weathercold

These charts really are astonishing, how many LRF’s are a bust if these charts come to fruition. We are on the cusp of an historic February. Extraordinary.

The last few days model runs are definitely a tough pill to swallow for coldies. You do get the feeling this winter is fast becoming one of great potential, ultimately never truly realised. It’s also notable how few runs (if any) across NWP have bought in -10 hpa across any runs. Roll on spring!

Unquestionably high levels of NWP volatility currently due to the recent SSW. However, it does feel we have taken a few big steps back over the last 24 hrs in terms of advecting any deep cold towards us. So much promise recently but the trend is clearly moving in the wrong direction...for now. Let’s hope we see a better set of runs over the next 24 hrs, still enough volatility to give us hope things may change for the better over the next week but time is quickly running out.

UKMO/ECM have led the the way here, never in doubt when both singing from the same page.

You have to laugh, it’s what makes this hobbie so addictive. Just when you think the writing is on the wall...GFS makes you look a real fool. The atmosphere is clearly causing wild swings and we must try to remain grounded be it good or bad (model runs), huge 12Z’s later. Could we snatch victory from the jaws of defeat....tune in at 3.30 to find out.

I sense a key lesson learnt here is how quickly the tide can turn across NWP and not to get carried away by wintry charts days ahead which often don't verify. The atmosphere is clearly highly volatile at the moment but even taking this into consideration, the flip has been quite something. Let’s hope the SSW can restore some hope further down the line. Here in London we await our first flake of snow this winter....

What a stunning u-turn from UKMO and ECM! The ECM essembles had been pointing at a warm up for a few days now but that is some flip. Long way back to cold it seems now, the weather always seems to make fools of us.

I think this winter is proving very hard to predict. We are seeing many Lomb range forecasts going bust very early into the winter. Projected patterns aren’t behaving as they should and therefore this winter is arguably one of the hardest to call in many a year. Based on the way weather patterns look like playing out through Jan you would be a very brave individual to make a call against a notably colder and snowier winter compared to recent years. I would go as far to say, there is every possibility (and a realistic one at that) we may well at experience one of the coldest January’s in many a year.

would you be kind enough to share your original winter forecast? Thanks

A definite trend away from cold and snowy nirvana charts over the last 24 hrs, a 10 day ECM chart (unlikely to verify) doesn’t really cut the mustard. Hopefully the SSW will reap the rewards further down the line for coldies. It does very much feel like it’s on to the next chase now.

Just viewed the 18z....(picks himself off the floor)! WTF! I mentioned earlier not to get too hung up over the placement of the high 5 days +, it will likely move run to run, as expected at this timeframe. However, if it falls right, an epic outcome awaits as per the 18z GFS run. We’re in the game ....

I highlighted this earlier when a few downbeat posts popped up after the 6z. Expect many changes over the next few days with the placement of the high. However, anyone wanting cold and potentially snow should be very pleased with the 12z. UKMO is stunning!

The models are flipping around with the placement of high pressure at circa 5 days ahead and some are flagging the far reaches of FI for signals of milder conditions. This is a fluid situation, 5 days is a push for much accuracy let alone 10 days + Don’t get too hung up on over 5 days ahead, many changes ahead, be it good or bad depending on your preference for cold or milder weather.

Hope mods don’t mind me posting this, from Met..they seem confident E/NE winds source - Marco Petagna - Met

Long time watcher/reader, rarely post. Wishing all Net Weather members and followers a very Merry Christmas! May your wishes all be white ️

The 850’s look poor for most of the south ...0 looking at that chart

Struggling to see any positives with today’s NWP output. A clear lack of blocking, Artic high looks like having v little positive impact (for cold weather for the UK). Compared to where we were just a couple of weeks back we seem to be be venturing back into a much more familiar hemispheric pattern...

Anyone for the Control?

Hi Steve - The US (NE) looks like going into the freezer end of next week with heavy snow likely...how do you think if at all this will effect the BI?

Hi Steve - The US (NE) looks like going into the freezer end of next week with heavy snow likely...how do you think if at all this will effect the BI?

Thanks Texel...how do you see the weather in the NE US over the next 1-2 week period as I think this will have a sig effect on us going frwds

Hi Knocker When you say snowed in across the pond...are we talking US East Coast here or mainland Europe? cheers