dollop...
Ps the apps are hit n miss at this range tho..
Okay thanks NWS.
I think local knowledge and experience is often a better guide than an app.
Out of interest, did anyone west of M6 get anything worthwhile out of December?
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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Think altitude is a big player...app saying sleet and snow here until fri then dry and very cold..
Whats your altitude..:)
Which app NWS?
I live near Burnley at 220m.
My Meto app says rain too, apart from sleet on Tuesday night.
I usually ignore it though because it's really really poor in my experience.
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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:
Annoying but at least you can go buy a pint of milk in the UK without getting your head blown off!
They can keep their bomb cyclones and frigid air, we’ll keep our safer streets and civilized society here in Europe!
Wonder where the greatest risk of being killed by a terrorist lies? In 'civilised' Europe or Alabama?
Anyway, the problem with the block being too Far East is one we've seen played out numerous times before. The UK ends up in mildish dross with depressions running into the block and becoming slow moving near or to our west.
Plus we'll still have to listen to micro analysis of how the block is 25 miles further west and the GFS is 'correcting' to the ECM/UKMO/ GEM (depending on which is favoured today).
Roll on the far away block getting even further away.
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Not often driven to post here, but I see a lot of commentary which doesn't fit the evidential body.
Although ECM and GEM ops runs consistently churn out a Scandi high of some form which adverts cold upper air, we know from clusters that ECM is split.
The GFS suite by contrast virtually unanimously rejects the ECM op offerings, as do MetO, as do many ECM ensemble members.
It seems to me that some people have been heavily and irrationally influenced by certain ops runs, probably because they show what we want to see.
Consequently every GFS run is dismissed as faulty, or moving to ECM. This has been the story for days.
ECM and GEM ops may be right of course, but it seems to me most likely, based on the body of evidence, that they'll be wrong and we'll end up with a form of GFS sinking high to the south east.
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
EPS extended just about as bad as it gets.
A descriptive narrative really would be helpful please.
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GFS, in FI, is consistently showing high pressure building to our south and south east - a veritable winter killer.
This is consistent with the MetO long ranger.
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Unfortunately there is a euro high on the way...it looks hopeless.
:-(
It doesn't look 'hopeless' for cold zonality, although I agree that meaningful Atlantic ridging is extremely unlikely.
The EC run looks consistent with much current output, specifically a very mobile westerly pattern with spells of Tm and Pm air, potentially stormy and wet at times. But with the jet set to be fairly far south at times, flattening the Euro high, we're a long way from some of the truly awful winters with dominant high pressure stretched all the way from the Azores through to eastern Europe.
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34 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:
I remember last year's glosea blocking forecasts ?
I think, to be fair, that there was extensive blocking, although not quite as far enough north as we may have anticipated.
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
This is where grammar and punctuation are crucial. Your words could mean two completely opposite sentiments, and I have no idea which.
Please clarify.