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stokepa31

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Everything posted by stokepa31

  1. stokepa31
    Its no different this time. All you can do is follow the charts and look at the signals and what the models think and apply interpretation. Its weather and it changes but we can look at the output and have an idea where we are going in the hope we arrive at a good place for cold.
  2. stokepa31
    The world is looking promising. Woke up to first snow of the winter in normally unsnowy Coventry. Next few days will hopefully see full alignment of the models for a repeat performance on a larger scale
  3. stokepa31
    A few flakes in Coventry NE. Im expecting just under 1mm for the day
  4. stokepa31
    yip, all over bar the shouting, Been a fun few weeks following the charts though. Even though Coventry has had a poor showing of snow i have learned much
  5. stokepa31
    BBC national forecast now includes friday. they are still going for snow pushing north. im not so convinced
  6. stokepa31
    I dont see it currently, think today will see convected showers make it in and then melt as sun gains strength. 00z runs shows much less snow making it into west midlands for thursday but hereford and worcester would be my pick for a good dump. None of the forecasts seem to want to call friday yet so that will be the day if more western and northern areas are going to get anything substantial
  7. stokepa31
    Wash looks to be prepping up again. Perhaps the coldest uppers are starting to increase convected PPN. Doubt they will make it to midlands but someone will get a dump further out
  8. stokepa31
    If i had to pick somewhere to be for the next 48hrs id come to you. I think you will do very well
  9. stokepa31
    Thats because they dont want to speculate. lots of water to go under the bridge re friday.
  10. stokepa31
    There is a reason surface temps are recorded at 2m. Its a reflection that absolute ground temperature can be influenced by other factor such as solar radiation
  11. stokepa31
    Its no surprise snow is melting. Sun is actually pretty strong. surfaces soak up the heat. snow falls, covers and then melts as thermal feedback from the ground releases the latent heat prior to the snow cover
  12. stokepa31
    Not enough snow cover to bounce solar radiation so its absorbed rather than reflected
  13. stokepa31
    I dont think its been overhyped, th mod thread is for the interpretation and discussion of the models. If anything the SSW over delivered as it smashed the Canadian vortex allowing the block progress westerly at pace. Its not over yet. The end of the week could still be epic so for now its a case of sit tight and see
  14. stokepa31
    Thats more likely to do with the lack of moisture in the air than lack of sub zero temps. Gotta love dry air
  15. stokepa31
    A little kick to a more direct easterly would do me just now. Although I guess that could affect the streamer as the fetch will be shorter
  16. stokepa31
    does look to be getting more organised. Air across the channel geting colder and convection differential increasing??
  17. stokepa31
    i thought the netweather radar was fed from the MET. Ive got them open side by side and they're identical.
  18. stokepa31
    Looks a tad further south than GFS for the low. Id put my money on Staffs doing ok but not much south of there
  19. stokepa31
    GFS 12z location of the precipitation tomorow at 06:00. Progress south is near non existent through the day as it tracks east. Whatever we get tomorrow will likely be just the odd dusting.
  20. stokepa31
    Yes just starting to get a few flakes in CV2
  21. stokepa31
    looked like a whispy finger south of the main low to me but i live in hope
  22. stokepa31
    To be honest today was really about getting the cold in situ. Whilst tomorrow doesnt look great convective snow could increase as uppers drop lower so its not all over. End of the week still has a way to go before its resolved. Think there will be flip flops in position and extent of the warm air flow north
  23. stokepa31
    Tomorrow looked half good in yesterdays runs but it now looks like its shifted further north. May get a spinkle but all eyes to the end of the week for me now for significant possibilities
  24. stokepa31
    potentially epic but time will tell
  25. stokepa31
    Agreed, Greenland high is beefing up a little and closing the gate a bit
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