weathercold

nick sussex Absolutely- this winter is a total bust. It’s a bust for all those pre winter seasonals, it’s a bust for all those background drivers, and it’s a bust for those wholly inaccurate Ec46 forecasts which have proven so poor. I genuinely can’t recall a winter which has delivered so badly with so much pre winter hype attached to it. I feel this winter is a real eye opener though, with an EQBO on our side as well as a couple of other noted drivers, we have still had another bust of a winter season. Makes you think - can we really ever achieve a real ‘winter’ here in the UK (widely). Today’s model output has to make you laugh it’s as though we are being punished for wanting cold and snow - there is no chance of anything wintry across most of lowland Britain after a brief non event tomorrow for most. Eagerly now looking at the output hoping for some early warmth into March- too much to ask for after a bust winter?

Charts this morning are as sobering as they get if cold and snow is your thing. You would be a brave person to call Feb anything but mild right now. Winter 23/24 going out without a wintry fight? Another epic forecasting bust likely based on some of the early season predictions by many of the experts/pro’s.

Let’s not dress this up - we are staring down the barrel at seeing out Jan mild to exceptionally mild and then we hit Feb. This winter thus far for most has been non existent if cold and snow is your thing. We have had a cold 5 days in London (wow wow mid winter), temps above freezing and not a flake of snow. Remember- we chased this week for many weeks - epic fail. Other areas have had a cold week too a little snow, nothing major. When you consider Dec was a totally blank winter month, and now we are looking to Feb as the last throw of those dice …we are in desperate territory now. Zero signal for cold into Feb currently with the vortex right where we don’t want it. Considering all the hype by some posters on here and some pro’s this winter is proving to be a total fail based on those wintry predictions. For all those background signals going into winter it’s counted for very little. I fully expect Feb to come in above average temp wise and then we look to early spring for some warmth …let’s hope. Some will label this post downbeat, it’s realism to me. This winter is a bust sadly…added to a long long list spanning many years. Let’s hope 24/25 will change that run.

One for those with historical knowledge- has there been a winter in the last 30 years which has had so much going for it in terms of background signals heading into winter which has developed as uneventful and non-descript as this? Granted we still have Feb but by mid month winter starts to reduce its impact as we can finally look forward to spring. Feels like this winter has been a real lesson in that background signals can be as rosey and favourable as possible but it means diddly squat for our tiny island in reality.

Very much agree - so much was on our side going into this winter but the reality has been one that has to date been totally non descript. December washout and mild, record breaking Xmas mild. Jan - nothing to date, a few chilly days next week and then mild for the rest of Jan. Feb- you’d be a brave man to predict a cold and wintry Feb and with the sun stronger and the clock ticking once it’ gets to mid Feb Spring starts showing its hand and conditions need to be almost perfect to deliver snowy scenes across across all but Scotland. A sobering winter so far…AGW eh.

You can’t write it…gosh they are grim.

I think this must go down as one of the biggest epic busts in NW history. Thinking back only two weeks ago to some extremely exciting Greenland blocking projections with scope for bitter cold and snow until late Jan and into Feb, often with rock solid ensembles. We’ve been patient after all, a crud half winter, washout December, record breaking mild Xmas….all leading to mid Jan and the epic cold spell. Historic…epic …coldest since 2018…the list of superlatives were endless. As the ‘cold spell’ ticked down two days before the magic 15th date - booom it all fell apart. No snow for most, temps above freezing for most (in bleak mid winter), next week is a total blink, non descript chilly few days. You have to laugh - we’ve chased this for 2 weeks and fallen at the final hurdle. To compound matters the models are about as bad as they could look for late Jan and into Feb, supported across the model suite and backed up beautifully by the E46. I don’t think many of us could have predicted this - what’ an epic bust. Personally now looking forward to spring, longer days and warmer with hopefully sunny days too. Winter 23/24 another joke of a ‘winter’. Ticking down nicely to Spring, not that far away

Today’s charts are a sobering reminder to not get carried away with wintry nirvana charts circa 2 weeks in advance. For those based in England, Wales and Ireland it almost aways ends in a damp squib…. And today has confirmed just that. After a chilly week the pv looks like moving over to the Canadian side, it’s a long slog from there.

Wow! That’s some turnaround- long way back for winter from there.

The difference around Greenland v ecm is a real eye opener, v interesting

Goodness me - this chase is ageing me! Please be right!!

The wheels have been falling off for days now. There is absolutely no deep freeze likely sadly. Expected a few chilly days especially down south with temps above freezing by day. No sustainable high lat blocking… from where we were under a week ago this is another failed chase sadly. Hopefully one will come to pass before winter is over.

A clear backward trend today to anything sustainable re cold /snowy conditions, of that there is no doubt. When you look back at the rock solid ensembles and models from a week ago and now look at where we are at, it’s sobering to see we have really taken a significant step back here. Deep down I always suspected we would, the UK doesn’t really do bitter cold snowy spells for any length of time, rarely anyway. Tough to take this but I suspect the ship is sailing fast ….in the wrong direction sadly.

Let’s hope so!

Disagree - in terms of recent days projections for the 15th it’s poor. No question. It many not be poor comparable to recent crud winters but in terms of where many folk hoped to be week after next - it’s poor.

It’s really poor v a few days back no question at all. Major downgrade. Can clearly see a major backwards trend over last 24 hrs. GFS first and now ECM.

The wheels are falling off here…fast! IF ECM is correct of course. Not good at all.

Not great - mid block there

It’s worth noting Marco (UK Met) alluded to models overdoing Greenland blocking. Have we seen this over recent days - leading us up the garden path possibly. Are recent gfs runs more realistic as to where we are heading. With so much potential on offer I think this fail if indeed we see one will hurt more than any other. The lack of ‘pro’s’ Onboard is concerning.

I can’t keep up with this thread this afternoon so many posts so quickly, what a great forum, best around. I mentioned yesterday we were on the cusp of something potentially historic (these types of charts for cold fans are so rare). Just take this in, take a step back and just enjoy these projections. I’ll tell you this - for any newbies - it doesn’t get much better. IF these land we are on the cusp of something seriously special. Those dice are rolling ….

Think it will be on the warmer side of the pack. Not really investing much thought into the small window easterly saga. 14th/15th has consistently remained the landing zone, steady as she goes…

Some of the posts on here tonight are simply mind boggling. If these are ‘poor’ charts on the 18z and you’re a cold weather fan it’s time to find another hobby. The potential route we are finding ourselves on is as a rare as anything in many a year, potentially historic if our dice falls favourably. Some need to take a step back before posting these OTT, unhelpful one liners.

Chasing rainbows sadly - it’s fairly evident where we are ending up here. No wintry nirvana than many are after.

Happy New Year all! It’s all a bit meh on the model front- no deep freeze - no snow likely and a high sitting over us. This is now peak winter and we are wasting away the days with v mundane, non descript weather. Roll on summer!

Based solely on the 6z we are so close to something exceptional we just can’t seem to trigger momentum to fall in place. There is no disputing the ingredients are there for something memorable but we need luck…will the dice fall.