weathercold

I guess if we compare temps with average for Jan we are close to average UK wide. Almost end of Jan and not seen a day temp below 4/5 degrees.

You simply cannot dress these charts up, absolutely awful for cold and snow. The writing has been on the wall for some weeks now. The latest models only reaffirm initial thoughts. Jan has been a write off for some time, Feb looks equally bleak to me. I don’t see an SSW likely. The current high has eaten away the heart of winter. It’s just one of those years I’m afraid. Hopefully 2022/3 will be our winter.

Appreciate some crave snow but to have at least 7-10 days of dry weather and at times sunny isn’t a bad alternative. Big tick in the box if wintry nirvana isn’t on offer. With Jan now closed for anything other than a continuation of what we have currently we move to Feb. Thinking back to all those pre winter discussions on how so many key drivers were in play to our advantage…I do agree it’s a huge kick in the teeth to be talking about a final winter month with many hoping to see their first snowflake. Personally I’m expecting an above average final winter month and then we can finally look to spring. Until then get out there if you can and enjoy some fine mid winter weather…-almost spring like

Not long until spring now - keep the faith! In a month and a bit time we can start chasing warmer weather…can’t come soon enough after this sorry excuse for a winter.

No wonder there are a lack of comments following the 0z runs -abysmal for wintry prospects. Clock ticking down now to the end of Jan in sight. I mentioned a few weeks back I felt Jan was a bust and it’s playing out that way. We can safely close the case on Jan prospects so we now look to Feb. Current thoughts are nothing significant wintry wise (deep freeze), would love to be wrong.

Freeze - like the old winters Snow …

Garden and path seems apt to describe the models this winter - as quickly as they give they take away. Poor runs overnight off the back of poor 12z and 18z. I’m sure we can all find the odd ensemble run to argue a cold spell is still a viable option but let’s be honest here - it’s a bust. On to the next chase….surely one has to land just hopefully not by the time we reach late March.

Really? Would say it’s fairly accurate- cannot see any cold spell across any of the NWP- maybe I’m looking at the wrong charts ? It’s a bust for next week, simple as.

I’d like to know what you’re seeing here - looks a bust to me unfortunately

Game over - time to move on here sadly.

Am I missing something here - looks a great run (GFS). V cold for the south and east especially…cold across many other parts too. Slight east progression but overall same theme - COLD

I’ll be honest here, I’m utterly speechless. If it can go wrong - it will- life as a UK coldie. Everything falls just right on the 06z…the storm off the east coast US plays ball (for us), we need a lot to go right. BUT if this does come to fruition it’s a genuine WTF moment. Models eh…

Not a surprise - been evident for days. I mentioned a few days ago Jan prospects look bleak. The current charts take us to the tail end of Jan now. Another winter month ticked off with nothing to write home about, bang average. All rests on early Feb for winter proper, the window is closing fast. Really poor models for anyone wanting wintry weather. It’s back to chasing rainbows …tough winter to accept this considering the high hopes/signals back in November.

The clock is fast ticking down on this winter and right now we are stuck in a major rut. The writing (for Jan) has been on the wall for some time, the current dire output is no surprise. I mentioned a few days ago I couldn’t understand some of the overly positive posts regarding potential cold. It’s not been there, bar the odd model run. When the outlook is bleak for cold and snow we all have a tendency to over amplify the odd run or ensemble permutation. When you take all evidence into consideration and look at probabilities (rather than possibilities) it’s been clear as mud there has been next to nothing to lend any confidence for wintry nirvana. The current set up just won’t allow for HLB to build. Instead we are chasing mid Atlantic ridges (allowing for brief northerly topplers), before the jet overruns matters and we return back to westerlies and unsettled conditions. I can’t see any signal for deep sustained cold any time soon, quite the opposite. Where does this all lead us- likely Feb and March to deliver. I can’t see an SSW saving winter cold sadly. Into Feb the sun gains strength quickly and the days are getting longer. Our key window is shortening fast with nothing overly wintry in sight. There are zero building blocks in place for HLB/deep cold - we are chasing scraps currently. call me negative/glass half empty - it’s realisms sadly. Nothing would make me happier to call for key signals to deep cold and snow - it’s just not there and hasn’t been there for some tine. It is what it is - a standard Uk winter in full effect. The chase continues…

It’s desperate at the moment- zero signs of any sustained cold, barely even 24 hrs of cold in the next 7-10 days.

Granted the further north you are for sure - here near London not seen anything as of yet and neither has most of the south. In order to bring everyone in the game so to speak we need more than a 1-2 day northerly toppler. Patience looks like being key right now, will our luck turn later in Jan/Feb??

Unfortunately nothing sustained on offer bar a day or two of chilly weather. It’s been a common pattern this winter, rinse and repeat. Zero chance of HLB with the current setup and this is needed to deliver what most of us crave - sustained cold and snowy conditions.

Really dire 12z runs for cold, nothing of any note.

Being close to London I can count on one hand the number of frosts we’ve had…desperate times -:)

Standard winter fare really, cool at times, rarely cold nationwide. Zero sign of a proper freeze. With the jet stream likely to fire up as a result of east coast US cold, systems pushing in off the Atlantic bringing in changeable conditions often wet and windy. I’m glad I’m not the only one failing to see positive signs for sustained cold anytime soon. Really informative post, enjoy reading your analysis. All the best

You’re sadly clutching at straws sir- majority of evidence disproves everything you’re saying - if you read my post carefully you will notice I stated zero sign of deep cold nationwide - accurate no? I also kindly asked you yesterday to back up your post with evidence- still waiting….

Life living in the UK sadly - we are all guilty of it. Chasing my first snowflake …

My point here is that despite some other posters promoting deeper cold possibilities I couldn’t really see where they were coming from. For sure much can change post 10 days (for better or worse - yes incredibly even for us folk down south it could be worse than what we’ve seen thus far). I try to look at probabilities based on all available evidence and my thoughts were bashed simply because they don’t forecast what some are craving. If we look back at the last few days (even with the odd positive gfs run) we’ve seen absolutely zero consistency across a NWP suite and with that models such as ECM have been barely interested in deeper cold possibilities. Things may well change for the better, who knows - it’s all guesswork. My call is based on gut feel and the way things are playing out currently. 10 days is a safe call ish, takes us to the second half of Jan with zero deep cold prospects in sight. You’d be a brave person to call Jan a below average month from here let alone one with deep cold possibilities.

Can’t say it’s a surprise to see such poor charts this morning. I’ve been highlighting this for days. Appreciate in a thread titled hunting for cold it’s difficult at times to remain balanced, we’ve all been guilty of it. Sometimes experience and a gut feeling tell you whether or not a cold outcome is likely or not. Whilst I appreciate this will be unpopular it’s also right to call it how I see it and not sensationalise needlessly. The next 10 days (as far as we can realistically look) has little to no chance of any deep cold. Beyond that I still fail to see anything which offers a route to a freeze which many crave. Nearly mid Jan not seen a single flake here just outside London. Jan cold prospects look very poor imo. Hard slog right now with the winter clock ticking away…we live in hope of something resembling winter into Feb - with no SSW realistic imo, we are clinging to hope more than anything right now. All the best

What concrete evidence are you seeing within a realistic timeframe which points to sustained cold UK wide?