Matthew Gill
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Posts posted by Matthew Gill
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8.0c showing on my thermostat in the kitchen ATM,
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Was watching the neighbors 150ft poplar tree bending in the gusts earlier, and wondering if tonight is the night it finally falls over with 50-60mph gusts possible from a unorthodox N/NW direction
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Sleet here in Bedworth, winds really gusting here now
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Beautiful
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1 minute ago, sheikhy said:
Are these showers meant to get any heavier?!
Not really, I'm hoping for more convection after midday but I'm not holding my breath for it.
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I never understand ALL the hype about the beast from the east. For here you need to get the cold air in and then have a atlantic low push in against the cold air then stall and slide away south east.
That's pretty much the only way to get a decent snow event here.
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Just too far west here, light snow and a small dusting overnight.
The convection needs to pick up a bit to make it further inland
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1 minute ago, Snowman. said:
Your culprit is these two buggers.
12z had one shortwave that was the left one, 18z spawns two stopping the high from stretching NE.
At least we would get some snow out of this instead of just cold dry air I suppose
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Small flakes blowing in the wind here on and off all day, just a few more now
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1 hour ago, Frosty Winter said:
GFS 12z is an absolute stonker out to t216, it’s easily one of the best runs I’ve seen this winter so far at this timeframe. Wow!
Wow that would be -5 maximum temps midday. Some places maybe double digit below all day.
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Just now, MattStoke said:
Some people just continue to take charts at face value. It’s very frustrating. Doesn’t matter how many times they’re told how badly models underestimate showers. There will be a lot of surprised people next week!
Yep, showers and streamers come out of nowhere with little warning sometimes
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Isles of Scilly under the -9 line at 96hrs
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3 minutes ago, Jason M said:
If (and it is 'if') week 2 looks anything like current modelling you won't have to worry about anything falling from the sky other than perhaps a few tiny snow grains. There wouldn't even be any frost on surfaces either as the air would be too dry.
At least I could go ice skating on the canal
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3 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:
Spot the difference! 6z vs 12z!Its less of a bifurcated mean now, that is, many of the members are broadly sImilar to the mean, it’s not a fudge of super amplified vs flat members. This gives more confidence.
Remarkable consistency from the GEFS.
UKMO headed that way after significant snow for many. GEM consistent too.
Synopitcally, these charts are an absolute delight with the WAA and CAA so obvious you don’t need any background in meteorology to know what’s going on.
The path afterwards is a mystery at present but this Scandi high has got real momentum today.
If I know the ECM op, it’ll be one or the other tonight. Though the EPS will be more useful from a predictive standpoint to see if they match the GEFS. And given the op’s affinity for ‘copying’ the GEM, I have a feeling it might pick one from the cold cluster tonight too!
1060 high! How would you go about removing that
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16 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:
Incredible GFS output lately. Most of the country below freezing from tomorrow until the end of the run. Very good setup with a freezing cold continent.
Big ramp but February 2021 could go down in the history books for cold. Just need to work on the snowfalls!
Snow would most likely come from streamers I suspect, very difficult to pin point at ling range
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Just having a look at the winter of 1963 charts
14th Feb 1963 vs 11th Feb 2021
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Jet at 186, still pushing to the south
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Just can't make it's mind up here, one minute it's heavy rain the next it's snow
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It seems anything birmingham westward ATM for snow.
Currently in coventry and it's heavy rain here with the odd sleety interval
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A very good day, 6cms in all here.
Great day building snowmen and sledging.
A couple of pics, firstly overlooking warwickshire and the other of my street. The snow underneath has compacted and turned into sheet ice.
The roads are going to be terrible in the morning
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About 6cms here today.
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Just now, sheikhy said:
Ooops forgot bout that how could i!!i would say its getting very close to that in this part of the midlands!!been out in the snow all day!!anymore chances this week?!
Maybe Thursday
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42 minutes ago, D.V.R said:
Arperge still going for the slider Wednesday into Thursday.
Bank!
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Indoor Temperature Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Been out tonight and just came back to a new low in the kitchen
7.0c!!
Need to crack the sleeping bag out tonight