[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

 just come across this windchill chart. Quite spectacular to see. 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

A -17 over england

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Greenland high?

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Skull and crossbones on the gfs 

 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Another 50 miles south?

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Very big gusts of wind there 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

The jet is not in a faverable position on the 12z only Scottish mountains for snow on Wednesday. Cold rain everywhere else. 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

34 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And the obligatory charts showing the 'potential' SSW.  Starting at 204

Peaking with this at 348

It's not going away!

A real novice here. Am I right in my assumption that a warming in the strat means more pressure on the vortex which means more chance of cold blocking? Or have I got this totally wrong? 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

-8 getting in there

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Because the jet seems to be about 100-200 miles further south on this run and tacking a more se track nearly missing the uk all the way through as opposed to the 12z where it roared across us. Wouldn't this allow the colder air to sink south and have less chance to get mixed out, so wouldn't-4 uppers be enough for snow to most places??

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

The jet dropping south and tilting se 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

The jet looking to go more se at 114?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

The angle of the jet is looking better imo. A few more adjustments in the coming days I think. 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

The jet is now being forecast to go s/e past and over us instead of the split to the north from earliet

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

The warm air pushing up from the med has really dispelled the cold uppers across all of Europe.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Good old gfs. Really deepening that low by Greenland.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

Cold zonal from 240hr for 6 days dumpings of snow and 850s that won't make it marginal yes please.

Yes please. Never mind cold from the east I'll take this. Also I posted this model and got it blocked by robomod for some reason.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Noooo!!!

i shop there

That's why mums go to Iceland ?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

That Atlantic low is even deeper on the 18z, 935mb. Think I will wait for the 00z runs.

And Iceland gets blown away

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Does this chart show the a scandi high linking up with a high in the Atlantic and if so what would the outcome be??

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

16 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Indeed it does brings in a very mild southwesterly from Azores by day 10 I wouldn’t blame those who wrote off the remainder for January if that verified. Good thing there’s so much water to go under the bridge.. 

I wouldn't write it off. This chart shows lots of interest I think.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Looks like we should get some nice strong winds in this run. Especially for Scotland and maybe wales and the South West. 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

East coast and Scotland snow chance. Everywhere else cold rain?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Just learning about model reading but doesn't this show an Iceland high where there is usually a semi perminant low. Wouldn't this allow a blocking effect in the Atlantic all be it only briefly. Wouldn't this allow for a e/he over the uk? Or have I got this totally wrong?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Looking through the models I'd take a n/nw anyday. To the east the models try to build cold but never really manage a sustained period. Looking to the north and nw I think offers more potential for cold and snow.