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weathercold

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Everything posted by weathercold

  1. Simply commenting on what the charts are showing. No different to your wild 80% confident predictions which left many of us scratching our heads.
  2. Confident it’s called this right despite the often more respected models majorly disagreeing.
  3. Fair play to GFS, looks like it’s called this excellently. Many of us champion UKMO and ECM…this is one great feat for the often underestimated GFS.
  4. Possibly, but we need a fast turnaround especially for those in the south. still time but we are reaching last chance saloon here I think
  5. You cannot spin today’s NWP output if you’re a coldie. We are miles away from the glory charts of a few days ago. Look how much has changed since yesterday afternoon. On to the next chase, hopefully into Jan let’s hope. Still 2 months plus left of winter.
  6. Major step back to a cold/snowy Xmas today sadly let’s not try and spin it any other way. Could still change but nagging feeling here this is quickly slipping away.
  7. Apologies for posting off topic …this caught my attention
  8. Has there ever been a bigger, more critical 12z than today’s…tipping point for sure. Let’s hope the GFS behaves and makes a full turn backed up by its ensembles. Let’s also hope UKMO shows the goods backed up by MOgreps and then the mighty ECM…please don’t go 2012 on us…we deserve some luck. Nervous times….so much as stake…
  9. As per the Met office forecast (Marco’s thoughts) interesting…
  10. GEM to some degree yes but GFS and ECM have taken us (at times) 90% there but we seem to just be missing the bullseye. can we get the high further North tomorrow and unleash the beast? Let’s hope so!
  11. Whilst I believe we are still very much in the game here we’ve not yet seen one main run deliver true wintry synoptics. With most notable cold spells of years gone by we’ve seen these in the 7-10 time frame. we need to start seeing these soon…key runs tomorrow.
  12. That may well be the case but when you have arguably 2 years out of the last 10 with such promise as this Dec/Jan it’s reasonable to see folk a tad optimistic. look back at most of the last 10 mid to late December’s….grim for cold. Who knows what will transpire in the next few weeks …but one thing is for sure we are in the game and for me and many that justifies an air of optimism at the very least. goodnight all, hoping for a cracking day of nwp output tomorrow.
  13. Regardless as to what may or may not evolve ….many are just commenting on various model projections. I’ve not seen one message stating an easterly is nailed? Optimism totally justified by the very fact the hemispheric pattern is unusual for December in our neck of the woods, based on recent years (lack of a significant high pressure pattern over the UK…pushing north.
  14. No dressing up the current runs, aside from some brief wintry showers this week for the northern hills it’s looking grim. If current charts are to materialise it’s a long way back from there to cold potential. Grim
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