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weathercold

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    Model banter and emotions

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     nick sussex Absolutely- this winter is a total bust.

    It’s a bust for all those pre winter seasonals, it’s a bust for all those background drivers, and it’s a bust for those wholly inaccurate Ec46 forecasts which have proven so poor.

    I genuinely can’t recall a winter which has delivered so badly with so much pre winter hype attached to it.

    I feel this winter is a real eye opener though, with an EQBO on our side as well as a couple of other noted drivers, we have still had another bust of a winter season. Makes you think - can we really ever achieve a real ‘winter’ here in the UK (widely). 
     

    Today’s model output has to make you laugh it’s as though we are being punished for wanting cold and snow - there is no chance of anything wintry across most of lowland Britain after a brief non event tomorrow for most.

    Eagerly now looking at the output hoping for some early warmth into March- too much to ask for after a bust winter?

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1

    Model banter and emotions

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Charts this morning are as sobering as they get if cold and snow is your thing.

    You would be a brave person to call Feb anything but mild right now.

    Winter 23/24 going out without a wintry fight? 
     

    Another epic forecasting bust likely based on some of the early season predictions by many of the experts/pro’s.

    • Like 5

    Model banter and emotions

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Let’s not dress this up - we are staring down the barrel at seeing out Jan mild to exceptionally mild and then we hit Feb.

    This winter thus far for most has been non existent if cold and snow is your thing. We have had a cold 5 days in London (wow wow mid winter), temps above freezing and not a flake of snow. Remember- we chased this week for many weeks - epic fail. Other areas have had a cold week too a little snow, nothing major.

    When you consider Dec was a totally blank winter month, and now we are looking to Feb as the last throw of those dice …we are in desperate territory now.  Zero signal for cold into Feb currently with the vortex right where we don’t want it.

    Considering all the hype by some posters on here and some pro’s this winter is proving to be a total fail based on those wintry predictions.

    For all those background signals going into winter it’s counted for very little. I fully expect Feb to come in above average temp wise and then we look to early spring for some warmth …let’s hope. 
     

    Some will label this post downbeat, it’s realism to me. This winter is a bust sadly…added to a long long list spanning many years. Let’s hope 24/25 will change that run. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    One for those with historical knowledge- has there been a winter in the last 30 years which has had so much going for it in terms of background signals heading into winter which has developed as uneventful and non-descript as this? Granted we still have Feb but by mid month winter starts to reduce its impact as we can finally look forward to spring.

    Feels like this winter has been a real lesson in that background signals can be as rosey and favourable as possible but it means diddly squat for our tiny island in reality. 

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    It wasn’t a comment about teleconnections.  While not infallible, on this occasion they did what it says on the tin, I agree about that.  (The models, however, did overegg the blocking massively as this came into view which was an issue.)  

    It is clear to anyone who has followed this winter chase for any number of years, that even with the right signals, it has become virtually impossible to get setups for significant snow in winter in southern UK.  Apart from a few inches in December 2020, there has been no cold and snowy period since 2018 (does that even count as it was in the spring?).  Changing climate seems to have done much more than increase average temperatures a bit, it also seems to have massively reduced decent patterns and altered patterns that once delivered into ones that don’t.  This year promised decent patterns and has flattered to deceive so far.  It may be many years before we get similarly favourable signals going into winter again.

    Very much agree - so much was on our side going into this winter but the reality has been one that has to date been totally non descript. December washout and mild, record breaking Xmas mild. Jan - nothing to date, a few chilly days next week and then mild for the rest of Jan.

    Feb- you’d be a brave man to predict a cold and wintry Feb and with the sun stronger and the clock ticking once it’ gets to mid Feb Spring starts showing its hand and conditions need to be almost perfect to deliver snowy scenes across across all but Scotland. A sobering winter so far…AGW eh.

    • Like 6

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weathercold

    I think this must go down as one of the biggest epic busts in NW history.

    Thinking back only two weeks ago to some extremely exciting Greenland blocking projections with scope for bitter cold and snow until late Jan and into Feb, often with rock solid ensembles.

    We’ve been patient after all, a crud half winter, washout December, record breaking mild Xmas….all leading to mid Jan and the epic cold spell.

