weathercold

And the reality is that won’t cut it for most. That high could likely sit over us for days eating away winter or sink. We are now at the critical juncture of winter and we need results soon. I’m all for hyping cold and snowy charts if I see them, just don’t at the moment.

Writing on the wall here - we need some realism. With the ECM esembles, GFS, GEM and now the current GFS run we are losing this chase imo.

A UK centred high doesn’t cut it for many - most want proper winter in the heart of winter - with snow. Current projections aren’t looking likely.

ECM ensembles big step back today - Mike posted

Close to yes but not majorly supported and nothing sustained, flattened at day 10.

Not seeing the enthusiasm shared by some- we can’t seem to maintain a high lat block across most model suites, we can’t seem to tap into the brutal cold east of us. There is no longevity to this currently, at best a high bang over us. Wintry nirvana this ain’t, sustainable cold neither. All v sobering this morning compared to where we could have been a week or so ago pre the SSW projected collapse. Still not seen even one deep freeze run - says it all. Currently in Estonia, fresh fall over night -8 max daytime here today. Proper winter!

Slightly perplexed by your summary to be honest. The force of the Atlantic is very common for our shores and there are many examples of a strong jet stream across our locale at this time of year, not sure why you are so surprised by this? There is northern blocking across scandi next week with locations such as Helsinki, Stockholm going deep into negative temperature territory during the day with lots of blocking. I think your post is misleading.

We had some early northern blocking which we have showing their hand during many Novembers and then it disappears into thin air, returning usually by March. The hype was around background signals - simple as that. For all the hype we never saw one genuinely epic run across the main model suites.

?

Only if you believed a warming chart at 300 + hrs over last few days. Whilst some are not willing to concede I feel the writing has been on the wall for this winter for a few weeks now. Could not understand the early season optimism- felt it was being over egged tbh.

As mentioned yesterday what has really stood out for me so far this winter is the lack of even one or two epic runs- across any model suite. Forget ensembles here I’m talking about just a single ECM, GFS, UKMO model run. There’s been nothing that’s really got the pulses racing which I think is telling. It’s all been v meh so far and I really cannot see anything changing anytime soon. I appreciate there are some regular posters on here who keep peddling a backloaded winter, a cold Jan/Feb - cannot see anything that points to this. Aside from clinging on to desperate background signal crumbs it’s pure hyperbole stuff. Current charts across the gfs suite show potential warmings into Jan, they can’t get 7 days right I’d be v sceptical of 300 + hrs. Like others I think it’s time for a break from model watching, it’s beyond depressing right now and nothing is changing before months end. Have a great Xmas all WC

I’m struggling to paint a worse set of charts for Xmas - you have to laugh Wet and mild - awful.

I sense there are many a disappointed folk on here this evening and absolutely understandably so. For winter lovers we are in the trenches, no question. The charts are about as grim as they can get. I don’t think many should be surprised though, bar the odd chilly nwp run there has been no consistent signal for cold, especially not within the ensembles. So where now - current models across the 12z suite are sobering. We are relying on amplification to allow heights to build and right now we can’t catch a break. If background signals going into this winter were a non debate (I’m highly sceptical of these anyway but that’s best left for a separate debate) and we just took the current model projections as a guide going forwards I sense many on here would be waving the white flag. So where do we look for optimism going forwards- the old adage it can’t get much worse…changes can happen at short notice, it’s only December, background signals blah blah blah. All possibilities for sure but would you hedge your bets on anything notable coming to fruition? History dictates not… The weather world is a frustrating hobby, it was only last month many of us were salivating at the bitter cold to our east, lots of northern blocking with a hugely disorganised pv on the Siberian side. And yes that element still exists but maybe I’m alone here in thinking the November positivity feels a long way away right now. I’ve peddled a mild and wet winter for sometime now, much against my inner weather love for snow and cold. And yes you can argue it’s an easy call living here in the UK. Easy or not, it’s sadly all too often the reality. Expectations for Jan onwards are low for me, one year will be our year sadly I sense many will be waving that white flag sooner than we thought. WC

When you consider how disorganised the pv is and how many ‘background signals’ we have in our favour it’s quite staggering (and equally sobering and frustrating) we have not had one truly epic nwp run from any of the main models this winter. We’ve had a few cold ish runs for sure but nothing shouting wintry nirvana, not once. Will Jan change anything

If that’s a good run for Scotland we are in deep trouble

Can’t be discounted imo, one thing we can say is that cold /snow, high lat blocking is off the menu for some considerable time.

It was hardly much to begin with, it was desperate scraps if we’re being honest

With no northern blocking on show any cold can’t be sustained, the jet stream is too powerful. i think it’s time to move on from Xmas and look beyond into the new year. Hopefully Jan can show its wintry hand and we’re not chasing down that ticking clock to spring.

As disappointing as these charts are and with early January showing no signs of a dramatic change (background signal wise) the UKMO seasonal is looking more and more a decent call right now. Plenty of time for change but unlike some others I see no evident signal for cold/wintry weather. SSW to save winter 23/24?

Totally agree Nick, again not sure what many are seeing here. Looks utterly ghastly to me- you’re not getting any sustained wintry conditions from those charts, no chance.

Over many parts it will be, apologies wasn’t being location specific.

Wet, Windy and Mild.

All very predictable and unsurprising- damp squib for many over Xmas sadly. Not seeing that at all

Not seeing the optimism by Aaron at all, I feel there is a lot of hope casting going on which is understandable but can also be equally misleading for those who hang on to every word.

Morning, as expected 24 hours on any cold/wintry looking charts seems to be reducing rapidly. Whilst not wanting to be that person who said ‘told you so’ I really couldn’t see the over egging optimism of some yesterday. There is no concrete support for anything wintry for most of the UK, in fact quite the opposite. I’m not even confident hills up north will see much if anything over the Xmas period. A chilly few days possible, nothing more than that and temps around average for Dec UK wide. Some calling a cold and wintry Jan are making a brave call, fair play if correct. I’m not seeing much evidence to support this currently. Taking into account all available info, it’s looking very Atlantic driven through to the end of the month. A rather mild and wet Xmas period is a sound punt right now. WC