weathercold

Cold to the east totally absent by the 3rd…looks like we’ve missed a big opportunity to tap into what would have been a deep freeze. Northerly topplers simply doesn’t cut it for most in mid winter.

It’s still exceptional, doesn’t happen often. Not sure what your point is pal

Sure if we look back over 100 years you’ll find numerous instances whereby the min temp has recorded 15/16 deg in late December. My point concerns the last 20 years. It is still a relatively rare occurrence and more so over 100 years when compared to most late December’s. It may well become more and more common in the years to come …I wonder why? I’ll leave it there.

I don’t need to - I know it’s not happened often( last 20 years) hence my initial point. I’m interested in your findings…

Oh dear.

How many times in the last 20 years has the end of December recorded 16 deg daytime temp and 13/14 at night?

It’s still exceptional if it isn’t the norm…how many December’s in the last 20 years have registered 17 deg approx at the end of December with night lows of 14/15 deg? I think you need to check out your own ‘facts’ my friend

Exceptional warmth this week for the time of year. Temps reflective of late spring/early summer quite astonishing. Night time temps of 14 degrees in London at the end of Dec is quite something. There is no disputing global warming is causing these extremes we now experience more regularly now than ever before. As for this winter- I’m not one to hopecast and like to call it how I see it - my thoughts are we will need a SSW to save our winter this year - personally so many of the really positive signals seen in Nov and Dec have readily evaporated sadly. Only 3-4 months until Spring …whilst the weather this week will make you reach for the those t shirts and shorts believe it or not we are actually meant to be in mid winter -:)

Absolutely, they pointed toward a proper cold spell - could not have been more wrong. The 500 charts were a massive fail recently. No charts are fault proof, my advice is to not get too drawn in by any charts more than a few days out, more often than not they are wrong.

Whilst writing off a whole month (Jan) a week before it starts is foolish I think we need to be realistic as to where we are at right now. Many of the positive signals of recent weeks seem to be quickly ebbing away bit by bit. Hopes of an SSW look slim at the moment in my opinion and I personally can’t see any clear signals for anything other than bog standard mild and wet weather for the foreseeable. My current punt is a mild Jan and I sense we’ll be looking at Feb for a final window for winter. I know this sounds gloomy for coldies (inc myself) but I feel this is a realistic position currently. Let’s not let the weather bog us down, after all there are far more important things in life. Have a wonderful Christmas one and all

love the positivity mate

We live in hope mate …

But to be fair is there anything on offer currently showing true winter Synoptics for many? I’m all for championing wintry nirvana charts but I’m just not seeing anything resembling this at all. we all live in hope - right now though we are chasing shadows I’m afraid.

I love the enthusiasm and positivity but cannot see any truly wintry Synoptics offering deep cold and snow for many, it simply does not exist currently and would be misleading to say it does.

You can’t polish a turd, it very much feels as though some are trying to do just that. we are scraping the barrel right now, even if some do see a covering of snow, it will be very transitional at best.

As much as I’d love to see a prolonged wintry cold spell I’m not seeing anything across the NWP suites that reflect this right now. At best transient rain/snow showers then mild/rain into next week. What looked so promising on Saturday’s 12Z runs is quickly disappearing, looks like a damp squid to me. let’s hope Jan beings renewed wintry opportunities for all.

You’re assuming the eps has this nailed. It may well do but how confident are you based on so much uncertainty at the moment and constant ensemble flips?

Never known anything like this…

WTF!

Bar GFS the NWP is only going one way here

Game over! On to the next chase …it’s been fun this one, (I think)

When is the snow forecast for say the south based on the GFS and ECM? Based on yesterday’s charts surely you can concede we have taken many steps back ?

Fair point but right now we have UKMO and JMA out on their own GFS and it’s ensembles are not interested, ECM is largely not interested (not sure on the ensembles) GEM has backed off odds heavily stacked against right now …

But you could argue calling an 80% confidence call on a virtual event becoming reality 7-8 days out was heart ruling a head moment. I’m not saying zero chance chance, in Scotland it’s possible but for most the % chance is negligible right now.