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stokepa31

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Posts posted by stokepa31

  1. 2 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

    What is wrong with some (quite a lot of ) people?

    It's clearly a very damaging storm with official gusts already up to 88 mph, at least one unofficial at 95 mph and the worst still coming. Just because in your back yard you're not experiencing it (yet) doesn't mean you should disengage your intelligence.

    Dont feed them

    • Like 6
  2. 7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    GFS ensembles can't even agree at 12 hours out. Some rip 80mph gusts through NW England and others just keep it barely hitting S coast. Insane differences and shows how sensitive the whole situation is to small starting data vagaries.

    Yep may as well stick a finger in the air. I await ecm with interest as i think it will be divergent too.  

  3. 1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    Another model, NMM. Generally 70-80mph

    Screenshot_20220217-173918.thumb.png.8dd68c7b03ad637be8e1e821a65dd11e.png

    On balance of all models so far, I'd say what the Met Office warnings currently says is the middle ground between all the options.

    The most important model for me, though, will be the ECM - this was the best model for Storm Arden. Will it also chop its windspeeds down a little?

    Baited breath. Hope mods start clearing the junk please as tonights models roll. 

  4. 1 hour ago, Steel City Skies said:

    It is six of one and half a dozen of the other. One person's downgrade is someone else's upgrade with this evolving situation. What @JamesC is arguing is trivial and needless as run to run we will see the peak gusts slightly alter - for some decreasing, for others increasing. It remains a very dangerous storm.

    Indeed. Its yet to undergo cyclogenesis so room for variation on speeds and track. 

    • Like 2
  5. 7 minutes ago, RobR said:

    We seem to be right on the edge of the streamer over Cov/Leamington/Warwick. Not sure if anyone there has reports on how its going? A subtle shift in wind would be nice!

    Its on the weak side but we are starting to get an accumulation now the temp has fallen a bit. Hopefully the wind will stick like this a while 

  6. Just now, MattStoke said:

    Looks like it turns to snow as it pulls away southward from me. Central West and South West Midlands could see a few cm.

    Yea will depend on the 850s and the mix. I see a dusting of slush at low levels with maybe staffs northwards getting a bit more snow. Gonna freeze bug time by Monday morning. Interesting times land the cold and hope for streamers and shortwaves 

  7. I think initially streamers are where ti look. Hopefully some shortwaves pop up and give us more hope. Breakdown lools a long wayboff so no point in thinking about that yet. I think this block will resist the atlantic firnsime time to come and has the potential for a big reload with a scandi heigh looking for support going forward. Gonna be brrrrrrrrr ❄️span widget

    • Like 1
  8. 4 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Ecm T144 ... I don't think this low is going to get here?

    My forecast from earlier might need binning...

    I agree. I keep thinking back to how powerful the 2018 beast was when it pushed through so quickly. Now its got some resistance I think we will see it stall the low fully but where..... 

  9. 15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    The GFS isn't the only model showing that low in the Atlantic moving towards our shores by midweek- the UKMO also shows this possibility. Obviously it will depend on where the low ends up, but the odds are not in favour of a prolonged cold spell with such active weather systems moving eastwards across the Atlantic.

     

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    Im thinking back to the beast and it blew the doors off and sailed quickly into a weak Atlantic. Bit of energy resisting the east is a positive to me. Bring in the battleground

    • Like 1
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