Dennis

GFS12z

gfs12z

i dont give up...'when the puzzle is going to fit

change MJO 8-1

icon12z

strato ideas

NOAA 22th

AO- yes Jackpot here days are mostly cold , but this week not all the time dangerous icerain for norway in South parth tomorrow

Vortex lobe over the UK with northwinds

northwestsnow i was yes not anymore

1 chanche still there......setup from 20-22th

CFS from 18th

Knowledge to an SSW; it doensnt mean with one thats happened or happening always cold is forseen it depends on the downwelling from the strato into the tropo (also its target) see to this : WCD - The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events (copernicus.org) its a puzzle that has to fit AND ;at the day when an SSW is happening NOTHING is already happening on that day ..... the stratocold needs to come down first So if we see cold late febr it isnt from the SSW thats forseen ....thats into midMarch if all is succesfull

Good day to all hmm i didnt see that much on the charts last years 10hpa vortex core over UK

newest AO ideas

a big MJO change today 4-5 was yesterday

interesting on NOAA HP position

split Vortex signs late Febr

SSW signals around 19-23

NOAA from 19th

im still in for cold (i know it isnt easy )

to much HP on a wrong pos. (for now) warm west Europe cold Scandiland .... later could be better for cold

NOAA rising HP iceland

spring delay forseen