weathercold

There seems to be a lot of inaccurate hope casting here which isn’t helpful for newbies. if you’re looking for cold/snow around Xmas the 18z is not your friend.

Uppers a non event for entire UK. Not sure what others are seeing here.

Wish I could share the enthusiasm here but unless you’re on high ground up north this is a total non event for most. Cold rain for most. Uppers of -4 approx nowhere near enough for snow on low ground irrespective of thickness. There’s also zero high latitude blocking in place so any temporary chilly conditions will be swept away with Atlantic fronts v quickly.

Very much in line with what I stated yesterday despite being dismissed by many. This is no deep freeze, chilly spell and relatively short in duration then back to mild, nothing out of the ordinary.

London

Fair enough and I hope we see snow would be great, I’m a coldie I assure you. Just need to start seeing more convincing charts across the suite with stronger heights into Greenland, temps slightly lower at 850 and hopefully temps will gradually get colder day by day if we can maintain the block

Are you seeing snow across most of mainland England? Are you seeing strong Greenland heights across the full NWP suite? I’m seeing temps wrong side of marginal across low level England, no sustained northern blocking and ground temps across all but the far north 4-6 degrees above freezing. Intrigued as to what you’re seeing …

But many have discussed lowland England snow and a two week cold spell…not seeing either.

Interesting to see many disagreeing - must be looking at different charts. a lot of hopecasting going on here - reality is they have downgraded aside from an isolated UKMO run.

Lowland snow and strong heights around Greenland were under 24 hrs ago…not now.

A definite downgrade today for longevity of cold- not seeing any lowland snow for most of England. Heights weaker than 2 days ago - can’t spin this - this is no deep freeze, temps a little below average.

Admire the optimism here but despite a few desirable FI charts it’s a bland outlook. Whilst I appreciate this is a forum for discussing model data we also need to be realistic and make fair evaluations based on evidence. Aside from a few toasty strat charts it’s pretty grim for cold. If you’re looking for cold and snow we are miles away sadly.

As mentioned a few days ago, I’ve seen nothing across any model suite to suggest anything different to what we have now. No sustained wintry weather before mid Jan and based on recent days happy to extend this out to late Jan now. It’s evident the pattern is stuck in a rut and we need a significant hemispheric pattern change, unlikely at present. I sense we are looking to Feb now for our next window and even then I think an ssw might be our best hope. A winter which promised so much in early to mid Dec is quickly becoming all too familiar sadly.

Struggling to see much if any positive signs for anywhere bar the far north and Scotland and even then the best we are looking at is transient NW winds which will come and go very quickly. For nationwide sustained cold (and snow) we are miles away from anything interesting for at least the next 2 weeks (and likely much longer). Gut feel here is we will be hoping for an SSW into Feb to spin that dice and hopefully land a 6…otherwise I sense this winter will be a long hard slog with very little reward bar the early December cold which is now a distant memory sadly. This isn’t a downbeat post more a realistic evaluation as to where we are at once you take emotion and hope out of any analysis and forecast.

Whilst not wanting to be accused of being a doom monger I really can’t see any chance of cold/snow for at least the first 2 weeks of Jan. We are looking at wk’s 2-4 now and there needs to be a significant upstream change if this is going to manifest later into Jan. Whilst many of us expected a front loaded winter I think a fair few including myself are quite surprised at how quickly such a promising hemispheric pattern has changed for the worse. We need to hope for some significant changes soon otherwise I fear we’ll be staring down the barrel at Feb as our last chance saloon…

Agree - compared to where we were just a couple of weeks ago, Greenland high, bitterly cold temps and a hemispheric pattern which offered many possibilities going forwards it feels a real kick in the teeth the way things have progressed. On to the next chase …eventually.

With little amplification upstream I’m not sure what’s going to break the pattern over the next 7-10 days. We need a dynamic shift upstream to shake things up, here’s hoping.

It’s evident the tide has turned towards less cold for Xmas and beyond. Those Iberian heights have really ruined what could have been a much more exciting outcome for coldies. we are realistically looking at mild temps nationwide with an outside chance of something colder in Scotland. Beyond that milder Atlantic driven weather into the new year with a +NAO setting up.

I think the most disappointing aspect this winter has been the signals back in November, we had so much on side. Yet the dice never fell right and all went to pot sadly. Not seen a single flake here in London and only a few sporadic frosts to boot, it’s really been one to forget. Let’s hope for a good spring now

Can’t recall a winter with such little comments on NWP charts day after day. It really does illustrate just how abysmal this winter has panned out. Aside from the failed cold spell in December (which even then wasn’t projected to be anything significant for much of the UK) there has literally been nothing to even discuss for weeks on end. Thankfully we are nearly done with winter 21/22, bring on some sun and spring warmth!

Agree - no thanks wind and rain signs next week for milder SW winds, hopefully not long now until some spring break warmth. If you haven’t checked the overnight runs…don’t! Spare yourself

Roll on Spring! Today’s models are again another conveyor belt of crud sadly. No end in sight.

Agree - front loaded/back loaded - this sorry excuse for a ‘winter’ has been non loaded. All these analogues - September patterns etc - waste of time in my opinion. So many variables come into the mix with the UK and winter outcomes - might as well flick a coin.

Roll on Spring! You have to laugh at the models we’ve been seeing - a real sucker after so much early promise. Looking back over the last few weeks it does really feel as though we’ve had all the key ingredients on our side (how rare is that) but sadly the dice just hasn’t landed for us It’s hard to take for sure but a lesson learned this winter that sometimes however promising the signals look unless it’s snowing outside it’s all fairytale algorithms that in reality mean very little on the ground. Time to look forward to some spring warmth soon, can’t come quick enough. All the best

How many days in Dec and Jan have registered below average in most UK cities? Not many … all depends what you interpret as cold I guess.