    Historic…epic …coldest since 2018…the list of superlatives were endless.

    As the ‘cold spell’ ticked down two days before the magic 15th date - booom it all fell apart. No snow for most, temps above freezing for most (in bleak mid winter),  next week is a total blink, non descript chilly few days.

    You have to laugh - we’ve chased this for 2 weeks and fallen at the final hurdle.

    To compound matters the models are about as bad as they could look for late Jan and into Feb, supported across the model suite and backed up beautifully by the E46.

    I don’t think many of us could have predicted this - what’ an epic bust.

    Personally now looking forward to spring, longer days and warmer with hopefully sunny days too. Winter 23/24 another joke of a ‘winter’.

    Ticking down nicely to Spring, not that far away 😎

    • Like 6
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

    There’s no two ways about it really, this is a poor set from the EPS. 

    IMG_4393.thumb.png.4536231ae10680bd1a6c76872555e755.png

    The wheels have been falling off for days now. There is absolutely no deep freeze likely sadly. Expected a few chilly days especially down south with temps above freezing by day. No sustainable high lat blocking… from where we were under a week ago this is another failed chase sadly.

    Hopefully one will come to pass before winter is over.

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A clear backward trend today to anything sustainable re cold /snowy conditions, of that there is no doubt.

    When you look back at the rock solid ensembles and models from a week ago and now look at where we are at, it’s sobering to see we have really taken a significant step back here. Deep down I always suspected we would, the UK doesn’t really do bitter cold snowy spells for any length of time, rarely anyway. Tough to take this but I suspect the ship is sailing fast ….in the wrong direction sadly.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Not very good at all? I’m genuinely astonished anyone can say that chart isn’t good… if you’re expecting 1963 charts at that stage then yes it’s not very good but if we got to that stage above on the 14th January I would be very happy with that.

    It’s all relative, not very good… I could post several NH profiles that are not very good and that’s definitely not one.

    Disagree - in terms of recent days projections for the 15th it’s poor. No question.

    It many not be poor comparable to recent crud winters but in terms of where many folk hoped to be week after next - it’s poor.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Wouldn't call it a shocker.I think last 2 frames will be decent..or not this is a real struggle to get the cold down south..it's not coming forward is it..always day 10 onwards

    It’s really poor v a few days back no question at all. Major downgrade.

    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Very very sobering indeed!!!!i mentioned the danger of this and so did crewecold earlier on!!changes are not over yet though so i think we need to start fresh tomorrow and see if we can turn this around!!!i believe we still can!!!!

    Can clearly see a major backwards trend over last 24 hrs. GFS first and now ECM. 

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It’s worth noting Marco (UK Met) alluded to models overdoing Greenland blocking. Have we seen this over recent days - leading us up the garden path possibly. Are recent gfs runs more realistic as to where we are heading.

    With so much potential on offer I think this fail if indeed we see one will hurt more than any other. The lack of ‘pro’s’ Onboard is concerning.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I can’t keep up with this thread this afternoon so many posts so quickly, what a great forum, best around.

    I mentioned yesterday we were on the cusp of something potentially historic (these types of charts for cold fans are so rare). Just take this in, take a step back and just enjoy these projections. I’ll tell you this - for any newbies - it doesn’t get much better. IF these land we are on the cusp of something seriously special.

    Those dice are rolling ….

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    A couple of facts

    1 - The Easterly continues to dilute

    2 - The Greenland height rises now happen day 12, not day 10. That's deep FI.

    3 - The Greenland height rises are weaker than previous run.

    In general all good but the operational run is not as good as 12z. Fine margins.

    And to add balance the Mean is still very good, if not better so maybe the op just an outlier

    Think it will be on the warmer side of the pack. Not really investing much thought into the small window easterly saga. 14th/15th has consistently remained the landing zone, steady as she goes…

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Some of the posts on here tonight are simply mind boggling. If these are ‘poor’ charts on the 18z and you’re a cold weather fan it’s time to find another hobby. The potential route we are finding ourselves on is as a rare as anything in many a year, potentially historic if our dice falls favourably. Some need to take a step back before posting these OTT, unhelpful one liners.

    • Like 30
    • Thanks 1
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