[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

surely west Europe looking colder and we are about to pull it is n 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

Lloyd1 I too am new to this area but highly interested , if anyone can answer your questions I would appreciate it . I too am unclear if we are seeing a further wave two attack and SSW of some sort why I’d Gfs and others going for zonal winds in the time period of 10 days , or is gfs not picking up the likely SSW . Or is it still marginal for a SSW which may or may not influence the Atlantic .

thanks in advance 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

optimus , thanks but that is pre 2000 figures , honestly we are much colder in north sea than anytime i can recall since 2000.  With the up comming easterly  , i think the usual wet snow on east coast may be less marginal in later January as north sea is much colder. 

 

usually an easterly never gives us east coast snow in the north until february  , lets see what SSW comes and the effect may be superb for the east 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

dorset , 

 

sorry not sure where you got those temperatures from but they are wrong , been watching the weather for four decades and those numbers are wrong , usually the north sea changes slowly month to month and not as quick as you show , but thanks for the info 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

Is the north sea colder than it should be at this time of year .below is the forecast for mid January and it shows the middle of north sea 6 C . I am sure this is 1-2C colder than our normal years and will have an effect on the est coast  marginal areas .

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

GFS  this morning and this afternoon trying to bring cold down from arctic but getting close but failing .  will a SSW  help this northern plunge or blow it off westwards.

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

a long way out on the gfs , but the cold pool around northern europe and far north above iceland looks increasing cold . all we lack is some deep cold .  I woudl like to see some -10c 850 close to uk . 

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

as a real amateur but watching charts for 40 years , surely the temps are too high to get widespread snow . the European airflow seem to mild as the air into western Europe is coming from south and not north. 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

are we talking a potnetial  SSW in late Feb that may effect the weather in UK  what 3 weeks later in late March 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Bobbydog 

 know what you mean and those charts suit me as I live exactly where the hit with maximum snow , but I was hoping to make up for the last 20 yrs of poor winters , with a monumental event . Happy if this stays as modelled just worry a trend shows a slip to less than -8 uppers 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Whilst I agree we should not moan if we get a 850 air at -15c rather than -19 , it does worry me if we get -8 rather -12 . In my experience the -8 gives us wet snow ,sleet at this time of year . We must not see the real cold slip into France , hoping next model runs don’t follow the gfs 0z run . 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Tanden , I am in yarm , pretty close to stckesley , the change in model for gfs worries me this morning , hoping the ne t models show easterly still with severe cold 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

I am from the north east of England and GFS to me is a bit disappointing this morning , i hope this is not the start of a trend to have the high further south , yes its cold but for us in north of uk not fantastic cold  like the early models were suggesting 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

I am 52 yrs and been watching the weather for over 40 yrs . When i was around 13 yrs in 1978 i remember the charts very well . we had a strong easterly around mid febraury  and max temp around -3 across a lot of UK. I lived in Newcastle and i recall blizzards like i have never seen. Newcastle was cut off from rest of country.  The models are showing charts identical to 1978 and this is the first time since 1978 i can recall seeing the same setup.  With the air crossing the north sea being so cold with a sea temp around 6 C , this will give us ice days , but the snow showers off the sea will become heavier through next week and east coast will look like armagedon. 

 

Truly i have waited 39 yrs to see this chart set up with the high over scandi and a low coming up from south.  Amazing that ECM has now followed the GFS and i am 90% certain members on here are about to see a historic event. 

 

Uppers of widespread -13 Will see minumums of -10 C all over and day maxs of < -2 C 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

Well , after the excitement and hype on here , today in the north east we have rain. Yes -10 uppers but rain . I Recall the abuse I took when suggesting we need at least -9 uppers for snow to be told it can snow at -6 . We have to deal in reality , this cold spell is pretty poor unfortunately , not below zero at night and at 3 during day about 1 c too warm . All sad . 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

3-4 days of cold and pressure high , a little lights snow for a few , then mild for another week or two . 

As some on here are about to find out an easterly taking air from south Europe is no good at all . What are the experts seeing that I am not , this looks great for three days then all the potential is blown away . This all predicted clearly 48 hrs ago by gfs , it should not come as a surprise to many today . 

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Been watching these charts for 38 yrs and unless some of you are really professionals , then I remain sceptical that we are seeing only three days of cold max 2 c and then just cool. But some on here seem pretty confident , so let see what happens . 

If we truly see the charts change and show deep cold for two weeks , then I  will accept there are some very  bright people on here. 

But at least we have something generally more exciting than the last few winters to speculate on.  

Just in my long experience as an amateur we need the High not to sink from today's position . 

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Guys , what appears to be coming  in the next few days appears so little compared to what we thought only yesterday. At the moment not the two weeks of severe cold , but a little cold for three days.  Pressure too high when it is cold for significant snow  and when pressure lowers the mild air comes in.  Pretty awful . 

 

The high is still there next week and after but cool air only from its SE direction. We need the Scandi high much further west and not to sink any further . 

I dont know where the optimism on this board comes from. It is from years of cold and snow starvation .

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

harsh 

 

agree but if we get -9 all the other factors become secondary . If we do get snow at - 5 iit is  poor and does not stick 

 

 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

swilliam 

 

- 6 uppers is not good enough , that is cool not cold 

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

The timing of mid February reminds me of the ? 1978 easterly around same time , we just need to get the easterly in with sub zero temps day and night  and then snow will follow

Looks great potential but need to see this on charts still at weekend

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

incredible potential and with Siberian high lurking at the end of the out put , february looks very interesting. If vortex does help at end of January , this looks like the most exciting charts for many years. What i really like is the timing of the year for this et up. I know  2010 was good but if it occurs in early february this could beat  2010. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

at 222 living in the north east England  this looks superb and -13 getting into scotland. This is proper cold and more like it   North Sea temps heading to 7 degrees , so this will be awesome. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

yes , the potential from this is more exciting than that Euro high with south easterly 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Guys , the easterly you show above , is never going to do much for UK for snow and any fun. People keep posting future easterly  charts and they are not  good easterly , we need a full easterly  or NE to get decent snow.