Day 10
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Posts posted by Day 10
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still refusing to get excited............. I'm approx. 3 miles from the coast, 23m asl, and the BBC graphics didn't show snow for my back yard, it's gona rain
I said earlier this cold spell should last at least a week and there may be other chances after tmr/thurs if we miss out. Yeh I am pretty much the same as you only other side of mersey, not great for snow round here. things need to always fall perfect for us
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Reading between the lines on the models/met o, I think the best chance/conditions for more widespread sleet and snow showers looks to be between Thurs 3am to Thurs 9am. Accumulations near coasts doubtful.
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I'll take that polar climate
Yeh just a dusting lol
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I knew I was right not to get excited
My take on things
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Net weathers take on things
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Can people stop hanging on these ruddy weather apps. IMO, they are garbage.
That's also goes for those local Met Office forecasts with those symbols. I think they are bit of a farce, IMO.
I don't understand why people seem to give so much credence to computer generated forecast apps??
I've just entered my location in 4 such apps which have returned 4 different outlooks for Thursday's weather.
My advice would be simply to follow the latest MetO forecast (not the app) and read through the Model Thread.
I second that
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Do you think we will see any snow Polar Climate
Yes this is our best chance of the winter, over the next week at some point.
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From what I've seen tonight in the models, this cold spell could be one of those that slowly but surely gets better and better and upgrades as we go along (in snow terms). Already esp from the ECM things look like prolonging. Nothing to be dispondant about tonight from me!
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Bbc northwest weather saying its going to be the coldest spell for 2 years
That forecast to me says even the coast can see falling snow. I think we have our best chance from Sunday as winds veer more northerly so less modification from the Irish see and more chance of lying snow if more oranised bands of snow move south
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I don't think I could trust the euro4 model to be honest. It cannot be always predicted and may well change by this time tomorrow hopefully for the better.
I bet its just teasing us.
Yes it has been wrong before like most models when snow is forecast
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The way I see it is we ALL have a decent window between Wed pm to say Tues (or even longer) to see some falling snow and many will see lying snow. This is going to be a pretty unstable air stream coming over the UK so more organised bands of snow showers could form at quite short notice. So if you don't see snow tmr/Thurs do not despair or throw the towel in as something may just crop up which sweeps down from the North esp between Sun to Tue. I live very much in a rubbish area for snow, so to start with I'd be happy with a few half decent snow showers whether they stick or not. Good luck to everyone, let's hope by this time next week we'll all be fairly happy!
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The best window for snow looks to be from about 1pm wed through to about 11am thurs before less cold air moves in. Colder weather begins to make a return through Saturday with no doubt more snow chances but too far out to even bother thinking about. Places much further inland and with elevation obviously will fair far better.
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Heres the live coverage of Winter storm Juno hitting NY:
At least you don't have to wait until Wed to watch snow falling.
Really interesting watching this storm develop in the US, New York already getting hammered now! 1 to 2 or even 3ft in places and here's us desperately after 1cm plus lol
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I would like to think hail/sleet/snow showers will get this far south at times. I remember a few years back I think it was 2010 snow showers from a west to north westerly made it here on the Wirral. And yes it was even colder then so snow settled very easy. But I am just making the point that I think some showers will make it here.
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Heres the live coverage of Winter storm Juno hitting NY:
At least you don't have to wait until Wed to watch snow falling.
They even get a starter before the main course!!
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Heres the live coverage of Winter storm Juno hitting NY:
At least you don't have to wait until Wed to watch snow falling.
Nice one, oh we can but dream
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Take note everyone the GFS was yet again much colder than the GEFS mean but the control follows this.
http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150126/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png
Along with the UKMO/ECM every indication that this cold spell could be more prolonged and turn even colder into next week.
Yes TEITS cold cold cold
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The S Manchester shower train is the most annoying thing I've ever witnessed and I never even knew it existed until December 2009. NWly airflow used to be true NWly airflows.
This would do us just fine
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I'll be watching the rain/sleet passing thru these parts wishing it well in its transition to snow further inland LOL :-)
Argh don't that's a terrible thought!!
It's become apparent that the UK will be seeing a spell of prolonged colder than average weather, with North West England heavily in the firing line for the first two days at least, and then with further opportunities thereafter.
We start off with a very active cold front sweeping south eastwards on Wednesday morning, clearing most of the region just after dinner. What I find unusual is how quickly the colder air catches up. The GFS is suggesting widespread sleet and snow as early as lunchtime as the front clears through, I don't think this will be the case with surface temperatures sitting around 6-10C, whilst it can snow at 6C, I think it's very unlikely in this case, but as the colder air sinks in (which it will do so quickly) it'll turn readily to snow on the back edge for some, especially over higher ground, this is demonstrated nicely here on the NMM, although I'm a little skeptical to the extent earlier on as I feel the NMM is mis-modelling the precip type:
The reasons behind this, are the dewpoints:
Surface temperatures look OK, although we'll struggle to see any evaportative cooling with the winds this strong!
We see the Irish Sea coming to life on Wednesday too with showers piling into many northern parts of the region, although it's not awful indicative of many showers south of Southport, the flow is far too westerly, so I have an awful feeling that the south of the region are going to be bitterly disappointed with the outcome, Manchester as usual looks to be the prime location, places like Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, all in the firing line I'd imagine.
This was about the best chart I could find for PPN for us all, isn't great. But as I say, the NMM is never good with PPN I find, and it's certainly a case of now-casting as usual. But all in all, it's looking like a rather disappointing spell of snowy weather for us in the south. Further north, enjoy!
I was going to post more, but I can't for the life of me be bothered hahaha
Cheers Backtrack for taking the time there
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Lol 8 degreess and lightening for us in wedsnesday apparently! With s sleet shower on thursday http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644547
I never take notice of bbc weather, not the symbols anyway, always a waste of time. It shows rain showers but mentions snow in the write up.
Just wish the uk was 200 miles further north then we'd all be happy!
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Yep could be for me too, one thing that get me though is that dew points are below zero which from a westerly/north westerly is prety rare.
Probably the same for you as it is for me in that its the dew points that always kill it for us? so i'm far more hopeful than last week, things went as said from the met office and our dew points were around zero to +1, until the winds veered that is.
850-1000's look good too
Just want to see a covering, not even bothered if it melts when the warmer sector moves through on Saturday, just want to see a covering for a few hours lol!
Me too mate, it's all about just getting that snow fix however little lol
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I still think from these charts and looking through the 12z runs so far that the warning zone still has time to expand a little further south. I think the coast can see snow showers, whether they accumulate or not is up for debate. Wednesday night will be the best chance.
Some places inland are going to get plastered though. And even if some do miss out there will still be other chances I feel.
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I stand by your superior knowledge and bow down to you
As you seem to know the climate very well for MBY there is
No more to add, perhaps you could give me a daily update
Just like the Met office.
do you know what I dont know why I am bothering with this
fellow north westerners I hope the snow comes to you, but for
now I am done with the whole thing
C.S
See you tmr then
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A little more amplification than the 12z
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North West England - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Yeh deffo we live in one of those little snow shakers, except with ours the snow falls on the outside around the dome lol