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mountsbaysnow

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    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, PersianPaladin said:

    Words of wisdom.

    The GFS solution, while having edged closer and closer towards the ECM in showing the trend of height rises towards Scandi - may actually be a sign of what eventually happens in reality. The modelling of the polar vortex is proving difficult, and it will really come down to whether it maintains its position and intensity, with the core east of central Greenland OR (as per the ECM) retreats poleward with the East Siberian vortex ramping up. The main point however is the issue of time and progression. The signal of a vortex weakening and upper-level warming is acknowledged in both the GFS and the ECM, albeit the former is considerably slower in terms of the pace of vortex bifurcation. That time-delay is what counts, because effectively it results in shortwave-genesis eating eastwards and northwards across the Atlantic into our part of the world. While by T200 onwards the vortex weakening on the GFS does materialise, its already too late and the core of the High has been edged southwards with convection and CAA running off south towards Greece et al.

    Agreed as we have just experienced within a 48hr window our snow is now rain.

     

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

    It's precisely 10yrs to the week from the infamous 'Easterly that never was' of Jan' 2006. ALL the models predicted a monster Beast from the East then collapsed to nothing in 36hrs. I'd stocked up the freezer and piled the house full of wood and coal. The bitter recriminationations rumbled on for months on the forum.

    But its also nearly 30 years since west cornwall had its last snowfest so anything goes....hopefully...

     

    • Like 2

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    St Michaels Mount and the beautiful beach there would look stunning with a covering of snow! Fingers crossed this delivers some good snow down your way which often misses out. The longer the cold can last the better chance everyone in the UK can see some snow.

     

    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    St Michaels Mount and the beautiful beach there would look stunning with a covering of snow! Fingers crossed this delivers some good snow down your way which often misses out. The longer the cold can last the better chance everyone in the UK can see some snow.

    view from our bedroom.on the odd occasion its beautiful this was a few years back post 2010 I'm hoping for something a bit more spectacular than this as this is pretty much the max we get here.

    File9634.jpg

    • Like 4
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    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Smiler1709 said:

    So the big question is, can the models with all the background signals and all the agreements suddenly drop this huge swing to cold? 

     

    Absolutly great to see such cold charts but with all the sudden downgrades over the last few years I'm just worried this could all go bang still. 

     

     

    well if it does it would be an epic come down and i will cry

     

    • Like 10
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