The Weather Watcher
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Here's a photo from March 2013, from Craigantlet hills. Look at those drifts lol. 10ft in places.
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14 minutes ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:
Boards.ie is even worse, stopped reading it. The Met office warning for East of UK up until 23.55 Tuesday mentions accumulations of 0-2cm, with potential for 5 to 10cm locally.
Yeah. Pressure is a bit high and doesn't begin to drop until later Tuesday, so precipitation is really limited up until then. I'm remaining dubious of any snowfall atm. It wouldn't take much of a shift for everything to go a bit wonky. Its still 5 days away, subtle changes can make huge differences, even for those in Eastern and Southern mainland.
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Currently looks like any precipitation begins to arrive around Late Tuesday/Early Wednesday. Hopefully start to see this come closer in the charts now and not get moved back.
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32 minutes ago, gingercat said:
I think they are trying to say that although it will be cold, we aren’t going to see any snow.
Certainly plausible, especially so up to late Thursday into Friday next week. Pressure remains above 1020mb until then so snow is reliant on convection in the Irish sea pushing well inland. Its best to get the cold in first, surprises could pop up on the short range for snow potential.
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It's best to worry about precipitation 24 hours out. When those colder uppers push in things will change.
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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:
Agreed. This is far from a done deal in terms of deep cold. If we start to see more ensembles showing differing evolutions then we need to take note. I’d say 50% chance of deep cold next week. The other issue is that the transition to deep cold is creeping into the reliable frame now, and that’s when things often get watered down. I’m not saying it will, but it can’t be discounted.
It's clearly more than a 50% chance. That is literally a coin toss, which in forecasting terms is a pointless forecast. The ensembles show clearly what the chances are and with 70% or more clustered for deep cold, shouldn't the chances be thus?
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Hopefully get the chance to film the great sledge race version 2 (2010), yes that's me and my inner child in the Velux hat lol.
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Models look great this morning for a decent (exceptional) cold spell, ECM slowest to bring the cold enough uppers in but only by 2 days (Tuesday).
They are scary charts. Especially the snow risk charts. Schools could get closed here for a week if not more.
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1 hour ago, Bottled Snow said:
Yes some snow showers via pm air looks likely tonight in to tomorrow in places....however after almost 3 months of these rather frequent pm incursions, (which I have enjoyed immensly) this looks like being the last for some time, possibly for rest of winter , with the atmospheric conditions realigning significantly over coming days starting with a build of high pressure from the south this weekend, and then leading to some form of easterly / northeasterly during next week to ten days or so. This new pattern with more northerly blocking, once established , could take hold well in to spring based on current thinking. Whether this leads to snowmagedon or something more benign remains to be seen but a big change in our weather pattern which has been stuck on repeat for last few months, now seems fairly certain......
I'm inclined to say the benign sort of spell seems more likely, but things are still not clear and probably won't be until the latter stages of this week as to whether the SSW is going to impact our weather or any HLB easily being shifted by a quick movement/rebuilt of the PV over Greenland.
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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Good to see you back Watcher, hopefully in time for an epic Easterly.
Hopefully, I am of course still on the fence for that one, especially in regards to it being potent enough for not just an Eastern Mainland event. It's all dependant on where exactly this HP decides to set-up. Don't want it too close for comfort. This week will be one big rollercoaster for those latching on to every model run.
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31 minutes ago, Baltic Regions said:
Hey Watcher! Long time and all that jazz.
Hey Baltic. I'm always lurking around seeing whats happening. Between having pool games, pipe band, the little minion and work I hardly get time to contribute much.
Hoping to catch just a good heavy bout of snow. If only they'd fix the lampost outside my house. haha
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Those in the West and Donegal, keep us all updated on its transition to the wintry stuff.
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Checked radar 30 mins ago, had to check for lightning too, such intense echos in places. Pity it wasn't all snow, we'd be buried.
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Absolutely nothing here, don't look like seeing any showers today either. Have a nice view of the train of showers heading for the Isle of Mann though.They look heavy.
The downfall of living on the East coast on a day like today. Oh well, plenty of chances coming up.
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Been a while since I've seen a snow shower, must have been more than 2 years. Hopefully more to follow, get that surface and ground temperature tumbling.
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I'm sensing a stonking winter in the wings. Good PV displacement coming up. Eyes to the skies/lamposts this weekend.
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1 minute ago, Pomeroysnow said:
Good to see you back Watcher
I've always been Watching, so to speak. My morning begins with a cuppa and the model output.
Good to see some other snow chances coming up next week and the possibility of more ridging into Greenland.
Winter could have a sting in its tail alright. Memories of the March 6ft drifts coming back from a few years ago.
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6 minutes ago, Jeztec said:
Don't think Cecilia from the beb is a big fan of cold and snow, as she's just mentioned it will be turning MILDER 6 times on her lastest forecast!
Anyway.....it's been snowing here quite heavily on and off all morning but its just not settling.
I work with her partner, don't think she has a bias.
Snow showers here every 45 minutes or so, was lying early this morning on roofs etc, nothing lying now though.
It is good snow though, you can tell by the way it floats about in the wind. Snow goes up, then comes down.
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NI weather suggesting high risk of thunderstorms for Eastern NI later, however I am dubious. High convective inhibition suggests anything will be isolated and may just be a heavy shower at most.
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Just after a very hefty sno shower here, went very dark then all of a sudden bright white outside due to it beginning to lye. Stopped now and melted again but heaviest snow shower since 2010.
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North and West will fare better Wednesday/Thursday, North and East fare best weekend in the Northerly/Northeasterly flow. Higher pressure nudging closer by the weekend I'd imagine so the showers becoming less frequent in the West. I haven't looked at the charts yet but judging from where the flow is and the chart I seen of the Northerly on BBC weather that's my thought. Haven't had any real lying snow in Bangor this winter apart from a very light dusting last week, but hopefully will get to see at least a heavy snow shower at night/evening,
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MattHugo81
@chionomaniac - Just looked through 00Z EC Clusters and not a whiff of any N blocking yet it's a zonal +AO & esp +NAO pattern throughout.
^^^Despite the warming in the strat the ECM trop output shows no sign of a quick response. The GEFS are also similar apart from the odd one. Caution on the strat thread as well as wave 2 warming is probably not ideal for a full SSW (at the moment): https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-48
Even with very good warming events it does appear that the strat to trop relationship is never as straight forward as you hope.
ECM, GEM and GFS mean at D10:
gens-21-1-240 (3).png gens-21-1-240 (2).png EDM1-240 (3).gifAs expected good agreement.
Well, the strat to trop relationship wasn't always 100% but it's still early to be expecting Split Vortices and HLB forecasted in abundance. The models don't look promising, but that can change very quickly.
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Space station just passed by. Told the 6 year old foster sister it was Santa, she seemed a little sceptical though. So proud, I'll turn her into a scientist yet!
Haha, reminds me of my wee one, I get her to tell her primary teachers lots of facts about stars, the sun and moon and physics. She tricked me with a lollipop stick last time, getting it to stand on end by snapping it. So this year I got santa to bring her a star projector for her bedroom, a pond that grows prehistoric like bacteria/fish and a spinning globe of the earth, of course amongst all the normal childrens toys, can't take away all the fun.
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More like a mirror image shift of any snow risk, swiftly changed from the North and West to the South and East. It has added other options to the root for cold, but these kind of set-ups are the longest wait for us. Well worth it though if potent enough Easterly flow. That sausage high is probably the best example I have yet seen of the murr legend.
Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Everytime I see him, my head imagines him pulling the finger at me.