Summer Snow

Ties in with the latest EC46 released on Thursday ...... hopefully we see at least one spell of cold wintry weather before Spring arrives.

ECM Day 10 Groundhog day - at least in the movie there was a snowstorm on the way.....in reality for us, it is more of the same with high pressure seemingly glued to our shores for the foreseeable....

Interesting....this model never bought in to the failed pre Xmas cold spell and proved correct.....and has performed well since then also.....might be on to something hopefully

Yes very amplified and continuing to show two fingers to ECM and GEM which both want the high pressure to collapse at this stage with Atlantic taking over....

Yes and with November being an Autumn month it means that amazingly we have had no named storms this winter, which we are now half way through..... With charts like this shown for the foreseeable, it looks like that won't change anytime soon.....

Some mega blocked cold ensemble members in this 18z suite... . This number 4 is the pick of the bunch but quite a number of cold runs in there .....Best set in a while and some showing favourable changes in the 192-240 timeframe .... hopefully we see further upgrades tomorrow

At this stage I think most of us would take a week or so of cold snowy weather in Feb even if the rest of the month was mild.......been a hard slog this winter..... keeping an eye though on height rises to our northeast which I still think might be the best chance for pattern to evolve to something Colder......seems a very slow moving pattern at present so perhaps if we can get blocking to amplify more favourably, we may see a more prolonged cold spell in due course....plenty of time yet for things to turn in our favour......

Might be our way out of current set up to a colder pattern......some of the 0z GEFS and 0z op hinted at this earlier....once the pattern remains amplified we have a chance of things falling more favourably further down the line.....hopefully ecm jumps on board over coming runs as currently it is hinting at high gradually sinking southeast in later frames which would leave us in a very poor position heading in to end of Jan / Last month of winter proper

Been watching GFS building high pressure to far northeast over last few runs.....if this becomes a growing trend,it could help push the pattern further West in time perhaps?

This high pressure with mild upper air has now drawn in a lot of cloud here in the southeast.... Was -1c yesterday morning and frosty but once sun got going the temp quickly shot up to 10 degrees Was -1c again last night when going to bed at 11.30pm and it was white and frosty again. Woke up this morning and its 5c and cloudy with frost long cleared....no sign of any fog that was forecast, just cloudy skies Once Cloud gets trapped under these areas of high pressure in winter it is hard to shift so I expect rest of the week to be murky and cloudy... yuk. At least it will be mainly dry but no sign of proper winter cold and snow any time soon..... PS...I was driving yesterday morning to North Tipperary with work and it was amazing how the temperatures fluctuated between the valleys and hiller areas....one minute I would be driving through a frosty landscape in temp of 0 c and few minutes later it would be 6c or 7c in a hiller area and frost free..... with temp fluctuating like this throughout my journey in clear blue skies.....

GFS has history of churning out a solution at 10-15 days, dropping it in mid range, and then picking it up again in shorter range....the very cold charts GFS was regularly churning out last week for around 17th Jan were based on the same / similar evolution we see today on 6z at just 6 days away. . for that reason it may be on to something .......Jan 2013 we saw a sudden flip to cold at 5-6 days range.....we are over due another cold flip......especially after the flip to mild just before Xmas.....funnily enough in Dec 2012 we had what looked like a nailed on cold spell dashed at close range also before that sudden flip to cold in mid Jan 2013........eerily similar On the other hand 6z could just be a rogue run but it certainly generates extra interest in today's 12z runs for sure....

GEM agrees. ECM says no ....... lots to be resolved methinks

Yes was looking back at charts from last years early Jan cold spell when we had winds from the north and the east.......af face value charts look excellent but the 850hpa temps were pathetic..... much better cold to tap in to this year....

If GFS charts are correct then yes likely to be a frosty high for the most part....GFS in this run again showing sub zero temps most nights next week.....if ECM is correct with high centred more to our south west then it is likely to be mild cloudy high

Had a light covering of snow here also last night.....has been quite a wintry week which did not look likely during new year period when temps were up to 14 degrees...... We had snow falling for about three hours Monday night from 10.30pm despite temp being 9 degrees at 6pm......likewise yesterday morning temp was 8 degrees and we had snow showers last night.... a few lovely frosty nights in between with blue clear skies by day.....not a bad week considering