weathercold

Really struggling to understand the optimism for cold - not seeing any strong signals at all.

Not seeing any signs of realistic northern blocking. With part of the PV left to our NW it will ultimately fail sadly. Appreciate yesterday’s GFS 12Z showed true holy grail- if everything falls perfectly that’s what can happen. But to balance this the majority of the output doesn’t show anything resembling this. ECM is not interested at all and the latest GFS is pushing back the potential height rise past the 20th now. Don’t get sucked in by the odd GFS nirvana chart is my advice. Would love to be wrong here but personally not seeing a ‘proper’ realistic winter Synoptics for a deep freeze. All the best

A bleak but wholly realistic picture of where we are at. We were in a hugely positive position back in November, arguably the most promising for many a year. What we have seen since then is a number of key ingredients fall, one by one. There is little to no signs of any sustained northern blocking taking place anytime soon. The PV will overrun any attempts to push high pressure north of the UK. Instead we will likely see a series of ridges attempt to build but ultimately flatten out very quickly. Whilst being called foolish (for writing Jan prospects off) is a tag im willing to take - I’ll be amazed if I’m sat here come Jan 31st with egg on my face.

Look forward to seeing this evolve …

Oh sorry …the good old CFS - dished out during desperate times like this If only it was accurate.

There are zero building blocks to cold across any NWP output currently. No point in trying to spin it any other way. Absolutely dire for the heart of winter. Would be amazed if Jan doesn’t come in above average temp wise.

A quick scan of the models this morning make for depressing reading if like me you’re a coldie. It’s more of the same sadly…rinse and repeat. Heights simply aren’t being allowed to build to our north which is what we really need for any sustained cold for our shores. I mentioned a day or so ago the picture for the next 10 days or so overall is mild. Aside from a couple of chilly days (not cold for Jan Uk wide) it’s back to mild, cloudy weather for many. 12 degrees early next week for much of the south as we approach mid winter…not much more to say. I’m not seeing any building blocks setting up for Jan (for cold) Quite the opposite sadly. Changeable conditions, mild and cloudy interspersed with brief cooler interludes which last a couple of days at most before being overrun from the west. This winter promised so much in Nov and early December…we couldn’t be further from that point right now. Most will be hoping an SSW can at least give us something resembling winter into Feb. Personally I’d rate chances at 20% right now…of course it’s possible but unlikely in my opinion. We have another 5-6 weeks of winter proper before the sun gets stronger and the days longer…it’s very much now or never to save this winter from another mild one to add to the bucket loads of recent years. The clock is ticking …..

Whilst not wanting to derail this thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one I just want to briefly detail where I feel we are at currently with current output. I for one cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most. We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim. I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week. We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth. Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is. We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena. Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned. rant over All the best

Whilst not wanting to derail the main model thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one. I cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most. We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim. I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week. We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth. Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is. We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena. Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned. rant over All the best

Building blocks look firmly in place

Read - unsure what signs you’re seeing (absolutely nothing across NWP supporting this at all). We all live in hope and I for one would enjoy nothing more than some cold and snowy weather but currently Jan prospects look extremely bleak.

Based on the current NWP output I sense even the most optimistic of coldies would struggle to spin what we are seeing churned out. -zero blocking on offer -heights pumping up from the south - Mid winter in under 2 weeks (not even seen a sleet shower in the south east). - Mild and cloudy next 10 days based on latest output (relative for Jan). Let’s not sugarcoat this, it’s extremely poor (for cold). Appreciate some are trying to lift spirits but realism is needed.

What is it close to ?

Nothing would please me more Ali…let’s hope!

There is some serious hopecasting on this forum at the moment. I appreciate many want snow but at times some posts are consistently unbalanced. I’m seeing nothing bar wintry showers on high ground up north and winds from a w/nw direction…cool not cold for early Jan.

Feels like we are jinxed at the moment - we all know if by early next week it was mild that rain front would be landing right over us

Was it ever game on bar two GFS runs and zero cross model agreement?

Winter porn? -4 850’s hpa in the heart of winter! Anything but sadly even at 16 days out (which is about as useful an indicator as a chocolate fireguard). Onwards and upwards into the new year …weather wise for cold at least it can only go one way from here.

I think many are simply interpreting the models as we see them to be fair. Considering we are approaching mid winter in 2 weeks, they look as grim as can be if you’re a coldie. After a 12-24 hr tepid northerly toppler which will barely make an impact anywhere on low ground it’s back to westerly winds and rain, temps 7-12 deg. A + NAO likely from next week too, 14 degrees outside (at gone midnight ) on Dec 31st! Whilst not binning 2021/22 to the all too familiar winter scrap heap, you’d be a brave person to call Jan anything other than another above average month currently. The clock is ticking …

For those up North …briefly yes. For the south it’s as you were really (for now). Personally I’d much rather 16 degrees in the south than chilly rain from a northerly toppler…each to their own I guess.

Appreciate many are trying to be positive here but this is a brief northerly toppler at best, beneficial for the North and higher ground for 24 hrs, that’s it. We are scraping the barrel at the moment, zero signs of any sustained northern blocking which we need for prolonging any cold. It’s pretty crud considering we are reaching the mid point of winter in 2 weeks.

I recall Catacol mentioning a few weeks back that the tipping point for this winter was due to play out during the now failed recent cold spell, it was literally on a knife edge. I have to say that now looks a great call, we had a ticket and the numbers sadly failed to come through. Let’s hope for an SSW in late Jan or early to mid Feb, currently I’d say odds heavily against but would love to be proven wrong.

It seems to be an increasingly uncommon occurrence year after year ( for majority of the UK). This winter had so many positive drivers going for a cold winter, I’m still scratching my head as to how blocking has failed to fall favourably for us up to now. Apologies if I sound overly negative re cold and wintry prospects, I think we can safely say until 7th Jan approx min there is next to no chance based on current NWP charts. We then look at the remaining 3 weeks of Jan - possible the dice can fall in our favour but right now so much needs to change, it’s more a case of blind faith right now …let’s hope our luck turns.

We had so much lining up in our favour a few weeks ago, quite amazing how quickly this changes. I wholeheartedly agree with many in that IF we fail (likely in my opinion) to pull out a deep freeze this winter with so many drivers on our side it does raise the question- due to global warming impacts do we need to be realistic that a cold spell (5 days plus temps close to freezing nationwide) really is a thing of the past? I’m increasingly thinking it is sadly.

You always know winter weather prospects are desperate when we’re chasing a transient 24-48 hr northerly toppler. It’s sobering to think winter 2021/22 has come to this. Whilst it would be foolish to write off Jan at this juncture, unless there is a significant hemispheric change in the next week or so I think Jan winter prospects are on extremely thin ice. This winter is fast becoming an all too familiar tale I’m afraid.